Shockingly, the Vikings-Chargers Game Will Probably Be Close
If your utopian vision is to watch the Minnesota Vikings finally win a game convincingly against somebody, it probably won’t occur on Sunday.
The Vikings are certainly capable of beating teams handily — they could’ve throttled the Baltimore Ravens last weekend but refused to do so on offense — but this contest against the Los Angeles won’t be the place for it.
Watching the Vikings throughout 2020 and 2021 is indeed a heart-jolting experience with all the squeaker games. But guess what? The Chargers participate in more tight games — if that can be believed. During the last two seasons, the Vikings are Chargers are #1 and #2 for the total tally of games decided by seven points or less.
The difference between the two franchises is the duration of the close-game cycle. For the Vikings, getting involved in these anxiety games seemingly every week is new.
Before 2020, Mike Zimmer’s Vikings either won decisively or lost decisively. Everything changed when 2020 began. As for the Chargers, they’ve been embroiled in down-to-the-wire affairs the whole time. From 2014 to 2019, the Chargers compiled the fifth-most games decided by one score or less.
Even the swap at quarterback doesn’t matter so far. The Chargers conduct close games with Philip Rivers and now Justin Herbert in the saddle. It’s just in their DNA amid the last half-decade to burrow into the 4th quarter with a small score variance.
The Chargers are favored by three points to knock off the Vikings in Week 10. And that’s the standard “home team respect” for a point spread. Ergo, sportsbooks consider the Vikings and Chargers surprisingly equal otherwise.
Minnesota — we write this every week — must find a way to close out a game against a winning team. Through eight games, the Vikings are beating the losing teams and losing to the winning clubs — like clockwork. The Vikings losses: Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, Cowboys, and Ravens. All of those teams have winning records. The Vikings wins: Seahawks, Lions, and Panthers. Those teams are losers for now.
Should the Vikings fall to 3-6 with the Packers on deck at home, the Week 11 game could very well determine Zimmer’s immediate future. It would be tricky for Zimmer to exit U.S. Bank Stadium with a 3-7 record, just losing to his primary foe at home while remaining the skipper.
So, the ideal scenario for the Vikings is to finish off the Chargers in crunchtime — because we all know it will go down to the final possession.
One final note — if the Vikings lose to the Chargers, it will be the first time since Zimmer’s rookie season (2014) that Minnesota lost all AFC road games in a season. In each season since 2015, the Vikings grab at least one victory away from an AFC team on the road. In that regard, something’s gotta give.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
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