Sunday, March 1, 2015
Blog Page 100

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Bob McGinn, one of the most trusted names in sportswriting, has talked to a number of NFL officials that have indicated that they may move the draft back even further than they did this year.

As we all knew, the “scheduling conflict” farce was exactly that, but it’s kind of weird to see the NFL basically admit as much.

People have already been tuning out of the draft with the additional two weeks, and another set of weeks to wait might be too much. Even if the NFL found its media holdings increase their revenue as a result (namely the NFL Network and NFL.com), I doubt this maximizes the long-term revenue prospects for the league. The draft is a spectacle that itself creates millions of dollars. The idea that there may be no turning point on that is ridiculous, and the NFL is doing itself wrong.

Naturally, general managers and coaches—who have already complained about the changed schedule—will be in even more of an uproar as their vacation time disappears and rookies get the playbook even later.

Assuming this all happens.

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Nothing new to add on the day of the draft, I’m simply uploading a number of passing charts for later reference that I didn’t add earlier.

First, quarterback box scores adjusted for drops and distance of throw, with a key on top:

QB Box Scores - Key

 

Then the box scores of all those quarterbacks:

QB Box Scores

Then the three passing charts—Raw, “Pro-Style” and “Coryell” when adjusted for distance:

Raw:

QB Passing Charts - Raw

Pro-Style:

QB Passing Charts - Pro Style

Coryell:

QB Passing Charts - Coryell

I was hoping to get Tajh Boyd and Keith Wenning done, but alas that wasn’t the case.

 

General Manager Rick Spielman said at the 19th Annual Arctic Blast in February, “I really, really think we’re going to do a lot of movement in the draft.”

Well, with the draft just hours away, not much has really changed. The idea that the 8th pick is flexible and the thought of Spielman trading back to aggressively peruse more picks is still very much on the table. The Vikings have eight picks in the 2014 NFL Draft, and Spielman has gone on record saying the goal is to compile 10 selections annually.

 Eight of Rick Spielman’s 61 draft picks since 2006 have earned Pro Bowl honors. A 13 percent Pro Bowl success rate for a team committed to building through the draft is a strong number. As good as Spielman is at directing a war room and doing his due diligence, he unfortunately has never successfully struck gold at the quarterback position. Viking fans are hopeful that 2014 will be the draft that Spielman strikes it rich at the most important position in professional football.

 How much influence will new Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner have in Spielman draft strategy? And will Zimmer encourage Spielman to continue his recent tradition of drafting two players from the same school?

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A few days ago, I put together a consensus big board (to be updated on Tuesday) and contrasted the difference between the types of “Top 100″ boards people will put together before the draft. An interesting corollary to that are the mock drafts released by endless publications both online and in magazines.

This time, I put together a consensus mock draft. Or rather, four of them.

 

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With the NFL Draft finally approaching, getting a consensus on the talents of the prospects may give us the best possible understanding of who a team selects or whether or not they did a good job (as far as we can tell). Unfortunately, not every board is constructed with the same goals in mind or with the same amount of information available to them.

NFL Draft Tracker, a great website for getting detailed reports on prospects as well as a general understanding of the theories driving the draft, made a good point not too long ago: consensus boards don’t make a lot of sense if we don’t discriminate between those who are purely evaluating player talent and those who are attempting to reflect the consensus of the league.

That’s fine—these draft resources generally answer two questions: 1) “Who’s Good?” and 2) “Who Are We Going to Pick?”

The good news is that we can easily do that. For the most part, while insiders like Rob Rang and Daniel Jeremiah do an excellent job pointing out how they differ from mainstream views, the major networks reflect often the consensus of the league, and their draft rankings do not change much from each other. At the very least, their low variance suggest that their rankings are influenced by what they hear around the league, if not driven by it.

 

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