McCarthy vs. Penix Rematch Headlines Vikings-Falcons
The last time J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. quarterbacked their teams was in Michigan and McCarthy’s national championship victory over Penix’s Washington team in January of 2024.
The Wolverines secured a dominant 34-13 victory, with McCarthy needing only 18 passes (10 completions for 140 yards) and adding 31 yards on the ground. Penix passed for 255 yards but was intercepted twice, while McCarthy played turnover-free.
The spotlight is on J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. as they square off again, this time in Vikings–Falcons. Here’s what to know about SNF.
Following a gritty comeback win in Chicago where McCarthy shone late, the Vikings and their young QB aim to replicate the college title game’s success in the Sunday night home opener against Penix and the Falcons.
Former Vikings GM Jeff Diamond Previews Vikings-Falcons
It’s sure to be a raucous crowd that is excited to see McCarthy in his home regular season debut and to see what DC Brian Flores has in store for Penix after the Vikings defense shut down Caleb Williams and the Bears offense on the ensuing nine drives following the shaky opening drive on Monday night.
Will there be a Kirk Cousins appearance in the game? I highly doubt it unless Penix gets hurt or plays awful.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Falcons to reach 2-0.
1. Run it well to set up play action: This was a key in getting the offense untracked and easing the Bears’ pressure on McCarthy as the offensive line and power back Jordan Mason were dominant in the fourth quarter. Mason gained 54 of his 68 rushing yards in the final quarter.
Atlanta’s run defense was middle of the pack last season, and Tampa Bay had 101 rushing yards in the opener, which the Bucs won 23-20 in Atlanta. Baker Mayfield had 39 yards on the ground, so along with Mason and Aaron Jones, McCarthy should be a factor with his legs as he was on the clinching TD run in Chicago.
2. Attack the suspect Atlanta secondary: Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison torched the Falcons’ pass defense in the Vikings’ 42-21 home win in Week 14 last season. Darnold had a season-best 157.9 rating with five TD passes (three to Addison and two to Jefferson).
Addison is out for two more games with his suspension (he had 133 receiving yards in that game), but Jefferson should have more than the seven targets he had on Monday night (he had 132 receiving yards vs. Atlanta last season). A.J. Terrell and ex-Viking Mike Hughes are back as starting corners, and Hughes was beaten for two TDs by Emeka Egbuka of the Bucs last Sunday.
T.J. Hockenson needs to be more involved in the passing game this week after being targeted only four times in Chicago (three catches for 15 yards, but he blocked well, especially on McCarthy’s TD run). Hockenson had four catches for 45 yards against the Falcons last year.
It should be a big night for Jalen Nailor with Addison out and the Falcons double-covering Jefferson.
3. McCarthy must start faster than last game when he was hesitant, held the ball, and took several sacks before his terrific fourth quarter rally (that earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors, another confidence booster for McCarthy and the team). He needs to release the ball more quickly and avoid holding onto it. A strong running game and the screen game will help to slow down the pass rush.
The Vikings must be better than 3 of 12 from last week on third down and fine-tune their time management on getting play calls in and the team lined up so McCarthy is not getting the snap with only a few seconds on the play clock as occurred too often in Chicago (including on the Pick-6).
It would certainly help if Christian Darrisaw could start at left tackle to better protect the QB compared to Justin Skule, who struggled until later in the game against the Bears. Kevin O’Connell should trust McCarthy to air it out more in the early going, unlike the Bears game, where the loud crowd and pass rush were significant factors (and the Vikings crowd knows to keep the noise down when the team is on offense).
4. Stop Bijan Robinson in his dual threat role: Robinson was a Pro Bowler last season with 1,887 combined yards rushing and receiving and 15 TDs. Tyler Allgeier is a solid No. 2 back. In the game last year, Robinson rushed for 92 yards with one TD, and Allgeier gained 63 yards. The Vikings finished second against the run, but that was not a good day for the defense, allowing 158 yards on the ground and 496 yards of total offense (Kirk Cousins threw for 344 yards but no TDs and two picks).
Robinson and Allgeier were shut down by the Bucs last week, each with only 24 rushing yards, but Robinson had a big game as a receiving back — 100 yards on six catches, including a 50-yard TD. So, the Vikings need to cover him well out of the backfield.
Eric Wilson will take on most of that responsibility with Blake Cashman, unfortunately, on injured reserve for at least the next four weeks after sustaining a hamstring injury chasing Williams. Wilson played well when he stepped in for Cashman in the fourth quarter in Chicago.
One of the problems for the Falcons’ run game is that their excellent right tackle, Kaleb McGary, is on injured reserve. Elijah Wilkinson is his replacement, and he’ll have his hands full with the Vikings’ front seven on run and pass plays.
5. Flores and the D bring the heat early and often against Penix to protect the secondary: Williams completed his first 10 passes as Flores held off on blitzing early in the game. He shouldn’t wait with the loud home crowd to help the pass rushers. Flores usually feasts on young QBs, and I expect a rough night for Penix.
Pro Bowl edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel put plenty of pressure on Williams, but couldn’t sack him. Penix can run, but not as fast as Williams. The Vikings hope Van Ginkel has recovered from a concussion so he can play, and Dallas Turner also could be a factor in pressuring Penix, along with DTs Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen (six pressures each in the opener with two sacks for Hargrave). Look for timely blitzes from Ivan Pace, Wilson, and Josh Metellus.
6. No secondary coverage busts: It was fortunate for the Vikings that Williams felt the pressure in the second half and missed several open receivers. The Vikings’ corners and safeties must shore up their coverage, especially if talented receivers Drake London and Darnell Mooney are playing after dealing with shoulder injuries.
Kyle Pitts is a threat at tight end and must be covered well. The Purple need Harrison Smith back in the lineup asap. He is practicing on a limited basis.
7. Win the turnover battle: Last year’s game against the Falcons turned when Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions to kill drives. Penix was turnover-free last week (he did have a fumble that Robinson recovered), but he threw three interceptions last season in his limited play time (three starts after Cousins was benched).
McCarthy must obviously try to avoid bad throws, such as the Pick-6 on Monday, and pick his spots to run, as Mayfield did successfully last week against the Atlanta defense (39 rushing yards).
8. Special teams play well: it was mostly positive in Chicago with a blocked punt by Wilson, Reichard’s 59-yard field goal, a great night returning punts by Myles Price (17 yard average) and a key punt for a fair catch at the end by Ryan Wright after Ty Chandler’s important kickoff return from deep in the end zone to help drain the clock.
On the downside, the Vikings had poor kickoff coverage, averaging 31.3 yards per return.
The Vikings could have an edge at kicker with Reichard over Younghoe Koo, who missed a potential game-tying 44-yard field goal as time expired against the Bucs. The Falcons signed ex-Viking Parker Romo to their practice squad, so the pressure is on Koo.
Price will likely take on kickoff return duties along with being the punt returner after Chandler was placed on IR with a knee injury.
9. Limit the penalties and home crowd make it tough on Falcons offense: the Vikings had eight penalties for 50 yards on Monday night, but the Bears were far worse with 12 penalties for 127 yards.
The Vikings’ home crowd will be amped up after the win in Chicago, and they will make it tough on Penix and the Atlanta offense, so I expect several false starts on Sunday night.
Prediction
I don’t think we’ll see a 21-point win like last year’s game, but I think McCarthy and his excellent skill players will have a good night against the Atlanta defense with a solid mix of running and passing. The defense will benefit from the crowd noise, which will help the pass rushers get a good jump. That will produce four sacks and two turnovers as they limit the running game and force Penix to throw with Flores’ schemes, making it difficult for the second-year QB.
I pick the Vikings to win 30-24 and improve to 2-0.
Around the NFL Observations
1. I’m sure there are plenty of fans around the country who think the Philly at Kansas City Super Bowl rematch should’ve been the Sunday night game instead of Vikings-Falcons, but Eagles vs. Chiefs is the doubleheader game on FOX.
It’s hard to see Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs starting 0-2 after losing their opener to the Chargers, but the absence of deep threat Xavier Worthy due to a shoulder injury hampers the Chiefs’ offense. I think the Eagles are the better team, as they showed in the Super Bowl romp, and I’m picking Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on Sunday.
2. The Lions host the Bears in a matchup of teams trying to avoid an 0-2 start. Jared Goff and the Detroit offense struggled in Green Bay, and I think the Bears will hang in there early, but the Lions are the more talented team. Coach Dan Campbell and the home crowd will have the Lions fired up. Bears Coach Ben Johnson will lose in his return to Detroit, where he was a successful OC.
3. The Bengals are the Vikings’ Week 3 opponent in Minnesota. Cincy’s offense struggled in the opener at Cleveland, with Joe Burrow throwing for only 113 yards and star receiver Ja’Marr Chase having only two catches for 26 yards. But the Bengals got the opening win with their defense playing much better than last season, and they host Jacksonville this Sunday. The Jaguars also won on opening day at home over Carolina.
I see Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, and the Bengals getting it going with a relatively easy win to set up a matchup of 2-0 teams next Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium.
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