Vikings in “Must Win” Territory with Hot Bears on Tap
Before the last two games against the Lions and Ravens, I said the Vikings (3-4 at the time) needed to split those two games at least to avoid falling to 3-6. I predicted they’d lose at Detroit and beat the then-struggling Ravens.
The Vikings enter a must-win matchup against a surging Bears squad, raising the stakes for a team running out of margin in the NFC race.
We now know the opposite occurred with the Vikings pulling off the upset in Motown and unraveling in a penalty and turnover-filled loss to Baltimore. The Vikings are 4-5, and with games at Green Bay and Seattle coming up after this Sunday’s matchup with the Bears, it’s apparent that the Purple have a virtual “must win” home game on Sunday to stay in the NFC North and wildcard playoff race.
Chicago comes to town with six wins in their last seven games, but it’s a less impressive run considering none of those victories came against a team with a winning record. Their defense has been gashed the past two weeks, and the offense is moving the ball but relying on late heroics from QB Caleb Williams to pull out wins.
It’s Time for the Vikings to Realize That Week 11 Is Do or Die
It’s a rematch of the season opener in Chicago that the Vikings won 27-24 with three fourth-quarter TDs (two on J.J. McCarthy passes to Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones and the last score on a 14-yard run by McCarthy with 2:53 left) as the Vikings rallied from a 17-6 deficit.
McCarthy was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after that victory. Since then, it’s been an up-and-down season for him, including five games missed with an ankle injury, and now he’s recovering from a bruised right hand after hitting it on a helmet last Sunday (but he’s expected to be ok by Sunday).
Here are my keys to a Vikings win to sweep the Bears and get back to .500:
1. Stop the false starts and killer penalties: 13 penalties, including eight false starts, were disastrous last Sunday. Kevin O’Connell and McCarthy must figure out his cadence, and the rest of the offense must be more disciplined so this doesn’t recur the rest of the season.
Special teams penalties, such as Dwight McGlothern’s hold on the last Ravens punt and Tavierre Thomas’ hold on Myles Price’s kickoff return TD in Detroit, must be avoided. And Dallas Turner has not to sack Williams with his full body weight, as he did to Lamar Jackson for a roughing-the-passer call.
2. Win the turnover battle: This is an obvious key since the Bears lead the league with a plus-14 turnover ratio and have the most takeaways with 20 and most interceptions (13).
That was a key part of the Vikings’ formula for success last season, when they led the NFL with 33 takeaways (24 interceptions, which also ranked first) and were third in turnover ratio at plus-12. It’s been a significant drop-off this season with only nine takeaways, three picks, and a minus-7 turnover ratio (third worst).
A big part of the problem has been injuries to top defenders such as Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Harrison Smith, who all have missed multiple games. They’re all back now, but Pro Bowl edge/OLB Jonathan Greenard has missed practice this week with a shoulder injury, and he would be a huge loss if he can’t play against the Bears. Greenard had a critical overtime sack on Caleb Williams in the Vikings’ victory in Chicago last season, and he is such a key player as a pass rusher and run defender.
3. Run the ball like in Detroit: the Vikings were having a great day running against the Ravens (6.7 yards per carry), but abandoned the run due to the penalties creating longer down-and-distance, according to O’Connell. They still should’ve continued to run even when it was 1st-and-15, since Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason were running well, which would have eased the pressure on McCarthy, who took 12 QB hits. Jones and Mason had a combined 13 rushing attempts last Sunday, which should never happen.
The Bears have been shaky on run D this season (ranked 24th). The Vikings rushed for 120 yards in the opener at Chicago. The Bears’ D allowed the Giants to rush for 169 yards, including 66 yards and two rushing TDs by QB Jaxson Dart, before he left with a concussion that probably cost the Giants last week’s game.
McCarthy should be able to run for several first downs and perhaps a TD as he did in the opener in Chicago. But he needs to get down to avoid the big hits.
A major component of the Vikings’ win in Detroit two weeks ago was their surprisingly outrushing the Lions 142-65. They need to repeat that this week. A return to the lineup by Josh Oliver (out the past two weeks with a foot injury, but he’s back at practice) would help the run game and pass protection and allow T.J. Hockenson not to have to stay in and block as much.
4. McCarthy must be protected: Chicago has 21 sacks led by Montez Sweat with 5.5. The Vikings’ offensive line must give McCarthy time to throw and expose the Bears’ secondary, which is missing top corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. The Vikings need much better play from Pro Bowl tackle Brian O’Neill, who struggled last week in pass protection and had three false starts. And McCarthy can’t hold the ball, which has happened too often.
5. Get the ball to Jefferson, Addison, and Jalen Nailor (off his 124-yard game last week), along with Hockenson, who has not been targeted enough by McCarthy (only eight catches in J.J.’s four starts).
If McCarthy has time to throw, he can make some big plays downfield, but he needs to be careful against the Bears’ secondary, which leads the league in interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both had over 100 receiving yards, and Joe Flacco threw for 470 yards and four TDs against the Bears’ secondary two weeks ago, so the Vikings’ passing game should have a big game.
6. Stop the run, including Caleb Williams’ scrambles—the Bears rank second in rushing, but again, we must factor in their more manageable schedule. D’Andre Swift is a quality back (544 yards with a 4.8-yard average this season). The Vikings did a good job on him in the opener (17 carries, 53 yards, 3.1 average). Seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai is a solid second back. He rushed for 176 yards vs. the Bengals two weeks ago when Swift was out.
Williams scored the winning TD on a 17-yard run in the final two minutes last week to beat the Giants. He had 58 yards on the ground and a rushing TD in the first meeting with the Vikings this season.
7. Pressure Williams and sack him: After taking a league-high 68 sacks last year when his O-line was less proficient and he often held the ball too long, Williams has been sacked only 14 times this year. The Bears are providing better protection, and Williams is getting the ball out quicker, which will probably be the case for McCarthy as he gains more experience. The Vikings need to keep Williams in the pocket and bring him down when they have the opportunity.
8. Contain a fine receiving corps: wide receivers Rome Odunze (37 catches, 559 yards, 6 TDs) and D.J. Moore (30 catches, 403 yards, 1 TD), and rookie first-round tight end Colston Loveland (21 catches, 289 yards, 2 TDs) present a coverage challenge for the Vikings linebackers and secondary when Williams has time to throw.
9. Myles Price no fumbles and big returns: After his two fumbles last week (including the lost fumble that changed the game), Price must protect the ball. No matter how talented he is, Price won’t keep his job if he becomes a chronic fumbler.
The Bears’ kickoff coverage unit gave up a 98-yard TD return in the Cincinnati game, so perhaps Price can make a big return as he did in Detroit.
The Vikings also have an advantage in the kicking game with Will Reichard over the Bears’ Cairo Santos, who has three missed field goals this season, including a 50-yarder in the fourth quarter in the opener. Reichard has only two missed field goals this season (and is perfect on PATs), and one of his misses likely hit a wire in the London game.
Prediction
I expect a back-and-forth game with both teams moving the ball effectively. I think the Vikings will be better penalty-wise, and their running game, led by Jones, will have a big impact with several key runs from McCarthy. It will set up the play-action game for some big plays to Jefferson, Addison, and Nailor, with Hockenson targeted more than he has lately.
Williams will make some big plays running and passing to Odunze and Loveland, but I see Van Ginkel forcing a key turnover.
Reichard will be a key contributor, and Price will hang onto the ball and have a couple of good returns. It will all add up to a 30-26 Vikings win, improving to 5-5 and 3-0 in division games, heading into another pivotal game next week at Lambeau Field against the Packers.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 11
1. In the NFC North on Sunday, Green Bay will rebound from its loss to Philadelphia with a win over the Giants, who will be missing their starting QB, Dart, so Jameis Winston will start and throw his usual two or three picks.
The Eagles will beat the Lions on Sunday night by following the Vikings’ blueprint to slow down the Lions’ offense: using inside pressure from All-Pro DT Jalen Carter and blitzes up the middle to expose Jahmyr Gibbs’ poor pass protection and limit his impact in the passing game. Jalen Hurts will pass and run well in an Eagles win.
2. There are several exciting matchups within divisions on Sunday. Seattle is at the Rams with first place in the NFC West on the line as both teams are 7-2. I like Matthew Stafford—who has been super-hot lately (20 TD passes and no interceptions in the last six games)–to lead the Rams to victory. Sam Darnold was sacked nine times the last time he faced the Rams as Vikings QB in the 2024 wild card round. He’ll have another rough day on Sunday.
Denver has an opportunity to basically end Kansas City’s hopes of a tenth straight AFC West title if it can knock off the Chiefs in the Sunday doubleheader game. I’d like the Broncos’ chances better if they get Patrick Surtain (strained pec) back this week. But I’m picking Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Company to get a big road win and stay in the race for the division title.
In a battle of 6-3 teams, I like the Bills and Josh Allen to right the ship after last week’s poor performance in the loss at Miami and beat Tampa Bay in an exciting game at Buffalo.
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