Final Free Agency Predictions for the 2026 Vikings
Most fans would say it’s the second most exciting time of the offseason — behind April’s draft — as free agency gets underway next week. The Minnesota Vikings won’t have much money to spend compared to the last two offseasons, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be silent. It’s time to get some predictions on record.
Our last pre-free-agency forecast touches quarterback, tight end, and bargain defensive help.
Minnesota is led by interim general manager Rob Brzezinski, who will hold the title indefinitely and perhaps permanently.
VikingsTerritory’s Main Predictions for the Roster Dominoes
Our final forecast for Vikings free agency.
1. T.J. Hockenson Will Take a Pay Cut
Fans have wondered about Hockenson’s fate beyond 2025 from the moment it became apparent that his receiving production dipped. The Vikings used him as a blocking tight end last season because the offensive line couldn’t stay healthy, and when he did command passing targets, well, J.J. McCarthy didn’t really target him.
Minnesota won’t release Hockenson, nor will it trade him. It will rip up his current deal altogether and give Hockenson a new contract, reflecting an honest-to-goodness paycut.
He’ll be back as the TE1 in 2026.
2. Asante Samuel Jr. Is the Main CB Addition
Adding Asante Samuel Jr. alongside Byron Murphy Jr. and Isaiah Rodgers would give the Vikings the cornerback depth necessary to avoid feeling pressured to draft for the position this April.
Samuel Jr. almost signed with the Vikings last year, even meeting with the team before ultimately joining the Pittsburgh Steelers. While in Pittsburgh, he played under defensive backs coach Gerald Alexander, who recently replaced Daronte Jones in Minnesota.
This connection, combined with Mike Tomlin’s departure from Pittsburgh, could lead to Samuel Jr. signing a two-year deal with the Vikings for around $11 million.
Steelers-themed media seems to want Samuel Jr. back in 2026, a sign that he’s the real deal.
SteelersDepot‘s Matthew Marzi noted on Samuel Jr. this week, “On paper, it would sure be nice if it all worked out. If the Steelers pair Asante Samuel with Joey Porter, they could have a strong pair that can grow together. Samuel is still 26 years old even with five seasons under his belt, so he could easily have another half a decade in him.”
“He may not be the best cornerback to which they might have access this offseason, but factoring in price, is Asante Samuel the Steelers’ most ideal option at cornerback? He did play over 200 snaps for them last year, so it’s not like they didn’t get a look. Even with a new coaching staff, the tape is still the tape. And Mike Tomlin is a phone call away if they need a second opinion.”
3. Harrison Smith Returns for Year No. 15
Why hasn’t Smith filed the retirement papers? C.J. Ham already did it. So did Adam Thielen.
Probably knowing that an efficient quarterback is on the way — more on that momentarily — Smith will once again return to Minnesota. He has a hard time walking away when he knows he can produce at a commendable clip. The Vikings can still pursue a safety of the future — like Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman — but Smith will ride again. One last time, though we’ve written “one last time” every year since the start of 2023.
4. Kyler Murray, It is
Murray’s somewhat unexpected release has significantly altered the NFL quarterback landscape. Following Arizona’s decision to release him (shortly after the Cardinals ranked last in the NFLPA ownership survey), teams should flood his agent with interest.
The opportunity to acquire a quarterback of his caliber for a minimal investment is enticing; quarterbacks with Murray’s credentials — a No. 1 overall draft selection and career efficiency statistics surpassing those of Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield — rarely become free agents.
Minnesota emerges as a logical destination. Murray’s childhood allegiance to the Vikings, coupled with the team’s favorable environment — Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly system, talented receiving corps, and competitive defense — suggests a potentially appealing one-year agreement.
Given Murray’s recent injury history, the Vikings would likely retain McCarthy as a backup. If successful, the pairing of Murray and Minnesota could prove formidable, particularly if O’Connell tailors the offense to capitalize on Murray’s mobility and improvisational skills.
Murray’s a Viking — and he could be the new QB1 for the next half-decade.
5. Vikings Sign 3-4 Affordable New Defenders
The Vikings can’t offer Jonathan Allen or Javon Hargrave-style contracts during this free-agency period, but they can scour the wire for bargains.
In addition to the Samuel Jr. prediction, Minnesota will sign a safety like Andre Cisco, a linebacker like Jerome Baker, and perhaps an EDGE defender like A.J. Epenesa (in the event a Jonathan Greenard trade comes to fruition).
The Vikings have only three off-ball linebackers under contract right now: Blake Cashman, Jacob Roberts (The Snake?), and Josh Ross. If they re-sign Wilson, they still need a couple more ILBs after releasing rookie Kobe King last year. Expect some movement at inside linebacker. The depth behind Cashman of only Roberts and Ross is downright comical.
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