Vikings’ Last 5 Games about J.J. McCarthy and Turnover Ratio Improvement
Now that the playoffs are a long shot this season, the focus for the Vikings shifts to significant improvement on two fronts: J.J. McCarthy’s quarterback play and the team’s horrendous turnover ratio, which stands at a league-worst minus 15 heading into Sunday’s home game against Washington.
The last five games show real progress from J.J. McCarthy, as the Minnesota Vikings’ turnover ratio improves and the offense settles into a cleaner rhythm.
Through six starts this season, McCarthy’s record is 2-4, and he’s still seeking his first home victory. His 57.9 passer rating ranks last among regular NFL starters, and his 54.1% completion rate is second-worst. The Vikings’ passing game has dropped from sixth-best last season under Sam Darnold to 29th. Scoring is down 6.7 points per game. McCarthy’s tendency to hold the ball has resulted in 20 sacks, and he has yet to play a turnover-free game.
Fasten Your Seatbelt because It’s all about J.J. McCarthy for the Vikings Now
Which leads us to that disastrous turnover ratio. McCarthy’s 10 interceptions and one lost fumble have played a big part (along with Max Brosmer and his four picks last week in Seattle) in the team’s league-high 26 giveaways. The defense ranks 10th in yards allowed, but they’ve only produced 11 takeaways (8th fewest) after leading the NFL with 33 last season (which played a big part in the 14-win season).
A turnaround in McCarthy’s play and in the defense returning to their takeaway-forcing ways will give the team and the fan base hope for a playoff return in 2026.
Suppose McCarthy doesn’t make significant strides over the last five games. In that case, it creates a scenario where Minnesota must bring in a quality veteran QB to challenge for the starting job (perhaps trading for Mac Jones who has played well with a 5-3 record and 97.4 passer rating when Brock Purdy has been out injured this season or dare we say, trading for Kirk Cousins to return or perhaps Ryan Tannehill will come out of retirement).
Even if McCarthy plays much better, the team should try to sign a better No. 2 than Carson Wentz (with Max Brosmer having significantly damaged his chance to make inroads).
At 3-9 and on a seven-game losing streak, the Commanders are one of the most disappointing teams this season after going 12-5 and winning two playoff games in 2024 (including their road upset of top-seeded Detroit in the divisional round) before losing at Philadelphia in the NFC title game. The Commanders have lost their last two games in overtime, including at home to Denver last week (27-26), when a two-point conversion attempt to win the game by QB Marcus Mariota was knocked down.
After missing the last three games with a dislocated elbow, Pro Bowl QB Jayden Daniels was listed as a full practice participant on Thursday, so we’ll see if he returns on Sunday. Like Minnesota, the Commanders have dealt with many injuries to key starters, including Daniels and Pro Bowl WR Terry McLaurin, as well as a rash of injuries on defense.
And similar to the Vikings, Washington has a poor turnover ratio at minus 8 (after plus 1 last year). Their seven takeaways are second-fewest in the league.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Commanders:
1. McCarthy plays well with a simplified game plan and gets Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison going: Kevin O’Connell says he’s looking for completions from McCarthy, and he’s trying to simplify the offense for the young QB. We should see more quick passes, such as slants and screens.
Washington’s pass defense ranks 31st, so this would be a good week for McCarthy and the passing game to be more efficient and perhaps throw in a few explosive plays to Jefferson and Addison against a suspect secondary. The Vikings need to get a frustrated Jefferson involved early and often after he had only two catches for four yards last week, which is inexcusable usage of a top receiver.
2. Run the ball and catch the ball to help McCarthy: the Commanders are 27th against the rush which should create an opportunity for Aaron Jones (who says he’ll play after hurting his shoulder again in Seattle) and Jordan Mason to have good games on the ground (and McCarthy on some key scrambles but he must get down or out of bounds to avoid big hits).
The Vikings’ issues with dropped passes this season are well documented, including at least three last week (two by Addison). That has to change.
3. Win the turnover battle: minus 11 over the last four games (all losses)… it’s a battle of two of the three worst teams on turnover ratio. It stands to reason that whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game, which is usually the case.
4. Stop the run—Washington ranks third, led by seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt with 518 yards and four TDs. Their QBs will run a fair amount, so the defense has to spy on the QB with Blake Cashman. DT Jonathan Allen faces his former team for the first time, and he’ll be highly motivated to play well.
5. Pressure Mariota or Daniels and cover WRs McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, TE Zach Ertz along with WR Noah Brown if he returns this week from groin and knee injuries that have limited him to two games this season: the physical ex-49er Samuel leads the team with 58 catches for 534 yards and five TDs and the 35-year old Ertz had 10 catches for 106 yards last week so the safeties must cover him well (he has 49 catches, 493 yards and four TDs this season.
McLaurin has only 20 catches in his five games, but had 82 catches, 1,096 yards, and 13 TDs last season.
Mariota is coming off an excellent game against Denver in the overtime loss. He passed for 294 yards and one TD and ran for 55 yards against the league’s fifth-ranked defense. But he threw a pick in OT that led to Miami’s 16-13 win in Madrid the previous week.
6. Will Reichard outkick Jake Moody, no big returns allowed, and Myles Price make some big returns: Moody missed 11 kicks with the 49ers last season, and he’s on his third team this year. Reichard is having an outstanding season with only two missed kicks.
The Commanders’ kickoff returners rank second in the league. They must be contained, and Price breaking a big return (and hanging onto the ball) would be a huge boost.
7. Limit the penalties, and the Vikings crowd forced a few false starts: the Vikings had 10 penalties last week. They need to take advantage of being at home and keep the crowd in the game with a fast start and no major miscues, so the crowd noise can affect the Washington offense.
Prediction
I see a close game with McCarthy playing his first game without a turnover and the Vikings having success on the ground. In the final analysis, either Daniels or Marcus Mariota are more reliable than McCarthy at this time, and the Commanders come in with some confidence after playing a solid game last week in losing 27-26 in OT to 10-2 Denver so I’ve got to pick Washington 24-23 but this game is a toss-up and whoever wins the turnover battle will emerge victorious.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 14
1. In the NFC North, it’s a battle for first place between surprising 9-3 Chicago (off their Black Friday upset win in Philly with 281 rushing yards) heading to frigid Lambeau Field to take on 8-3-1 Green Bay. The Packers just won in Detroit with Jordan Love throwing four TD passes and Micah Parsons having 2.5 sacks. The Packers will win this game to make a big move towards the division title. The two teams meet again in two weeks at Soldier Field.
2. Two games in the AFC will determine first place: Indianapolis and Daniel Jones (with a fibula injury) head to Jacksonville with both teams 8-4, and they’ll meet again in Indy in Week 17. I like the Jags in this matchup. Pittsburgh is at Baltimore, with both teams 6-6 and coming off bad home losses—Baltimore to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh to Buffalo. I’ll take the Ravens this week, with their rematch in the regular-season finale.
7-5 Houston has won four straight and takes the league’s No. 1 defense (led by ex-Vikings Danielle Hunter with 11 sacks) to Kansas City on Sunday night. It’s must-win time for the Chiefs (and perhaps for the Texans, too). K.C. is two games behind in the wild card race. The rest of the league would be happy if the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes miss the playoffs for the first time in his career, but I think the Chiefs will beat the Texans.
An important inter-conference game sends the up-and-down Eagles (8-4) to L.A. on Monday night to face the Chargers, who are hoping to have QB Justin Herbert playing after surgery this week on a fractured non-throwing hand. The Eagles will be missing their best defensive player—All-Pro DT Jalen Carter. I like the Chargers to win.
You must be logged in to post a comment.