I’ve taken a stab at projecting a depth chart for the Minnesota Vikings, not as it stands now, but what I expect to see by Week 4 of the season, barring injury. To that end, I’ve decided to add color to it in order to give a snapshot of my opinion of each player. Each color is how I expect that player to perform for the year, despite the fact that I recognize many of the players will not make the roster—think of each player as being judged “if they made the roster.”
Further, there are some bands of uncertainty. There are five basic grades: Elite, good, solid, questionable and bad. Those are pretty simple and are judged relative to the rest of the league.
Then there are four shaded grades: rookie—optimistic, rookie—pessimistic, unknown—optimistic, unknown—pessimistic. Again, those grades are projections simply for 2014, not my opinion of the long-term prospects of the rookies. Both Anthony Barr and Jerick McKinnon are listed as pessimistic rookies, but I think that the ceiling is high for both of them and the coaching staff in place has a good chance of unlocking it, just not in 2014 (or in early 2014 at least).
Because the receivers in the Norv Turner offense are expected to be more versatile than they have been, being listed on the depth chart at the slot, like Greg Jennings is, doesn’t mean the majority of the snaps will be there or that they are the “third receiver” on the roster—just their primary role. So in this case, I think the receiver roster is Patterson, Simpson, Jennings, Wright and Lora. It looks like three slot receivers, but Patterson and Simpson will both play flanker and split end roles, while Jennings and Wright should play both slot and flanker roles. I would not be surprised to see Patterson in the slot, either.
I’ve only marked Patterson as “solid” instead of “very good” because I think route ability is going to be even more important and his development is still at a critical stage, now facing the burden of learning multiple positions. If all goes well, he’ll be the second receiver to Jennings until late into the season or next season where he should explode onto the scene. I acknowledge I could be massively underrating him.
Further, the rookies are graded optimistically and pessimistically with the fact that they are rookies in mind. So Teddy Bridgewater, who is marked as optimistic, I expect to be above average for a rookie starter, even if that doesn’t mean above-average for the league (and this means in the last seven or so years, not just the last two). I have also moved some people around from their listed position or their position last year (Audie Cole, I’ve put at SAM). I started two rookies and projected one sophomore to take over the starting role (at MLB) and debated doing that at left guard, but ultimately didn’t. We shall see.
The unknown grades apply to people who have either spent time on the roster but not on the field or have had less scrutiny from me going in (usually undrafted free agents). The ones on the roster I may have scouted in the past, but I do not know how they’ve developed. Regardless, I have a soft feeling on them, but recognize that I have a very wide band of uncertainty—that I know I know less. If I say I am optimistic on an unknown someone, by the way, I don’t think they have starter capability like I do for the rookies or veterans with the same, more certain grades. I simply think that they have a better chance to perform above the expectations of them than perform below them.
One of those people—Andrew Sendejo—HAS spent significant snaps on the field, but I marked him as uncertain, because if he continues his current level of play, it will be below average. If he improves, like I think he does, it will be great for the team.
One final note: I have included Austin Wentworth, despite the fact that he hasn’t signed. Therefore, the depth charts below will include 87 players (I am excluding the specialists).
Offense
Defense
Takeaways: 1) the offense is on the verge of being elite, and the defensive line is not too far behind, 2) linebacker is still a huge issue—even if you disagree with me on Barr and Greenway, because depth is a big problem, 3) safety is a position of strength, but the Vikings have made a choice to upgrade some things at the expense of the cornerbacks.
I am sure you have questions about players I projected/graded. I will attempt to answer them in the comments when I have the time. No need to point out that there are “25” starters. There are 25 people at the top of the depth chart at their position, specialists aside, that will take significant snaps. Just know that this involves wild speculation and projection for a system we haven’t seen the players in, on both sides of the ball—so don’t get too worked up.
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I only have one query Arif.In a presser last week ,Zim said that in his system the Sam is now the Will and vice versa,and some of the other positions are flip flopped.Have you been able to take this into account,and if not does it affect the ratings?
I love your work and appreciate the effort that goes in to your articles.
The designations are flipped, but the responsibilities are the same. Chad/Will this year is the same as Chad/Sam last year.
I'm not sure what even means. The Sam and Will linebackers aren't lined up on the left or right side of the field. The Sam is lined up on the strong side, or the side where the TE is lined up. This requires Sam backers to be bigger so that they can drive blockers into running lanes (if the offense runs to the strong side).
Will backers are usually smaller and faster because if you run to the weak side, you're counting on some misdirection or speed to make up for the fact that there are fewer blockers.
I don't understand how the roles could be reversed exactly. Have a smaller faster guy take the side where the TE is lined up? It may work better in coverage, but it seems like he'll get washed away in the run-game.
My bet is that the backers will have dual responsibilities, and they'll be asked to do multiple things. I'm curious if Arif has a better idea of what flipping the backers means.
Sam/Will designations are traditionally based on the tight end, but there are a number of coaches (I think most well known is Perry Fewell) who based the designation on the alignment of the three-technique, which means that the over/under front determines the Will/Sam, and an over front will flip the designation between the two.
Aussie61, will the Zimmer-led Vikings ever equal the great Parramatta Eels club with Ray Price, Peter Sterling (the Joe Montana of Rugby League), Mick Cronin, Brett Kenny, and the others that made history in the grand final victory for the ages back in 1986? That remains one of the greatest games that I have witnessed. Your commentary, Willsie, parted the clouds.
Thank you for the visual depth chart. I see that you believe that Greenway's decline last year has influenced your thoughts enough to believe that it just wasn't the injury, but that he is descending in his abilities. You may be right, but I hope that you are wrong.
I also wonder how much Greenway's issues last year were due to ill-advised desperate attempts to cover up for other people out of position- both other LB and secondary people. Arif goes by the numbers, and I wouldn't argue that, I'm just not sure that there wasn't more going on here. There has to be a reason that Zimmer has not said anything or made any moves against Greenway. He must see something there.
There is such little evidence that linebackers look bad on film because of "covering" for other linebackers. I don't know what that looks like, but it doesn't mean widening your drops, flipping your hips early, making the wrong coverage reads, taking the wrong angles or breaking down tackles incorrectly. It certainly doesn't mean anything in man coverage, where he's been terrible and if it meant anything in zone coverage, he's playing zone coverage incorrectly.
There was one interview with Zimmer where he suggested that Greenway may play Mike. Also, "somewhere" I read the Mike is not responsible for dropping into coverage - I believe it was in reference to Jasper coming back, and how he may fit into Zimmer's scheme better as he was not very good in coverage.
There is no such thing as covering for others mistakes.You do your assigned task,and do it well.If other guys mess up their assignment then that is an issue for the coaches.This is one of the best pieces of advice a coach ever gave me.
Arif has said he believes Greenway's decline started a couple years ago. Specifically, he said that his pay cut was warranted (whereas other paycuts might not) because he's had "three consecutive years of poor play."
He has been bad for three years.
I agree with the linebacker comment that we are weak. I like our picks in the draft but had hoped they would have picked up atleast one more linebacker. I believe that picking Barr is a huge step but it will be a weak spot in our defense this year.
I know Ponder's not awesome, but do you really think the difference between he and Cassel is so large? Or do you think Cassel is on the bottom end of "Questionable"?
Are you sure? Ponder has 10 and a quarter-inch hands!!!
Great work!
I agree, that is a lot of green and blue for the first-string offense, and it is pretty easy to be optimistic about it.
Defense does seem to be much better that we had any right to expect at the end of last season, but the LBs are definitely the soft underbelly there. I hope that the lack of activity regarding them in the draft represents a justifiable faith the coaches have in the existing staff. Your alignment looks quite sensible given the personnel.
One other thing stood out to me on defense: Scott Crichton backing up Griffen on RDE. From what I can gather, he seems a similar player to Robison. In light of the latter being 31 and unlikely to play out the final year of his contract in 2017, isn't it more likely that Crichton would be groomed to play LDE in anticipation of eventually replacing Robison?
I know you're a big fan of his, but I gagged again seeing Sanford still listed as not only the starter... but deemed as "solid"... our opinions of him are drastically different. I do agree with Mauti as the starting MLB, think the kid is going to be special now that he's healthy.
WHAT IS WRONG WITH SANFORD?
He's been hitting his coverage marks better than the average safety in the last two years, he's been breaking on the ball better than the average safety, he boxes out receivers better than the average safety, he hits the run angles better than the average safety.
PEOPLE ARE STUCK IN 2011 WHEN IT COMES TO SANFORD.
Amen! A-frickin'- MEN!
On the other hand, I might have listed Cox as Unknown - Optimistic and Brinkley as Unknown - Pessimistic, the former because last year might have been a fluke for a guy who seemed to be developing into a pretty good starting cornerback, and the latter because, well, because - oh, hell, he was injured last year so I'm still holding onto the hope that Brinkley can be a legit two-down MLB. Basically, I'm hoping he pulls off a Sanford.
Great work once again Arif.
I was surprised to see the 'Overrated' Johnson playing in front of Yankey.
I was pleasantly surprised to see Mauti starting. I so hope he can stay healthy. Great player, great leader.
Hope to see Richardson replace Loadholt soon too.
On paper, it looks to me that we have made huge improvements on both sides. If the new coaching staff is what it's purported to be, we're contenders this year
I am very high on Loadholt, who has put together two fantastic consecutive seasons at right tackle.
Johnson/Yankey is interesting, and I'm very curious as to how that will play out. Like you, I hope Yankey beats him out. Just had a feeling he'd have to wait a year, though.
Fwiw - PFF rated Phil Loadholt as the best RT in the league last year.
I would have never guessed that in a million years. Good news for sure and I'll need to pay closer attention I guess. He was turnstile his first couple years tho.
Arif,
...does anyone else still write for VT? It seems like you have this place on lock down :)
You're about to see some great stuff from Lindsey!
Carl is still contributing weekly, but I've overshadowed him with all these posts. Brett and Adam have been busy, but they'll come back.
Criticizing Greenway is sacrilege! Come on Arif. You know this already.
He has legions of fans who swear he is still good all the while ignoring the fact that he is already 31 years old and highly unlikely to all of a sudden get a heck of a lot better. These fans do not realize the simple fact that NFL players rarely get better once they hit 30. In fact, it is extremely rare. Usually Hall of Fame type players are the ones.
The funniest excuse is that he is "covering" for others. I have never ever seen any tape evidence of Greenway so far out of the zone he has to drop into because he is several yards away helping out another LB. That is asinine and no one who has said it can provide you any tape evidence of it being true.
It wont matter though. This will be his last year here. He is set to make 7.1 mil next year with an 8,8 mil cap hit. There is no chance on Earth he is going to get that money. If he does then the front office is need of a major overhaul.
I got 99 problems but Greenway ain't 1.
I wonder if there is really a point in distinguishing the H-back and the Fullback positions. Certainly the U-position is distinct from the other two, but don't those other two require the much the same skillset (blocking, some receiving, and rare carries) and to some degree even share personnel?
Is there enough difference in role between H-Back and Fullback to merit anymore distinction than you'd place in the types of Edge Rusher (ROLB and RDE)?
Good point, especially with the Turner offense.
But given that both Felton and Ellison have taken significant snaps, and only Ellison plays in-line, for now there is a distinction. I do know they have separate position coaches. In terms of the technique and generic responsibility it is more different than 3-4OLB and 4-3DE.