Who Wins Steelers-Vikings?
International games present numerous logistical challenges for the staff and physical challenges for the players, as they contend with an adjusted schedule and the effects of jet lag. I speak from experience as I was the team travel coordinator for the first two Vikings’ overseas games, which were both preseason games—in London (1983) and Gothenburg, Sweden (1988).
Former Vikings general manager Jeff Diamond sizes up the Vikings’ Week 4 matchup in Ireland against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
We played four preseason games abroad and won all of them during my tenure in the Vikings’ front office. More importantly than those preseason contests, the Vikings have played four regular season games in London and are 4-0, including wins in 2013 over the Steelers and 2017 against the Browns, the two teams the Vikings face in this unprecedented back-back pair of international games (with the Browns on tap in London in Week 5).
Vikings Take on the Steelers in London: Analysis from Jeff Diamond
The Vikings-Steelers matchup brings lots of excitement and intrigue as two teams that are co-leaders in their respective divisions meet in the first-ever game in Dublin, Ireland. The Vikings will renew acquaintances with old rival Aaron Rodgers on Sunday after beating him in London last year when he quarterbacked the Jets.
For the Vikings, Carson Wentz gets his second start after a fine debut (two TD passes, no turnovers, 129.8 passer rating) in the romp over the Bengals, which was also fueled by five takeaways from the defense, including two defensive TDs from corner Isaiah Rodgers, who is the reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Week. Wentz will benefit from the return of center Ryan Kelly on the O-line and excellent No. 2 wide receiver Jordan Addison to pair with Justin Jefferson (and Jalen Nailor in three wides).
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Steelers to reach 3-1.
1. Win the turnover battle: This is always a key, but it seems even more so this week with the top two teams in takeaways from 2024 matching up. The Vikings and Steelers tied for the league lead with 33 takeaways last season, which was a major reason both teams became playoff contenders.
Both teams forced five turnovers last Sunday—the Vikings against the Bengals and the Steelers in their 21-14 win at New England. The Steelers have eight takeaways and the Vikings have seven through three games, ranking just behind Jacksonville’s nine.
Both defenses are great at punching the ball out, so offensive players beware.
2. Run the ball to balance the offense for Wentz: the Steelers are uncharacteristically shaky against the run this season, with their No. 27 ranking after finishing No. 6 last season. Jordan Mason comes off with 116 yards rushing against Cincinnati, which helped set up the play-action passing game for Wentz. Zavier Scott and Cam Akers also looked good with their 49 rushing yards combined as they backed up Mason with Aaron Jones on I.R.
The Steelers allowed Kenneth Walker to run for 105 yards with an 8.1-yard average in Seattle’s 31-17 victory in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. New England gained 119 yards on the ground last week, but that included 45 from QB Drake Maye.
Having star left tackle Christian Darrisaw back made a huge difference last week in run blocking and pass protection for the Purple. Kelly returns this week from his concussion, and he is needed against the Steelers’ front led by Cameron Heyward in run D.
The Vikings will miss first-rounder Donovan Jackson (wrist surgery, expected back in Week 7) at left guard after an excellent performance by him last week. Blake Brandel replaces Jackson and must play well.
3. Pass protect and beware of T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig, and several ball hawkers in the secondary: Watt is a seven-time Pro Bowler with two sacks this season after having 11.5 last season and 19 in 2023 when he led the NFL.
He also led the league in forced fumbles last season with six. He usually rushes from the left side, so Brian O’Neill must play well at RT and get some help, if needed, from TE Josh Oliver. Outside backer Herbig must also be controlled, as he has seven forced fumbles over his three seasons, including one last week.
The Steelers have three quality corners — Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and Joey Porter Jr. — so Wentz will likely utilize a lot of short, quick passes and must be careful when throwing downfield. But he has to take some longer shots to Jefferson, Addison, and Nailor, along with intermediate throws to T.J. Hockenson against the No. 26 pass defense that Sam Darnold had 295 passing yards and two TDs against in Week 2, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba catching eight passes for 1-3 yards, and Cooper Kupp had seven receptions for 90 yards.
4. So continue to get Jefferson and Hockenson more involved than they were in the first two games and get the ball to the returning Addison: Wentz did a better job than McCarthy in getting the ball to Hockenson, especially (five catches, 49 yards, one TD vs. the Bengals).
5. Stop the run and pressure Rodgers into turnovers: the Steelers are having trouble running the ball (31st ranked), and the Vikings were much better against the Bengals than in the Falcons loss. The Vikings had three interceptions off Rodgers in the 23-17 win in London over the Jets last year, including the game-sealer by Stephon Gilmore with 49 seconds left.
The Vikings’ pass rushers must pressure Rodgers into turnovers, which could happen after he also threw two interceptions in the Week 2 loss to the Seahawks and one pick last Sunday in Foxboro. The Vikings hope Pro Bowler Andrew Van Ginkel can play a lot more than the eight snaps he had last week (but he still managed to get two sacks in that limited duty).
6. Cover DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, and two fine tight ends–Jonnu Smith and Pat Feiermuth: if Rodgers has time to throw, the Vikings secondary must cover well against a quality group of targets for Rodgers. The return of Harrison Smith definitely solidified the secondary.
7. Special teams play well: the coverage units and kickoff return blocking have been up and down this season, as has been the returning of Myles Price. Some big plays in the kicking game will help the cause.
Both teams have fine kickers—Will Reichard (6 for 6 on field goals) and Chris Boswell (5 for 5 on field goals), and both are perfect on PATs. They’ve each made several 50+ field goals this season, so they have long range and are confident.
8. Limit the penalties: 13 for 105 yards vs. Cincy, including a ridiculous five false starts at home. This has been a point of emphasis by O’Connell this week. Concentrate, fellas!
9. Take advantage of the scheduling break in not having to play in Pittsburgh: in an odd twist, the Steelers’ two wins have been on the road at the Jets and New England, while they lost at home in Week 2 to Seattle. Still, it’s a huge bonus to play these two neutral-site games instead of at Pittsburgh and Cleveland as originally scheduled.
Prediction
The Steelers have plenty of talented players, but are not playing consistently on either side of the ball. I pick the Vikings to intercept Rodgers twice and sack him three times, while Mason has another big game running the ball. Wentz and his great skill group of receivers make enough plays in the passing game.
The Vikings will continue to be undefeated in international games with a 24-17 win, improving to 3-1. They will then head to London to battle the tough Cleveland defense (No. 1 in the league) and take advantage of a shaky Browns offense.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 3
1. The games of most interest to the Vikings involve their fellow NFC North leaders. Detroit comes off an impressive win at Baltimore and should handle the Browns in Motown as long as Jared Goff doesn’t turn it over too many times against Cleveland’s top-ranked defense.
The Packers are in Dallas on Sunday night, where Micah Parsons will try to put on a show against Jerry Jones’ Cowboys following the big trade. I think that will happen. The Packers are the much better team as long as Jordan Love plays better than he did in the upset loss at Cleveland (and the Dallas D without Parsons is a far cry from the Browns’ D).
2. Baltimore is at Kansas City in a battle of 1-2 teams who were expected to be Super Bowl contenders. The Ravens’ defense is out of whack, and I think Patrick Mahomes will do enough to get the victory.
3. Philly is at Tampa Bay in a matchup of 3-0 teams. I pick the Eagles to win. And I think Daniel Jones and the Colts take their first loss of the season at the Rams, who pushed the Eagles last week in the game decided on the final play by a blocked field goal return for a TD by Philly’s Jordan Davis.
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