Why would a “run first” team stiff one of the league’s most talented young backs in Cook?
Joe Johnson
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Dalvin Cook is going to play through the end if his rookie deal as originally signed, ladies and gents. That means no new contract, nor inflated 2020 cap hit for the standout fourth-year back as both Cook and the Minnesota Vikings apparently walked away yesterday without a deal, presumably because the two sides were still too far apart.
ESPN’s Courtney Cronin reported back during the beginning of the negotiations that the Vikings had Cook pegged at $8-to-$10 million a season, where as Cook and his agent had him around $14-to-$16 million.
Then there were reports of Cook starting negotiations with the highest number for any running back in the league, besting Carolina Panther’s superstar Christian McCaffrey (whose cap hit maxes at $16.3 million and who also is essentially the entirety of the Panthers offense by himself).
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/christian-mccaffrey-21749/
With Cook missing half of his first two seasons (so basically a full season) and also not finishing his one productive year, 2019, without injury it made sense for the Vikings (who have all the leverage here) to not give Cook a max deal.
When you combine the fact that 2019 also coincided with the arrival of Gary Kubiak, whose scheme is known for producing star running backs essentially out of whole cloth, and the fact that the Vikings have Dalvin Cook jr. on their roster in the bell cow Alexander Mattison, it makes even more sense.
Lastly, when you also take into consideration that no one knows what the salary cap will be in 2021, or rather, how much smaller the cap will be in 2021 (and beyond), and that the Vikings can and most likely will franchise tag Cook (presuming he stays healthy in 2020) and you get your answer as to why talks for a deal broke off.
Cook is set to make $1.3 million in 2020. He is coming off a superstar making 2019, having rushed for a career-high 1,135 yards and 13 touchdowns, while also catching a career-high 53 passes for 519 yards. While great numbers, it’s hard to think that some combination of Mattison and Mike Boone (along with fullback CJ Ham who is reportedly going to be utilized more as a runner in 2020) wouldn’t be able to get 85-90% of that same production without increasing the cap hit from the backfield by 20,000%.
While Cook will need to mirror that while staying healthy if he hopes to cash in in 2021, assuming the Vikings don’t franchise tag him (which could lead to a real holdout this time). It may be safe to say that his time in Minnesota began to end the second the Vikings extended Kirk Cousins (who has a guaranteed $45 million coming in 2022 the second the 2021 season begins).
Stats have shown that teams that invest over 17.5% of their cap on their quarterback and running back typically don’t fare well. With Cousins already due that much and the cap most likely being reduced thanks to COVID for at least a season or two, even signing Cook to a steal of a deal of $10 million a year would put the Vikings at well over 30% of their cap going to TWO players (if the cap hits the minimum number of $175 million as laid out in the new COVID CBA).
Again, with Kubiak (and offensive line coach Rick Dennison) most likely being able to get similar production out of Mattison, whose third round pick is looking more and more like both a wise decision and a harbinger of the current situation.
It’ll be interesting to see how this impacts things on the field, as we may end up seeing a lot more Mattison (and Boone) in 2020. The Vikings could still have two seasons with Cook, with the ability to tag him, before either letting him go to the highest bidder or signing him once the cap situation normalizes.
But if we see a lot more of Mattison and Boone in 2020, it could be a sign that the team plans to move on from Cook, which may be the best move for an organization who can’t afford to pay premium money to a running back that will only accrue more injuries and thus time off the field as he gets more touches.