Will Vikings Return to Playoffs? Predicting the Vikings 2026 Season Game-By-Game.
With the expectation that Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback and a talented roster to support him on both sides of the ball, here is my prediction on how the 2026 season will unfold in a highly competitive NFC North where it wouldn’t be a surprise if any of the four teams finish on top.
While most media analysts wait until closer to the September opener to make their picks, I figure not much will change in training camp and preseason unless there are major injuries to star players, which usually doesn’t happen with limited fully padded practices where quarterbacks wear red jerseys and can’t be hit, and starters play few snaps (if at all) in the three preseason games.
A Fast Start Would Change Minnesota’s Whole Season
The past few seasons have seen the Vikings go from 13-4 division champs in 2022 to injury-ravaged 7-10 in 2023 to 14-3 wild card team in 2024 to 9-8 and one game out of the playoffs last season. This pattern says 2026 should be a playoff season, and I’m going to agree with that projection.
Sept. 13—Home vs. Green Bay: WIN…The Vikings split with the Packers last season after sweeping them in 2024. I think the Packers are a bit weakened by the departures of edge Rashan Gary, LB Quay Walker and WR Romeo Dobbs, but the biggest factor is that Micah Parsons will miss the early part of the season with his ACL recovery. I expect Murray to have a successful Vikings debut with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison having big games against Green Bay’s suspect corners.
Sept. 20—At Chicago: LOSS…The defending NFC North champion Bears have the league’s most difficult schedule as a 2025 first-place team and have lost several key players, including WR D.J. Moore via trade and Pro Bowl center Drew Dalman, who surprisingly retired.
Ex-Viking Garrett Bradbury is a downgrade from Dalman, so the Vikings can beat Bradbury up front, especially if first-round DT Caleb Banks is healthy. I see a close game the Bears win, with QB Caleb Williams leading a late drive, as he did in Week 11 last season at Minnesota and in several other games.
Sept. 27—At Tampa Bay: WIN…Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is in a contract squabble over an extension, which could be a distraction for him and the team, and his top receiver, Mike Evans, is now in San Francisco. Tampa Bay is an average team coming off an 8-9 season in the NFL’s worst division—the NFC South. They lost seven of their last nine games, giving the division to Carolina. The Vikings get a road win in the September heat of Tampa.
Oct. 4—Home vs. Miami: WIN…The Dolphins are in rebuilding mode with new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan, new head coach Jeff Hafley, and new QB Malik Willis, all of whom came from Green Bay. They traded their best WR Jaylen Waddle to Denver. This should be as close to a blowout as the Vikings will find this season. 3-1 out of the gate is a nice start.
Oct. 11—At New Orleans: WIN…The Saints could be a sneaky good team led by an under-the-radar second-year QB in Tyler Shough. But the Saints have a ways to go talent-wise, and they come off a six-win season. New Orleans is not an easy place to play, but I like the Vikings to notch another road victory.
Oct. 25—Home vs. Indianapolis: WIN…Coming off the bye week, the rested Vikings will see their former QB Daniel Jones and will be focused on controlling Jones and Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor (1,585 rushing yards and 18 TDs last season). We all remember the Vikings’ NFL-record comeback for a regular season game four years ago when they overcame a 33-0 halftime deficit at home.
The Purple won’t need that big a rally this time as they get an important win and an impressive 5-1 record before the schedule turns nasty.
Nov. 1—At Detroit: LOSS…The Lions are an angry bunch after their 9-8 finish last season that included a sweep at the hands of the Vikings. Detroit will prosper from their fourth-place schedule and should make a return to the playoffs with their talented skill players and an offensive line that should be improved over last year.
The Vikings will play the Lions tough at Ford Field but fall short as Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown make enough big plays to secure the victory and tie the Vikings for the division lead through seven games.
Nov. 9—Home vs. Buffalo: LOSS… It’s the first of four prime-time games for the Vikings, and it’s a big challenge to win over a strong Bills team led by top QB Josh Allen.
The last game with the Bills was the incredible 33-30 overtime win for the Vikings highlighted by Jefferson’s fourth-down circus catch. Murray or McCarthy—whoever is playing at this juncture—will need a huge game to win this game, and I think they’ll fall a bit short in a thrilling Monday nighter. I think this will be the Vikings’ only home loss this season.
Nov. 15—At Green Bay: LOSS…Oh-oh, headed to Lambeau in a short week on a two-game losing streak doesn’t bode well for the Vikings. Micah Parsons should be rounding into top form by this Week 10 divisional matchup, and he’ll be a big challenge for Vikings tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.
Packers QB Jordan Love always seems to come on in the second half of the season. I see a close loss as the Vikings fall to 5-4 with a date against the 49ers up next, and Vikings fans are getting restless.
Nov. 22—vs. San Francisco in Mexico City: WIN…The Vikings’ international record is outstanding (5-1), and they are highly motivated to get back on the winning track against a solid 49ers team that is trying to keep pace with the Seahawks and Rams in the tough NFC West. This will be a fun Sunday night game.
The Vikings have beaten Brock Purdy in their two matchups, with Purdy throwing three picks in the two games, and he was sacked a career-high six times in the 2024 game in Minnesota. Murray has a 4-5 record against San Francisco, which is pretty good considering the mostly lousy Cardinals teams he played for.
I think Murray and the Vikings beat Purdy and the Niners to get back on the winning track with a favorable schedule ahead.
Nov. 29—Home vs. Atlanta: WIN…Will it be Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix against the Vikings defense? I don’t think it matters, as stopping elite RB Bijan Robinson will be the key. I like the Vikings’ chances to get it done on both sides of the ball against the Falcons before a loud U.S. Bank Stadium crowd that is fired up after the win over the 49ers.
Dec. 6—Home vs. Carolina: WIN…In the 2023 matchup, Panthers QB Bryce Young was sacked five times, and on a game-changing play, Young lost a strip sack by Harrison Smith, which D.J. Wonnum returned for a scoop-and-score.
The Vikings continue to feast on the weak NFC South by completing the division sweep and stretching their winning streak to three, putting them squarely in the race for the division title or a wild card berth at 8-4.
Dec. 10—At New England: LOSS…The Vikings have not fared well in recent years in road Thursday night games, and this is a difficult task against the defending AFC champion Patriots on what should be a cold and possibly snowy night in Foxboro.
I don’t see the Pats repeating last season’s success, and I think the Vikings may well have the better overall roster, but I see Drake Maye having a solid enough game, passing and running, to lead the Pats to victory with the big advantage of playing at home on Thursday night.
Dec. 20—Home vs. Detroit: WIN…In the Lions’ 23-10 Week 17 loss in Minnesota last season, Goff was sacked five times and threw two interceptions. In this critical matchup, the Vikings will gain the season split with a home victory over the Lions as the defense sacks Goff four times and forces him to turn it over three times.
Murray will have a big Sunday night game on the national stage as he hits Jefferson for two scores and Jauan Jennings for a TD. T.J. Hockenson also will have a big night against his old team as the Vikings improve to 9-5.
TBD Week 16 (likely Dec. 27)—Home vs. Washington: WIN…2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels had a rough second season with several injuries limiting him to seven games, the last of which was an awful road outing in Minnesota when he completed only 9 of 20 for 78 yards and one interception and was pulled with an elbow injury in the 31-0 Vikings romp.
Daniels struggled mightily against Flores’ D, and I expect the same as the Vikings earn their tenth win of the season.
Jan. 3—At New York Jets: WIN…The Jets are being talked up as a team on the rise after a strong draft with three first-round picks (edge David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper). I’ll have to see it to believe they’re finally headed in the right direction, especially with a suspect Geno Smith returning to quarterback the team that drafted him in 2013.
This could be a bad-weather game and a trap game with the Bears up next, but I think Kevin O’Connell will keep his team focused on the task at hand, and the Vikings will get the win in the Meadowlands.
TBD (likely Jan. 10)—Home vs. Chicago: WIN…The Vikings felt they should’ve won the Week 2 game in Chicago, and this time they force Caleb Williams into a couple of turnovers and sack him four times in a game with the NFC North title on the line.
But the Vikings will beat out the Lions for the division crown and not the Bears, who won’t make the playoffs. Murray finishes a strong regular season with the win, and the Vikings and their fans hope for better play from him in the playoffs than they got from Sam Darnold in 2024 against the Rams.
Final regular season tally: 12-5, NFC North champions. I’m an optimist by nature, but I see my Vikings season prediction as very possible considering the schedule that includes nine home games (with five at home in the last seven weeks) and crossover divisions as the weak NFC South and an AFC East with two highly suspect teams in the Dolphins and Jets.
The Vikings will head to the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 3 seed behind the Rams and Eagles. They will be the home team in the wild card round and get O’Connell’s first postseason win against the No. 6 seed (Lions or 49ers?) before falling to either the Rams or Eagles in a close divisional round defeat.
The Vikings will have the look of a Super Bowl contender in 2027 if their QB situation is much improved under Murray (or perhaps McCarthy, if he gets an opportunity to play if Murray gets hurt, as he has in the past, and McCarthy could take a big step forward). After the season, the Murray free-agent watch will begin, as his one-year deal includes a no-franchise-tag or transition-tag clause.
As for my Super Bowl pick, I’ve got the Rams over the Broncos, but I reserve the right to change my pick before the playoffs.
