[Note: Brad Davis found methodological disagreements with an article written by the ever-productive CCNorseman at the Daily Norseman, which suggested that Adrian Peterson was in for a decline based on his career numbers. Davis, who doesn’t take a stance on Peterson’s trade value in these pieces, ran through the data with rigorous statistical analysis—here are the results to part two of his study, answering some criticism. Part Three, which looks at 33 other running backs, will be up later]
In the first part of this blog post, I attempted to address the question of whether there was any evidence for a decline in Adrian Peterson’s performance as a running back during his career in the NFL up until this point. A number of people on here and elsewhere on the internet brought up a number of questions and I am going to take this opportunity to try and respond to the one I found the most interesting.
A user on reddit questioned the use of all 7.0625 (7 full seasons + the first game of the 2014 season) in trying to determine if there has been any decline in Adrian Peterson’s play. Specifically they were concerned that by including all of the early seasons into the analysis could mask any recent declines in his performance. This brought up a good point underlying the bigger question of ‘Which data/games should be included in the analysis’?