The Playoff Stakes for Vikings This Weekend
Per FiveThirtyEight.com, the Minnesota Vikings currently possess a 40% chance to reach the playoffs in 2021. They have a 5% probability of upending the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North crown and a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl.
None of that is ideal for a team holding all-in stakes. But most players, coaches, and some fans believe each NFL team “just needs a shot” once a squad enters the postseason tournament.
Because of that mentality, the Vikings game this Sunday versus the Green Bay Packers is important — but not necessarily a season-ender if Minnesota finds a way to lose at home (again).
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Here’s a reasonable rule of thumb to remember if dealings for the Vikings begin to go pear-shaped against Green Bay in Week 11. If Minnesota loses to its archrival on Sunday, then Mike Zimmer’s team must topple the San Francisco 49ers on the Sunday after Thanksgiving and the Detroit Lions in Week 13.
The aforementioned 40% for Minnesota’s postseason probability dips to 25% for a week with a loss to the Packers. Not great, right? But if the Vikings go on the road and beat the 49ers, the odds climb back to 49%. After that, a win in Detroit — they better beat the Lions — brings the purple team to a 59% playoff participation probability.
The Vikings have a genuine opportunity to stifle the undermanned Packers this weekend. Green Bay is without Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, Robert Tonyan, Z’Darius Smith, Whitney Mercilus, and maybe even David Bakhtiari. Typed out like that — the Vikings really should handle the Packers. Yet, you never know with division games, especially versus the most-hated nemesis.
Should the Vikings create a winning streak out of the next three weeks — beat Green Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit — they’ll be in a commanding driver seat, owning 86% odds to reach the playoffs.
If they beat Green Bay, lose to San Francisco, and win in Detroit, the percentage is 49%. Losing to the Packers and the 49ers but then beating the Lions situates Minnesota at a meager 17%. Therefore, it does the franchise no good to lose versus Green Bay and San Francisco while taking care of business in Michigan.
To keep playoff hopes semi-real, the Vikings must beat either the Packers or 49ers, with a successful trip to Detroit. That is — it is nearly required to win two out of the next three games.
Winning them all is the goal and a close-to-guaranteed ticket to January. Meanwhile, if you’re a Vikings fan — you probably are if you’re reading this minutia — cheer against the Saints, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons, and 49ers in the coming weeks. The more those teams lose, the better the postseason chances for the Vikings escalate.
So, it’s simple. Either win all three of the next few games or find a pathway to two out of three. That’s the blueprint for Vikings fans who want the team to get in the dance and “see what happens.”
Losing two out of the next three would put Minnesota — and the head coach’s job security — on life support.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
Also Read: Here Comes the Cavalry for Vikings
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