Can Pro Bowl Snubbed Vikings — without McCarthy — Pull off Sweep of Lions?
A year ago, the late-season matchup (Week 18 in 2024) between the Vikings and Lions pitted two 14-2 teams battling for the NFC North title and the No. 1 NFC seed. As we all know, that game didn’t turn out well for Sam Darnold and the Vikings.
Minnesota plays spoiler as Detroit clings to fading postseason odds, with Christmas Day carrying elimination stakes for the Lions.
What a difference it will be for both teams come Christmas Day at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Lions have lost two straight and are on the verge of playoff elimination at 8-7, needing two wins — at Minnesota and at Chicago — and two Packers losses — home vs. Ravens, at Minnesota — to earn the NFC’s last seed. They come off a crushing last-second loss to the Steelers on Sunday in Detroit.
The Spoiler Role Minnesota Didn’t Expect
The Vikings have won three straight to reach 7-8, but are not playoff-bound. They’re trying to build positive vibes towards next season and were hoping QB J.J. McCarthy could recover from a right hand injury sustained in the Giants game and continue his late-season progress this week, but Kevin O’Connell said Tuesday that McCarthy has a small hairline fracture that will sideline him on Thursday. His availability for the finale against Green Bay is still to be determined.
Max Brosmer will get his second start after a solid second-half performance against the Giants, including a great throw on third-and-17 for a 21-yard sideline completion to Justin Jefferson, which set up the winning field goal. He completed 7 of 9 passes for 52 yards in the Giants game. Brosmer had an awful first start in Seattle (four interceptions) against a top-10 defense, but the Lions’ 23rd-ranked D and 25th-ranked pass defense are not of the same caliber.
The Vikings are seeking a season sweep of the Lions after stopping a five-game losing streak in the series with an exciting 27-24 Week 9 victory in Detroit. Along with wanting to extend their current winning streak, the Vikings may have a chip on their shoulder as a team after being shut out in Pro Bowl balloting for 2025.
They had seven Pro Bowlers last season and deserved to have at least a couple players make it — kicker Will Reichard for sure (only two missed kicks and 9 of 11 from 50 plus compared to five by Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey who was picked) and possibly their best defensive lineman Jalen Redmond in his breakout season, one of their inside linebackers — Eric Wilson or Blake Cashman — and long snapper Andrew DePaola who was selected the last three years and continues to be excellent.
Justin Jefferson always is a Pro Bowl-caliber player but his numbers are down due to the team’s quarterback inconsistency.
Despite their lesser season, the Lions still managed to place five players on the Pro Bowl team — RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, OT Penei Sewell, DE Aidan Hutchinson, and LB Jack Campbell.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win to complete a sweep of Lions:
1. Win the turnover battle: Vikings minus 14 (second worst), Lions +10 (fifth best). The teams broke even in the last meeting with the Lions intercepting McCarthy late in the first half (with no points as a result) and Cashman forcing a David Montgomery fumble (recovered by Harrison Smith) that led to McCarthy’s 9-yard TD run and a 10-point lead in the third quarter.
In a twist compared to many of their losses this season, the Vikings have lost the turnover battle (minus 1) in the last two games, but still beat the Cowboys and Giants. That’s not a good formula for success in most weeks.
2. Run the ball: as was the case when Brosmer relieved McCarthy against the Giants, the Vikings’ running game will be leaned on heavily in Brosmer’s second career start. Aaron Jones fought through an ankle injury on Sunday to deliver 85 rushing yards and a game-closing 9-yard run. The Vikings outrushed the Lions 142-65 last time, with Jones gaining 78 yards on only nine carries (8.7 average), and McCarthy had the key 9-yard TD run.
The O-line did a good enough job in the run game last week (114 yards) despite missing Christian Darrisaw (now on IR) and with center Ryan Kelly leaving in the second quarter with his third concussion (so Michael Jurgens is expected to start, and he had a key block on Jones’ last run on Sunday).
Detroit’s D had a bad game in run defense against the Steelers with 230 yards allowed (143 yards and two TDs by Jaylen Warren). The Lions will surely load the box to stop the run, so Brosmer will have to take some shots downfield.
3. Brosmer get the ball out quick and O-line protect him: the Lions sacked McCarthy five times in the Week 9 meeting. He threw for only 143 yards, but the Lions’ pass defense is weaker now due to injuries in the secondary, as excellent starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are on IR, along with beginning corner Terrion Arnold.
Jefferson was terrific on wide receiver screens last week as he made several first downs.
The Vikings need to give Justin Skule help at left tackle as they did last week with Josh Oliver and C.J. Ham.
4. No more drops: Addison (dropped TD vs. Giants, eight drops this season), Nailor (bobbled pass into an interception), and even Jefferson had drops on Sunday and must catch the passes thrown to them against a suspect secondary that is missing three starters — excellent safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph and corner Terrion Arnold.
The Vikings must continue to get the ball to Jefferson after he had six catches for 85 yards last week, six catches for 47 yards in the first Lions game this season, and he’s had a bunch of huge games against Detroit over the years. Jefferson needs 83 receiving yards for his sixth straight 1,000-plus yard season. He needs only 26 yards to pass Randy Moss (8,375 yards) for the NFL record of most receiving yards in a player’s first six seasons.
5. Once again contain the dangerous Jahmyr Gibbs: the super-quick Pro Bowl back killed the Vikings in both games last season, but the Vikings shut him down (nine carries, 25 yards) in the earlier meeting. Along with the Vikings stopping him, Gibbs has been bottled up the last four games (only 181 rushing yards, 2.9 average per carry).
He still ranks seventh in the league with 1,102 rushing yards, has 13 rushing TDs (second-most) plus 72 catches for 560 yards and four TDs. After his terrible game against the Steelers (seven carries for two yards), the Lions will try to get Gibbs going. The Vikings should again throw heavy inside blitzes from Wilson and Cashman at Gibbs, who was pulled last time for his poor pass protection. That’s a great way to get one of their best players off the field.
6. Pressure Goff like last time: five sacks in Week 9, and the Vikings must have a similar plan of attack to force sacks and takeaways. The Lions’ offensive line has not been as good without retired Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow and the loss in free agency of guard Kevin Zeitler.
The Vikings need a strong performance from their defensive line, led by Jalen Redmond and Jonathan Allen, and from their linebackers (along with Harrison Smith’s blitzes) to help stop the run and pressure Goff. But aim lower — Wilson, Smith, and others — to avoid the roughing-the-passer calls the Vikings were hit with twice against Jaxson Dart, who they still sacked five times.
The Vikings need a lot of pressure and some sacks from edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner (each with 5.5 sacks), along with Wilson (6.5 sacks) and Redmond (six sacks).
7. Cover the talented Lions receivers: Pro Bowler Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are a handful, but there’s no Sam LaPorta (back) this time. St. Brown has had a lot of success against the Vikings (nine catches for 97 yards last time), and Williams beat Isaiah Rodgers deep for a late TD to make the first game closer at the end.
The Vikings want to extend their impressive streak of allowing no TD passes in six straight games, which is one game shy of tying the NFL record.
8. Limit the penalties: it was a problem against the Giants (11 for 90 yards) after only three penalties in each of the previous games against Washington and Dallas. The Lions had 10 penalties and the Vikings seven in the first meeting.
9. Reichard outkick Jake Bates (six missed field goals) and no special teams miscues by the coverage units.
One of the biggest plays in the earlier game was Levi Drake Rodriguez’s blocked field goal in the fourth quarter that was returned 41 yards by Rodgers and set up Reichard’s field goal that put the Vikings ahead 27-17.
Prediction
If McCarthy had been able to play, I would’ve felt better about the Vikings’ chances, but I still would’ve picked Detroit. I think Brosmer will have a decent game, but he’ll turn the ball over at a key moment. Goff will be under pressure, but he’ll connect on some big plays with St. Brown and Williams, and WR Isaac TeSlaa (five TD receptions this season) will be a factor. I see a close game that a desperate Lions team wins 27-26.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 17
1. The Packers and Bears have big games this weekend. Green Bay is at home vs. Baltimore in cold Lambeau on Saturday night. The Packers need to win to clinch a playoff spot and stay in the division race if the Bears lose at San Francisco on Sunday. It could be Malik Willis if Jordan Love is out with a concussion, against Tyler Huntley, who relieved Lamar Jackson (back) in the Ravens’ loss to the Patriots on Sunday. Baltimore is a playoff longshot, and I think the Packers win at home.
San Francisco looked great in a dominant win over Indianapolis on Monday. The 49ers can win the NFC West and the NFC top seed if they beat the Bears and follow it up with a win over the Seahawks in Week 18, with both games at home. I think the 49ers have the momentum with five straight wins and Brock Purdy coming off a five-TD game vs. Indy. They’ll win both games.
2. In other big games with playoff implications, I pick the host Chargers over the Texans, the Broncos to beat the Mahomes-less Chiefs, the Seahawks in a road win at Carolina, and the Bills at home over the Eagles.
3. The NFL hit DK Metcalf with a two-game suspension after he took a swing at a Lions fan on Sunday. Players are told emphatically to never engage with fans in that manner, so it’s good the league came down hard on Metcalf.
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