Justin Jefferson Forecasted for ‘Bust’ Season
Compared to his normal behavior on a football field, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had a quiet year in 2025, mainly because his quarterbacks did not flourish at all times. So, he is destined to rebound and regain his All-Pro form with Kyler Murray in town, right? Not according to CBS Sports.
Heath Cummings outlined fantasy “busts” on Monday, and Jefferson received an unfortunate nomination.
The Kyler Murray Factor Complicates the Fade
Cummings: Jefferson Will Be a Fantasy Bust
Finding seven busts, Cummings landed on Jefferson near the top of his list. He explained, “I am very hopeful that Kyler Murray wins the job and proves better than J.J. McCarthy.”
“But I am concerned about drafting Kyler Murray’s WR1 in Round 1. Murray was miserable last year, averaging 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and hasn’t posted a pass TD rate above 3.9% since 2021. His rushing, while good for the team, can be detrimental to the total number of targets available for pass catchers.”
Most fantasy brains are actually high on Jefferson, believe it or not. Murray is supposed to be an elixir.
Cummings added, “Jefferson’s TPRR over the past two seasons has been about 24% when both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are on the field.”
“That would have tied Emeka Egbuka for 23rd at WR last year. Jefferson is a good bet to bounce back, and a fine pick in the middle of Round 2, but he’ll be a disappointment if you draft him in Round 1.”
The TDs Really Need Help
For Jefferson to be considered a truly deadly fantasy asset — like prime Christian McCaffrey at RB — he’ll need more touchdowns, Plain and simple. He recorded 2 last year, which was criminally low, and in his career, Jefferson has logged double-digit scores in a season twice: 10 in 2021 and 10 in 2024. If you’ve ever wondered why Jefferson never quite feels like he’s on Randy Moss’s level, it’s the touchdowns — lack thereof compared to his yardage totals.
Thankfully, Jefferson topping 2 touchdowns from 2025 this season won’t be hard to do. In fact, it should be seamless with Murray slinging the rock. Theoretically, Jefferson could conquer his 2025 touchdown total in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers.
But overall, he needs the touchdowns to be a supremely deadly fantasy asset.
Never Forget: a Pass-Happy Offense
Jefferson also plays in a pass-happy offense — almost to a fault at times, as fans wish Kevin O’Connell would run the football more often to balance the playcalling. So long as Murray doesn’t play like an imbecile, the Vikings will naturally throw the football more than most teams because that’s what O’Connell, a former quarterback, does.
These are Jefferson’s targets by year since he turned pro in 2020:
- 2020 — 125
- 2021 — 167
- 2022 — 184
- 2023 — 100
- 2024 — 154
- 2025 — 141
He didn’t suffer from a lack of targets last season; his quarterbacks just didn’t efficiently feed him the ball.
Where to Draft Vikings Players in Fantasy
If you’re looking for a quick guide on where to draft Vikings players in August and September, we’ve got it. These are recommendations, assuming 10-Team SuperFlex rules:
Vikings Players,
Dynasty | Redraft
ADP by Round:
— Justin Jefferson
Redraft: Round 2
Dynasty: Round 2
— Kyler Murray
Redraft: Round 4
Dynasty: Round 7
— Jordan Addison
Redraft: Round 12
Dynasty: Round 9
— T.J. Hockenson
Redraft: Round 17
Dynasty: Round 15
— Jordan Mason
Redraft: Round 14
Dynasty: Round 16
— Aaron Jones
Redraft: Round 13
Dynasty: Round 17
— J.J. McCarthy
Redraft: Round 28
Dynasty: Round 18
— Demond Claiborne
Redraft: Round 25
Dynasty: Round 23
SI.com‘s Thomas Carelli on Murray’s fantasy outlook: “The Risk: Murray has struggled to be as efficient as he was in his days at Oklahoma. A player formerly drafted 1st overall in the NFL Draft has become nothing more than a mediocre quarterback. He could not feed Marvin Harrison Jr., so why should he feed Justin Jefferson?”
“The Reward: If anyone can get Murray right, it will be Kevin O’Connell. He had Kirk Cousins post his best career numbers in the early 2020s. He also helped breed Sam Darnold into the Super Bowl winner he became. The Vikings also add the best trio of wide receivers that Murray will have ever had: Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings. If all goes right, Murray could be a top-5 quarterback in fantasy football.”
Jefferson, meanwhile, is under contract with the Vikings through the end of 2028, though he could reasonably ask for a trade next summer if he sours on the club.
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