Why the Vikings Should Feel Confident against the Giants
As much as Vikings fans would love to see another big game by J.J. McCarthy where he finally connects well with Justin Jefferson, coach Kevin O’Connell is more likely to favor the running game as the ticket to a third straight win in this too-late surge.
Certainly, a balanced offensive attack is needed on Sunday, but the Giants enter the game with the 31st-ranked run defense that was just hit with a 145-yard rushing day by Washington in their 29-21 victory last Sunday at the Meadowlands.
Minnesota doesn’t need style points here — it needs a clean, controlled performance that matches a playoff-caliber team facing a limited opponent.
And speaking of MetLife Stadium, it’s usually one of the windiest venues in the NFL, which makes passing more difficult, especially in December. I remember many visits to this stadium during my Vikings front-office career, when the wind chill felt worse than what I left behind in Minnesota.
Eight Matchup Edges That Tilt Toward Minnesota
It’s not the marquis game on the NFL calendar in Week 16 with both teams out of the playoff race (which happened many weeks ago for the 2-12 G-Men, who have lost eight straight games, and the 6-8 Vikings were eliminated last week but are playing hard as the regular season winds down).
But it should be a competitive game as the Giants have been a tough out most of the season.
They beat the 10-4 Chargers in rookie first-round QB Jaxson Dart’s first start in Week 4 and produced a 17-point upset win over the Eagles in Week 6 when rookie running back Cam Skattebo (since lost for the season with an ankle injury) and Dart combined for 156 rushing yards and four TDs on the ground.
The 12-2 Broncos beat the Giants by one point in Week 7. During a three-game stretch in Weeks 10-12 against the NFC North, there were a four-point loss in Chicago, a seven-point home loss to Green Bay, and a seven-point overtime defeat in Detroit.
McCarthy is 4-4 as a first-year starter and will be trying to get over .500 this week. It’s a battle of rising young QBs and teams with enough talent to make a leap next year as their young QBs gain experience and the teams enjoy better health.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Giants:
1. Run the ball well: The Vikings have been utilizing a lot of extra tight ends and C.J. Ham for extra push in the run game. Missing Christian Darrisaw throughout and Brian O’Neill late didn’t help as the Vikings were held to 77 yards and a 2.8-yard average last week by the Cowboys’ strong front.
The Giants have talented players up front but their poor ranking says the run D is not effective. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason need to have good games running behind the run-heavy alignment to set up McCarthy’s play-action passing.
2. Pass protect for McCarthy against some formidable pass rushers: Brian Burns has 13 sacks to rank second in the league. Abdul Carter, this year’s third overall pick, has sacks in the last two games after a slow start (only ½ sack in the first 12 games). Kayvon Thibodeaux has been out for the last four games (shoulder).
Dexter Lawrence is a three-time Pro Bowl nose tackle who dominated the Vikings center, Garrett Bradbury, in the 2022 playoff loss. He’ll be a big challenge for center Ryan Kelly, who will need some help from guards Will Fries and Donovan Jackson (all three played well in last week’s win in Dallas).
Christian Darrisaw (knee) could miss again, so Justin Skule needs to have another good game and get help from the tight ends and C.J. Ham when he faces Burns. Brian O’Neill is also dealing with an injury (heel), so if he’s absent or leaves the game early, as occurred in the second half last week, Blake Brandel must step in and play well.
3. Continue working the tight ends but get the ball to Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor against some suspect corners without too many deep throws that could be affected by the wind: Tight ends are a young QB’s best friend with the shorter throws and bigger targets.
After struggling to find T.J. Hockenson in his early starts, McCarthy has connected much better the last couple of games with the two-time Pro Bowler. Hockenson was the team’s leading receiver in Dallas (four catches for 66 yards). TE Josh Oliver caught two TD passes, and Hockenson had one TD grab vs. Washington.
But McCarthy needs to make some explosive plays with his wide receivers as he did with Nailor and Addison in Dallas. After only six catches for 37 yards over the last three games, it’s time for a 100-yard game for Jefferson while making some big plays with Addison and Nailor, too. The Giants rank 23rd against the pass, so there will be opportunities for big plays in the passing game as long as McCarthy has time to throw and doesn’t hold the ball.
4. Stop the run—Tyrone Tracy has 504 rushing yards as the replacement for Cam Skattebo. The Vikings’ defense needs to contain the run and get after Dart.
5. Pressure Dart and spy him to prevent scrambles: Dart has played well in his rookie season (13 TD passes, only four interceptions, 62.5% completions, and a solid 92.7 passer rating (15th ranked).
He also has 400 rushing yards with seven TDs on the ground, but is probably not inclined to run as much after suffering a concussion in early November against the Bears that kept him out of the next two games. He played the last two weeks in losses to New England and Washington. Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson need to spy him as a potential scrambler.
DC Brian Flores is sure to send plenty of blitzes at Dart, which he always does with rookie QBs. Cashman, Wilson, Harrison Smith, and Jay Ward (replacing Josh Metellus, who is on IR) must pressure and rattle Dart. And Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner need to apply consistent pressure with Jonathan Greenard on IR due to his shoulder surgery.
The Vikings’ corners and safeties must do a good job covering quality WRs Wandale Robinson and Darius Slayton, along with a productive TE in Theo Johnson.
6. Win the turnover battle: the Vikings are minus 13, and the Giants are minus 6, so it hasn’t been a good year for either team in this critical area.
It’s been a big improvement the last two weeks for McCarthy with five TD passes and only one interception. That’s helped him produce an average passer rating of 118.6 (along with a much better 66% completion rate).
7. Will Reichard outkick Younghoe Koo, who replaced injured Graham Gano and missed two 50+ field goals last week. Reichard has had an outstanding season, with only 2 misses, and he made the clutch 53-yarder to seal the win last week.
8. Limit the penalties: only three in each game, the last two weeks were a factor in the victories, and better disciplined play must continue on the road.
Prediction
The Vikings have played better than the Giants the past two weeks. Interim head coach Mike Kafka is 0-4 since replacing Brian Daboll. I see a close first half with the Vikings pulling away for a 27-20 win as the run game leads the way and McCarthy makes enough plays in the passing game. The defense will again bend but not break.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 16
1. In the NFC North, 10-4 Chicago will try to separate from 9-4-1 Green Bay in a Saturday night battle at chilly Soldier Field. The loss of Micah Parsons (ACL tear) is a huge blow to the Packers’ D, and the Packers are dealing with other big injuries, such as WR Christian Watson’s shoulder.
This game could go either way, but I like the Bears’ running game and No. 1 takeaway defense making the difference with Jordan Love throwing two picks as he did in the loss at Denver last week.
8-6 Detroit must beat the AFC North-leading Steelers on Sunday to stay in the playoff hunt, and I think the Lions will win at home.
2. It’s sad to see major late-season injuries to star players that could delay the start of their next seasons, which is the case with Parsons and Patrick Mahomes, who also suffered an ACL tear last week as the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention (by the Chargers) for their first postseason absence in 11 years.
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