Jeff Diamond Lays Out the Vikings’ Offseason Blueprint
As I continue my blueprint for the Vikings to return to the playoffs in 2026, I first will address the elephant in the room as we approach Super Bowl Sunday.
On Sam Darnold
I’m happy for Darnold that he is headed to the Super Bowl after a tremendous performance in the Seahawks’ NFC title game win over the Rams last Sunday. He’s a humble guy and a great teammate who gives credit to others. He isn’t ripping the Vikings for letting him leave.
It’s great for him that he has overcome last year’s late-season flop (due as much to a shaky offensive line as to his lousy play) and even his shaky second half of the regular season with too many giveaways in Seattle.
But nationally and a bit less so locally, there are a lot of media people and fans doing revisionist history and playing the what-if game, suggesting the Vikings made a huge mistake in not keeping Darnold.
Former Vikings GM Sizes up the 2026 Offseason
Anyone who says today that they foresaw Darnold’s playoff success this season after his dreadful play in the two 2024 season-ending losses is blowing smoke. I fully admit I was on board with the Vikings brass’s decision not to franchise-tag or offer a long-term extension to Darnold following the Lions and Rams fiascos.
It was logical to pass on a three-year $100 million (plus incentives) deal or a $40 million one-year franchise tender. And capitalize on J.J. McCarthy’s rookie contract while expecting him to be the season-long starter and play well enough (with a better O-line) for the team to return to the playoffs, and then McCarthy would be even better in 2026 in his second season starting.
The offensive line injuries to all the starters except Will Fries were a huge issue. But the biggest mistake was in not having a better No. 2 QB and not sweetening the offer for Daniel Jones to the $20 million plus big incentives range or more if necessary (he signed with the Colts for $15 million on a one-year deal) and after Jones left, not finding a better option than Sam Howell, Carson Wentz or Max Brosmer in the end.
No one expected McCarthy to miss seven games due to his sprained ankle and concussion, which set back his progress. The Vikings wound up needing one more win to make the playoffs, and a full season by McCarthy (who was 6-4 as the starter) would’ve gotten them at least one more victory (Wentz and Brosmer were 3-4 in their starts).
I hope Darnold leads the Seahawks to victory over New England on February 8, but it won’t change my mind that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell made the right call in letting him walk last March. They just should’ve tried harder to keep Jones or find a better No. 2.
They also should’ve passed on signing injury-prone center Ryan Kelly and put his $9 million salary toward sweetening the offer to Jones and signing a healthier, quality new center.
On Brian Flores, Daronte Jones, and the O-line Coach
As I wrote last week, Brian Flores’s extension as defensive coordinator is great news for the team, and it appears he will not be moving on to one of the many open head coaching jobs.
O’Connell and Flores now have a key opening to fill after Daronte Jones left to become the defensive coordinator in Washington. Jones was well-respected in his role as the Vikings’ passing game coordinator/defensive backs coach. He did a fine job in elevating the play of 2024 Pro Bowl corner Byron Murphy, 2025 free agent signee Isaiah Rodgers, and safety Josh Metellus, among others, over the years while having a solid relationship with Harrison Smith.
Flores obviously is the most important defensive coach as the play-caller and scheme-setter. The secondary coach is the second-most important coaching position on defense. Without an excellent DB coach, more blown coverages and missed assignments will show up, along with less effectiveness in man-to-man and zone coverage against the talented receiving corps around the NFL and on blitzes by the safeties.
On the offensive side, we await word on who will be the new offensive line coach after Chris Kuper was not retained. Will assistant O-line coach Keith Carter be the replacement, or will O’Connell hire someone from outside the organization? This is a critical spot to fill with a coach who can improve the O-line’s consistency in both pass protection and run blocking, and coach up young players such as last year’s top pick–guard Donovan Jackson (who played well for a rookie).
The O-line coach must have all the players up front in sync (starters and backups), and there will likely be a new starting center who has to be indoctrinated into the Vikings system and coordinated with his teammates.
The Blueprint — On the Salary Cap
There’s some concern among the fan base that the Vikings are estimated to be $40 million over the projected 2026 salary cap (per Spotrac). Trust me, as a former NFL capologist, that it won’t be difficult for the team to get under the cap and find surplus funds by the official start of the 2026 league year in mid-March.
I expect the Vikings to start with a restructure of Justin Jefferson’s contract in which his $25 million base salary in 2026 will be converted to a base salary of about $1.5 million and a new signing bonus of $23.5 million, which will be prorated for cap purposes over the remaining three years of his extension.
When factoring in his original signing and option bonuses, his 2026 cap number will drop from $39 million to around $23.3 million ($15.7 million in cap savings), and if the Vikings extend Jefferson one more year, they can pick up another $2 million of cap room.
There’s little doubt the team will release too often-injured center Ryan Kelly to save $8.75 million against the cap. DT Javon Hargrave is a release candidate, and that would pick up around $7 million.
OT Christian Darrisaw has four years left on his deal, and his contract can be restructured for about $9 million in cap savings. A three-year extension for OT Brian O’Neill could reduce his 2026 base salary from the current $18.9 million to gain close to $13 million in cap room.
With the above moves, the Vikings would pick up about $56 million in cap room this year to put them in good enough cap shape entering the new league year, and they could add more cap room by restructuring and/or extending other player contracts, such as OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, TE T.J. Hockenson, and DT Jonathan Allen.
The Blueprint — Free Agency, the Draft, and Better kick coverage
Once their cap is in better shape, the Vikings can try to re-sign key free agents such as linebacker Eric Wilson (second-leading tackler, team leader in tackles-for-loss with 17 and he had 6.5 sacks) and third wide receiver Jalen Nailor (29 catches, 444 yards, 4 TDs last season) along with making decisions on players such as C.J. Ham and Harrison Smith who I think they should try to bring back.
Then it’s on to free agency and signing or trading for a new No. 2 QB, signing a new veteran center (and perhaps drafting one early), and a quality vet corner to replace last year’s third corners—Jeff Okudah until he was injured and Fabian Moreau, who filled in as a stopgap.
The Vikings currently have eight draft picks (including No. 18 in the first round and second- and third-round picks) and will likely gain a couple of compensatory picks for the loss of Sam Darnold in 2025 free agency and other players, such as Daniel Jones. The team needs an excellent draft to add young talent and quality depth to the roster at spots such as the starting center and backups on the offensive line and in the secondary, along with perhaps an explosive young running back.
The Vikings also need better and more reliable players on the kick coverage units. That means drafting and/or signing linebackers and defensive backs who can run and cover and will be smart enough to stay in their lanes on kick coverage.
That was what three Vikings didn’t do on the last kickoff in the second Bears game (after the Vikings took a one-point lead with 50 seconds left) when they ran out of their lanes as Devin Duvernay cut across the field and returned the kickoff 56 yards to set up the winning field goal. That return likely cost the Vikings a playoff spot and perhaps the NFC North title.
Around the NFL Observations
1. It’s been a rather bizarre head coach firing/hiring period with 10 jobs eventually opening up. I think the best new hires are Kevin Stefanski to Atlanta and John Harbaugh by the Giants. I think Robert Saleh is a solid hire in Tennessee, and ex-Packers DC Jeff Hafley to Miami seems like a reasonable move. We’ll have to see if the hiring of Chargers DC Jesse Minter plays out well for the Ravens after their surprising dismissal of Harbaugh.
Mild head-scratchers to me are Ravens OC Todd Monken to Cleveland, 36-year old Bills OC Joe Brady being promoted to head coach in Buffalo and former Packers and Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy going to Pittsburgh (although he is a Pittsburgh native and the Steelers have a great track record in head coach hires over the last 50-plus years with Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin all having long and successful runs).
2. The Vikings and other non-playoff teams can have hopes for quick future success next season when considering that the two Super Bowl teams were among six new playoff teams in 2025.
The Seahawks went from 10-7 (and, like the Vikings, the first team out of the playoffs) to 14-3 and the top NFC seed, then followed with impressive wins over the 49ers and Rams. The Patriots made a much bigger jump from 4-13 to 14-3, and the AFC’s No. 2 seed before playoff wins over the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.
I’ll make my Super Bowl pick next week and react to any Vikings news as the calendar turns to February, with the Combine and franchise/transition tags on the horizon, along with pre-free agency moves starting to hit.
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