Every Mock Draft Is Starting to Say the Same Guy for Vikings
If you peruse the internet for mock drafts, searching for the Minnesota Vikings’ pick at No. 18, one name has dominated the discourse as of late. That guy is Dillon Thieneman of the Oregon Ducks, a safety who has completely and utterly seized the hearts of mock-drafters who decide Minnesota’s 1st-Round pick.
The Oregon safety keeps showing up at No. 18 for a reason.
In the last two weeks, virtually every credible mock draft says the same thing: Thienemen to Minnesota.
Thieneman Has Taken Over the Vikings Mock-Draft Cycle
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Mock Draft Mania: Thieneman to MIN
It’s as if all mock draftheads somehow colluded and decided Thieneman must be a Viking.
USA Today‘s Nate Davis selected Thieneman for Minnesota this week and wrote, “With Harrison Smith’s future in doubt, Thieneman would make sense as both a short- and long-term solution. One of the combine’s standouts, the Ducks All-American is a rangy player who can be weaponized all over the field.”
Over at NFL.com, Eric Edholm followed suit in his mock: “Defensive tackle is a glaring need for the Vikings, who also could stand to add a receiver, but safety looms as a big worry if Harrison Smith retires. Thieneman is smart, athletic and a strong tackler — a nice schematic fit for coordinator Brian Flores.”
How about The Athletic? Same. Alec Lewis on Thursday regarding Thienemen to the Vikings: “Will Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores want to use a first-rounder on a safety? Minnesota passed on Malaki Starks and Nick Emmanwori last year. The Vikings might have a bigger need this time around given what they saw from safety Theo Jackson last season, and considering Harrison Smith’s future might be more uncertain.”
“Thieneman has ball skills. His read-and-react ability would fit nicely in a system that often allows defenders to keep eyes on the quarterback. The Vikings could look for a defensive lineman at this spot, but it’s difficult to settle on one who is a no-brainer type of fit.”
ESPN’s Mel Kiper also rolled with Thieneman to the Twin Cities this week. It’s a Thieneman epidemic.
The Harrison Smith Replacement Plan
In Week 18 of the 2025 season — so, about two months ago — the Vikings and the team’s fans hosted a de facto retirement party for Smith, as Minnesota chipped off the Detroit Lions. Smith has played for 14 seasons, and most just assumed that a soon-to-be 37-year-old safety would retire.
Thereafter, nothing happened. Not a peep from Smith personally, who, by trade, is a man of few words.
Because Smith has not expressly retired, most expect him to return for one final hurrah, especially with Kyler Murray in the house as the quarterback, an electric passer with higher upside than J.J. McCarthy, last year’s QB1.
Still, no matter what, whether Smith returns or retires, Minnesota needs a safety for the long haul. If Smith comes back in 2026, well, that will probably be it. He can’t play forever; the franchise needs a Harrison Smith replacement plan. All signs from the mock draft community point to Thieneman.
Thieneman’s Skill Set
Thieneman’s awesome performance at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis really boosted his draft stock. That 4.35 forty, the 41-inch vertical, and those smooth backpedal drills? They propelled him into Round 1 talk after everyone had him pegged as a Round 2 guy for months.
At 6’0″ and 200 pounds, Thieneman’s got that sweet combo of size and range. He can handle single-high safety stuff but also mix it up in the box, giving defensive coordinators options with different looks.
Over 39 college games between Purdue and Oregon, he racked up 306 tackles, 8 picks, and 10 TFLs. His time in the Big Ten first got Vikings fans’ attention, and then his move to Oregon made him even more of a known specimen in 2025.
Thieneman just eats up ground and shows some serious instincts in coverage, especially for a young safety. You see some hesitation on tape now and then — totally normal for a player still developing — but those flashes of speed and how quickly he processes things suggest those inconsistencies will fade as he gets more experience.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein on Thieneman: “Savvy three-year starter with NFL size, speed and alignment versatility. Thieneman is an extension of his defensive coordinator, aligning and adjusting the secondary to motion and pre-snap shifts. He’s an instinctive, rangy safety who can roll down into big nickel or robber positioning.”
“He has a good feel for play design and route concepts in zone but has average change of direction to match breaks in man. He’s not a big thumper near the line, but he rushes into the action with a relentless pursuit that should allow him to keep stacking high scores in the tackle columns. Thieneman checks important boxes for teams looking to add versatile playmakers in the secondary.”
Zierlein also compared Thieneman to New York Giants safety Jevon Holland.
34 Days Until a Verdict
The NFL Draft is now less than five weeks away, meaning a verdict isn’t far off. Minnesota has nine picks in its bucket this cycle, up from five when the process marched to the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Vikings have team needs at safety — perhaps Thieneman — cornerback, center, defensive tackle, and arguably running back.
Unless Notre Dame tailback Jeremiyah Love oddly slides down the draftboard or the Vikings’ decision-makers become intoxicated over tight end Kenyon Sadiq from Oregon, most expect interim general manager Rob Brzezinski to select a defensive player in Round 1.
The world says Thieneman.
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