Kyler Murray Picked for Long Shot Award
No Minnesota Vikings player has won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson in 2012 — none have really come all that close since then — but according to NFL.com, there’s a chance that changes in 2026.
Bucky Brooks from that website named long-shot award winners last week, and the only MVP winner who emerged from his publication was Murray.
Murray’s MVP Buzz Turns a Cheap Vikings Bet into a Bigger Story
Brook: Murray Is the Main Long-Shot to Win MVP
Murray getting MVP consideration this early turned heads. Brooks explained, “The combination of Murray’s spectacular playmaking ability and Kevin O’Connell’s creative scheming could quickly remind the football world why this quarterback won the Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma and then went first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft.”
“Injuries have plagued the former Offensive Rookie of the Year in recent seasons, but Murray’s dual-threat skills should be enhanced by the Vikings’ playmakers and play designer. After watching KOC transform a struggling Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowler in 2024, I’m confident that the coaching wizard can help the ultra-talented Murray regain his magic in Minnesota.”
Darnold, too, posted MVP-style numbers in 2024 but crumbled when the lights were brightest.
Brooks concluded, “Given the 28-year-old’s prowess as a dual-threat weapon, the Vikings could re-emerge with a potent offense to complement Brian Flores’ swarming D. If Murray makes Minnesota a true contender in a loaded NFC North, the eighth-year pro could add another major piece of football hardware to his mantel.”
What Has to Happen?
How can Murray snatch the league MVP award? It won’t be easy:
— Post 3,500 Passing Yards or More
— Record 35+ Total Touchdowns
— Avoid a Flurry of Turnovers
— Keep the Vikings Near the Top of the NFC North from Cover to Cover
— Reach the Postseason
If the Vikings won the NFC North and Murray started 15-17 games, his case would be enhanced.
MVP voters do not consider playoff performance at all, so Murray and his MVP peers must craft wonderful regular seasons. In short, Murray must stay healthy, thrive individually, and lead the Vikings to the playoffs. That’s the blueprint.
Vikings Don’t Even Need Murray to Post MVP Numbers
The Vikings’ offense, featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson, is further bolstered by O’Connell’s adept playcalling, creating an ideal environment for any quarterback. Murray is stepping into a highly favorable situation, which is a sweet advantage.
Murray’s role is pretty clear: he needs to execute the offense efficiently, protect the football, make big plays, and move the sticks on 3rd Down. Minnesota doesn’t require a superhuman effort from Murray. Instead, they need him to revert to his pre-controversy Arizona form — a quarterback who ranks in the NFL’s Top 15.
The parallels to Baker Mayfield are evident, too. Both were top draft picks who were ultimately released by their drafting teams. Mayfield revitalized his career in Tampa Bay through resilient, efficient play and by consistently taking high-percentage throws. Murray can replicate this success, with the added dimension of superior mobility and a greater capacity to create game-changing plays.
If Murray performs to his potential, the partnership could extend beyond a single season. His talent suggests he could be the Vikings’ long-term solution at quarterback. While Arizona moved on, Minnesota has presented him with an excellent opportunity to re-establish his career.
A to Z Sports‘ Tyler Foness noted on Murray this week, “You can do the classroom work and study the playbook at home, but applying it on the field helps ingrain a certain level of comfort.”
“That’s why you often hear about quarterbacks taking a major step in year three of a system, especially a West Coast offense as O’Connell runs. At that point, it often becomes second nature. Murray needs every possible rep to reach that point. Remember, this is about winning a Super Bowl in 2026, not worrying about the future.”
Murray doesn’t need to play like an MVP for Minnesota to excel; the Vikings need competence at the position. They finished last year with a winning record despite poor quarterback performance.
The True Frontrunners
In reality, Murray has around a +5000 probability of winning MVP. Here’s the “real” list, according to sportsbooks:
- Josh Allen (Bills) — +600
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens) — +750
- Drake Maye (Patriots) — +850
- Joe Burrow (Bengals) — +900
- Matthew Stafford (Rams) — +900
- Justin Herbert (Chargers) — +1100
- Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) — +1300
- Dak Prescott (Cowboys) — +1400
- Caleb Williams (Bears) — +1500
- Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) — +1600
- Brock Purdy (49ers) — +1900
- Jayden Daniels (Commanders) — +2000
- Jordan Love (Packers) — +2200
- Sam Darnold (Seahawks) — +2700
Murray’s quarterback teammate, J.J. McCarthy, has MVP odds around +20000 for curious minds.
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