Vikings Seek to Change Recent Patterns at Chargers
There are two recent patterns in play for the Vikings in their important Thursday night game in Los Angeles against the Chargers. One they’d like to see continue and one they seek to change.
Starting with the opening victory at Chicago, this season has been a yo-yo of wins and losses in all six games. If that roller coaster continues this week, the Vikings will follow their disappointing loss to the Eagles with a win in L.A. to improve their record to 4-3 and stay within striking distance of the rest of the NFC North where the Packers, Lions and Bears all have winning records (and the Vikings will face all three teams in the next four weeks).
Minnesota Vikings aim to end frustrating short-week, West Coast losing trend as they face the Los Angeles Chargers in a pivotal Thursday night matchup.
The pattern they’d like to change is losing a short-week, Thursday night primetime game in L.A. in Week 8 after winning in London, having a bye week, and suffering a tight home loss to a top NFC team in Week 7.
That was the case last season when the Vikings started 5-0, including a Week 5 win in London over the Jets, had their bye week, then suffered their first loss to Detroit in a close game (31-29) and followed it up with the 30-20 loss to the Rams in L.A. That game ended with the non-call of a facemask on Sam Darnold as he was sacked in the end zone for a safety, ending the Vikings’ final drive.
The Vikings need to lobby the NFL Office to try to avoid having a West Coast road game on Thursday night next season. It’s a big enough disadvantage for the road team on Thursday night—as the Lions will experience when they come to Minnesota to face the Vikings in a Thursday/Christmas night game in Week 17. However, traveling from Detroit to Minneapolis is definitely easier than a trip to the West Coast.
The Chargers enter this game on a two-game losing streak, having lost three of their last four games (including two home games against Washington and Indianapolis) since starting the season 3-0. Like the Vikings, the Chargers have faced significant injury problems early in the season.
This includes losing their top two running backs—Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton (Harris for the season and Hampton is on short-term I.R.), and their Pro Bowl offensive tackle, Rashawn Slater, to a season-ending patellar tendon injury in training camp. Their other starting tackle—Minnesota-native Joe Alt—has missed the last three games with an ankle injury but is expected to return this week.
As a result of the O-line issues, Justin Herbert has been sacked a lot (21 times, sixth-most) and has been forced to run more than usual.
The Vikings certainly have had their own O-line issues due to injuries, and their QBs have been sacked 23 times (fourth-most).
Carson Wentz will start his fifth game (2-2 so far) after an erratic performance against the Eagles. Kevin O’Connell said J.J. McCarthy is “not there yet” but getting closer and should return on November 2 at Detroit unless he has a setback or Wentz lights it up in L.A. (which still may not matter as O’Connell appears inclined to get McCarthy back in there asap which I would endorse as Wentz is too inconsistent to lead the team to the playoffs and McCarthy needs to play to gain experience and perhaps he’ll come on as the season progresses and lead a late-season drive to the playoffs).
Here Are My Keys to a Vikings Win Over the Chargers to Reach 4-3:
1. After losing the turnover battle 2-0 in the last three games, win it: the Vikings are minus 4 in turnover ratio after finishing plus 12 last year (third-best in the league). The D has only seven takeaways after having 33 in 2024, which led the league. They have just two interceptions after leading the league with 24 last season. The Chargers are minus 3 in the ratio, and Herbert threw two picks (as did Wentz) last week in a 38-24 loss to the Colts.
2. Run the ball: The Chargers rank 19th in run D and have allowed an average of 150 yards on the ground over the last four games as they’ve gone 1-3 over that stretch. Aaron Jones could return, which would help the run game and the passing game as he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
The Vikings should run Jordan Mason and either Jones or Zavier Scott to the left side behind Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, and Josh Oliver.
3. Protect Wentz and Wentz throws quick and with accuracy: we’ve seen him throw it up for grabs under pressure, so the best strategy is the short and intermediate passing game to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, T.J. Hockenson, and either Jones or Scott out of the backfield.
The O-line has to keep long-time Vikings nemesis Khalil Mack from pressuring and sacking Wentz. The Colts did a good job last week, allowing only one sack of Daniel Jones as he threw for 288 yards and two TDs with no turnovers.
Jefferson could have a big game as he did two years ago against the Chargers (in a 28-24 loss). He caught seven passes from Kirk Cousins for 149 yards and one TD in the game that ended with an interception that deflected off Hockenson at the goal line.
The Vikings must keep long-time nemesis Khalil Mack (from his Bears’ years) from pressuring and sacking Wentz.
And Wentz must not make ill-advised throws, as he did against Philly, that resulted in the two interceptions, including the Pick-6. Four-time Pro Bowler Derwin James is a playmaker in the Chargers’ secondary, as is second-year corner Tarheeb Still, who had four interceptions last season and five passes defensed this season.
4. Be much better in the red zone: one of six won’t cut it. Run the ball against a suspect run D when it’s the best move (such as 2nd-and-1 from the 6 against the Eagles), eliminate the penalties, throw accurate passes, and make plays when presented (including Jefferson, who should have caught the fade that was broken up by the Eagles’ Cooper DeJean).
5. Stop the run and get after Herbert, but beware of his scrambling: Herbert was his team’s leading rusher in recent games against the Commanders (60 yards) and Colts (31yards). Kimani Vidal ran for 124 yards in the Week 6 win at Miami, but he was held to 20 yards by the Colts.
The Vikings did a great job in run defense against Saquon Barkley (44 yards) and the Eagles, but it came at the expense of a huge passing day, which must be guarded against in L.A.
If the Vikings can pressure and sack Herbert at a high rate, it will go a long way towards success in this game. But they will again be without Pro Bowl edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel (he’s missed the last three games with his neck injury).
That puts more pressure on Jonathan Greenard (only one sack thus far after 12 last season) and Dallas Turner, who is improving but still needs to be more impactful on the pass rush and more consistent in containing QBs who scramble, as was the case with Jalen Hurts and Herbert, who is also mobile. Timely blitzes are great if they work, but Herbert surely will get the ball out quickly with lots of wide receiver and tight end screens to be expected.
6. Cover much better: after being torched by DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, the Vikings face another strong group of receivers—Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and rookie TE Oronde Gadsden (seven catches for 164 yards and one TD last week vs. the Colts). Allen had a team record 18 receptions (for 215 yards) against the Vikings two years ago when Flores blitzed Herbert on 80% of the pass plays. Allen also threw a TD pass in that game, so the defense has to watch for a repeat of that trick play.
7. Limit the penalties: only three penalties for 30 yards last week (with the hold on Brandel a bad call) was a big improvement for the NFL’s most penalized team before last week.
8. Big plays and solid coverage on special teams: a big Myles Price return would be helpful. Both teams have excellent kickers — Will Reichard was 5 for 5 against the Eagles, including a 59-yarder, and he’s missed only one kick, which probably hit a camera wire in London. The Chargers’ Cameron Dicker is perfect this season.
Prediction
I think the Vikings need a split in these next two road games at the Chargers and Lions. It’s hard to expect a win in Detroit after the Lions have swept the Vikings the past two seasons. I would like the Vikings’ chances better if Van Ginkel were playing this week, as it’s essential they put the heat on Herbert, who will likely get rid of the ball quickly to beat the blitz, as he did against Flores and the Vikings D two years ago.
The Thursday road trip to L.A. is a significant disadvantage and a major reason I think the Chargers will win a close game. There should be a lot of big plays from both teams in the passing game, even as both teams try to establish the run. Ultimately, Herbert gives the Chargers a significant edge over Wentz, so I pick the Chargers to win 27-24.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 8
1. In the NFC North, Detroit has a bye before hosting the Vikings. The Packers have a big game in Pittsburgh on Sunday night against their former QB, Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers. Micah Parsons comes off a three-sack game in the win at Arizona, and he’ll be a force in this game. The Steelers defense will have a hard time containing the Packers offense, so I’m picking Green Bay.
The Bears seek their fifth straight win at Baltimore against the struggling Ravens (who expect to have Lamar Jackson back after missing the last two games (hamstring). I like Jackson to make a big difference in a Baltimore victory.
2. In other big games, I pick the Eagles to avenge their 34-17 loss to the Giants on October 9 with a win at home. I think 5-2 Denver will slow down Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense in a home win. And the Chiefs, who are rolling again with four wins in their last five games to get back in the AFC West race, will handle the Jayden Daniels-less (hamstring) Commanders in Kansas City on Monday night.
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