Can Vikings Win for Third Straight Year in Lambeau on Sunday?
It’s crunch time for the 4-6 Vikings as they come off two home losses and head to Lambeau Field to face the 6-3-1 Packers. Perhaps it’s a good time for a border battle road trip as the Vikings are 3-2 on the road this season compared to 1-4 at home, and the Packers have dropped their last two home games (against the Panthers and Eagles).
The Vikings aim for a third straight win at Lambeau Field on Sunday, pushing to keep playoff hopes alive in a road matchup they’ve recently owned.
The Vikings have beaten the Packers in Green Bay the past two years—in a 31-29 Week 4 thriller last season, when the Vikings led 28-0 in the second quarter, and two years ago, when Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles.
Vikings Can Make It Three Straight in Wisconsin
The Vikings’ injuries, poor turnover ratio, and QB inconsistency from both J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz have put them in a tough predicament. They likely need to win six of their last seven games to reach 10-7, which is usually good enough to earn at least a wild-card spot, but in a loaded NFC, that might not get them into the playoffs this season.
So it behooves the Vikings to find a way to win for the third straight year in the land of the Cheeseheads before another difficult road game at 7-3 Seattle next week, where they’ll renew acquaintances with their 2024 starting QB—Sam Darnold.
A winning formula this week should include more consistent play from McCarthy, at least staying even in the turnover battle, and eliminating killer mistakes, such as the last-minute 56-yard kickoff return by Devin Duvernay (with three players vacating their lanes) that doomed the Vikings against the Bears last week.
Here are my keys to a much-needed Vikings win over the rival Packers:
1. McCarthy play a full game like he did on the final drive against the Bears: it was mind-boggling to see how inaccurate he was for 3 ½ quarters (10 of 26 for 74 yards with two bad interceptions) and then to see him complete six of eight passes for 76 yards (including the go-ahead TD to Jordan Addison) on the final drive.
Kevin O’Connell needs to get his young QB to settle down early in games, get his mechanics right, and not throw every pass 100 miles per hour. McCarthy also should run more after having no rushing attempts last week, since he has the ability to pick up first downs and TDs on the ground.
2. Catch the ball! For a talented receiving corps to have six drops in the Bears game was inexcusable. Drops are drive killers and make it that much more difficult for a struggling quarterback. Justin Jefferson is too good and makes too much money to have drops in each of the last two games (including a potential TD against the Ravens). Addison’s two drops were costly last week. T.J. Hockenson is one of the highest-paid tight ends in the league and must hold onto the ball.
3. Turn around the turnover problem: the Vikings need to channel their 2024 version that led the league in takeaways (33) and interceptions (24) and ranked third in turnover ratio (plus 12). Through 10 games, their poor numbers are nine takeaways (sixth-fewest), three interceptions (second-fewest), 18 giveaways (second-most), and a minus-9 ratio (second-worst).
The Packers are plus 1 this season. In their sweep of Green Bay last season, the Vikings were plus one in the first game (four takeaways against three giveaways) and even in the second game as both teams had one takeaway.
McCarthy must not make bad throws as he did on the two picks last week. The backs and Myles Price on returns must hang onto the ball. And the defense must recover fumbles that are rolling around and pick off a few passes, which haven’t happened enough this season.
4. Stop the big mistakes: no false starts (better last week with only one after eight against the Ravens), limit the other penalties, such as holding on big Price returns, and players on kick coverage units do your job by staying in your lanes with solid tackling.
5. Run the ball more: The Vikings are expected to have their starting offensive line together for the first time this season, with center Ryan Kelly recovered from his two concussions that have cost him seven games. The Vikings rank 25th in rushing and go against Green Bay’s seventh-ranked run defense.
Aaron Jones rushed for 93 yards in Week 4 against the Packers last season but only 47 yards in the rematch. The Vikings averaged 5.2 yards per carry last Sunday against the Bears. A strong running game—including key scrambles by McCarthy, a solid game from Jones, and power running from Jordan Mason—would be a huge help to McCarthy and the offensive production.
6. McCarthy must be protected: Micah Parsons (eight sacks) and Rashan Gary (7.5 sacks), along with the rest of the Packers’ pass rushers, present a big challenge for the Vikings’ offensive line, tight ends (who need to chip on Parsons), and C.J. Ham, Jones, and Mason in picking up blitzes. If McCarthy has time to throw and is more accurate than in recent games, he should be able to make some big plays with his talented wide receivers against suspect Green Bay corners Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine.
Jefferson, Addison, and Jalen Nailor lit up the Packers’ secondary in the Week 17 win last season with a combined 19 catches for 242 yards and two TDs. Hockenson added five catches for 68 yards as Sam Darnold threw for 377 yards and three TDs.
It has to start with a solid rushing attack and early quick passes to build McCarthy’s confidence, and then he can have success downfield if his protection holds up and his accuracy is much better than last week and an improvement over his season rate of 52.9% (last in the league).
7. Stop the run: Josh Jacobs hurt his knee last week, but he’s back at practice (limited). His 648 rushing yards rank 15th league-wide, and his 11 rushing TDs rank second, but his 3.8-yard average is a drop from 4.4 last season. Part of the problem is the Packers’ offensive line—like the Vikings’ O-line—has dealt with a lot of injuries this season, including losing their best lineman—Pro Bowl center/guard Elgton Jenkins—to a leg fracture two weeks ago, and he’s out for the year.
The Vikings’ 19th-ranked run D has been up-and-down this season and is coming off a 140-yard game by the Bears. Emanuel Wilson is the No. 2 back who should see plenty of action this week, regardless of Jacobs’ status.
8. Pressure Jordan Love: after he torched the Vikings in the attempted comeback in Week 4 last year with 271 yards and three TDs in the second half (but he threw three picks that game), Love was held to 185 passing yards and one TD in the rematch when the Vikings sacked him three times (1.5 by LB Blake Cashman on blitzes).
DC Brian Flores has to be careful with calling too many blitzes, as Love, who has a 119 passer rating with nine TDs and only one interception this season, is vulnerable to the blitz. His season passer rating of 103.2 ranks eighth (15 TDs, 3 interceptions, 67.7% completions).
Jonathan Greenard missed the Bears game with a shoulder injury, but he’s back at practice (limited) and may be able to play Sunday, which would be a major help for the pass rush. Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel come off excellent games and should be able to pressure Love, who probably will throw a lot of screens and quick passes.
9. Contain a fine receiving corps: the Packers lost their top receiver—tight end Tucker Kraft—to a torn ACL three weeks ago. Jayden Reed remains out, and the Packers will look for production from wide receivers Christian Watson (two TD receptions last week), Romeo Doubs (39 catches, 499 yards, 4 TDs), and first-round rookie Matthew Golden.
The Vikings need the pass rush to pressure Love, who should have success against the Vikings’ secondary if he has time to throw.
10. Win the special teams battle: start with staying in lanes when covering kicks and a few good Myles Price returns. The Vikings should have an advantage in the kicking game with Will Reichard (only two missed kicks this season) over the Packers’ Brandon McManus (six missed field goals this season) if he returns from a quad injury or Lucas Havrisik if he’s in this week (he has two missed extra points in the three games he’s stepped in for McManus).
Prediction
It’s hard to trust the Vikings to play relatively mistake-free, considering what we’ve seen the last two weeks after the big win in Detroit that we thought was a season-changer.
I see a close game coming down to Love making some big plays in the fourth quarter and Parsons putting the heat on McCarthy who will play better but still throw a critical interception (he has at least one interception in all five starts and he’s thrown two picks in the home losses to Atlanta, Baltimore and Chicago with one in his road wins at Chicago and Detroit).
My Vikings picks have been wrong the last three weeks, and I hope I’m wrong again, picking the Packers to win 27-24.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 12
1. In the NFC North on Sunday, the 6-4 Lions host the lowly Giants with rookie QB Jaxson Dart expected back from concussion protocol after missing last week’s loss to the Packers. Dart’s return and the Giants’ potentially strong pass rush (led by Brian Burns, who ranks second in the league with 13 sacks) could make it a close game, but the Lions will win and move to 7-4.
The NFC North-leading Bears (7-3) are home against the Steelers in a battle of surprising division leaders who will likely fall short in the end, with Green Bay and Detroit in striking range of Chicago and Baltimore, only one game back of Pittsburgh (the two teams will meet in Weeks 14 and 18). I see the Bears winning another close game on Sunday, which they need to do with road games at Philadelphia and Green Bay the following two weeks.
2. Indianapolis at Kansas City was not expected to be a big game before the season, but it is with the 5-5 Chiefs in playoff danger and the 8-2 Colts trying to get closer to the AFC South title and the AFC top seed. I look for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to have big games as Chris Jones and the Chiefs defense force a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers (which he’s been doing lately) and contain Jonathan Taylor (1,139 yards).
The Eagles (8-2) will try to get their offense untracked against Dallas (4-5-1), but their defense, which has been playing great, will dominate after allowing only seven points to the Packers and nine to the Lions in the last two weeks.
Tampa Bay (6-4) is at the Rams (8-2) in another matchup of division leaders. I think the Rams are the best team in the league at this juncture, with Matthew Stafford playing at an MVP-level, and L.A. will beat the Bucs.
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