Vikings QB Faces a Big Reality Check in Dallas
As the Vikings and revived J.J. McCarthy head to Dallas Sunday night to face the Cowboys, I think back to lots of Vikings-Cowboys memories I have from my career.
The Vikings head to Dallas for a pivotal Week 15 matchup, with J.J. McCarthy facing a major reality check as Minnesota tries to keep its playoff push alive.
The 50th anniversary of one of the worst moments in Vikings history–other than the four Super Bowl losses–comes up this month. I’m talking about the Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson Hail Mary TD pass to beat the Vikings in the 1975 playoffs, a play that should’ve been called offensive pass interference on Pearson for pushing off on Vikings corner Nate Wright.
I started my Vikings front office career five days after that game, and it was like a morgue when I walked into the old Vikings offices on France Avenue in Edina. That was one of the best Vikings teams ever, with a 10-0 start that season for a team loaded with Hall of Famers. But the good news for me in my first season with the team was that the awful loss was a motivating factor for the 1976 Vikings, who returned to the Super Bowl.
Why Week 15 in Dallas Is a Reality Check for J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings
I have fond memories of two Thanksgiving Day wins in Dallas. Darrin Nelson’s walk-off TD run in overtime beat the Cowboys in 1987. We made it to the NFC title game that year and also in our 15-1 season in 1999 when star rookie Randy Moss caught three long TD passes in the 46-36 victory.
This year’s game was expected to be between two playoff contenders, but both teams have been inconsistent, and their playoff hopes are slim. The 5-8 Vikings are a long shot, while the Cowboys’ loss last week in Detroit dropped them to 6-6-1 and damaged their chances. They sit 1 ½ games behind the Eagles in the NFC East and 2 ½ games behind in the wild card race.
It’s an intriguing matchup regarding whether J.J. McCarthy can win back-to-back games for the first time in his career and continue his excellent performance from the 31-0 win over Washington, when he threw three TD passes and had no interceptions for the first time in seven starts. Dallas ranks 29th on D and last against the pass, so McCarthy could have another big game.
Another major storyline involves the Vikings’ No. 8 overall defense and No. 4 pass defense trying to force turnovers, as they did with three last week, and to contain the No. 1-ranked Cowboys offense (and top-ranked passing game) led by QB Dak Prescott and his dangerous receiving corps. WRs CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy, and tight end Jake Ferguson, will provide a big challenge for the Vikings’ secondary. And Javonte Williams is a thousand-yard rusher with nine TDs who runs behind a good offensive line.
Here are my keys to a Vikings prime-time win over the Cowboys:
1. McCarthy follows his script from the Washington game, including a fast start: this figures to be a high-scoring game (Dallas averages 29.3 points per game, third-ranked), so McCarthy needs to be accurate and make good decisions as he did last week. Getting off to a fast start, as occurred last week (up 14-0 after two drives), would reinforce the team’s confidence and be a huge help to both the offense and defense.
Kevin O’Connell should continue the quick-passing game and short drops out of shotgun for McCarthy, so he doesn’t hold the ball and get sacked or make late throws that are picked off.
He must get the ball to his talented wide receivers (especially Justin Jefferson who has only four catches for 15 yards over the past two games along with Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor who should be able to get open against the shaky Cowboys secondary who may or may not see the return of two-time Pro Bowl corner Trevon Diggs after he has missed the last seven games with concussion and knee issues and the Vikings should challenge Diggs if he plays).
McCarthy also should continue to lean on the tight ends (Josh Oliver caught two TD passes and T.J. Hockenson had one TD grab vs. Washington).
2. The Vikings need Christian Darrisaw at his left tackle spot, and he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to his knee. If he’s out, the Vikings’ tight ends and backs will need to help Justin Skule against the Dallas edge rushers that include Jadeveon Clowney, Dante Fowler, and James Houston, who have a combined 12.5 sacks.
3. Run the ball: The Vikings rushed for 162 yards last week with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason combining for 128 yards. That balanced the offense and took some pressure off McCarthy, who also had some key runs. The Dallas D ranks 20th in run defense, but they have two fine DTs in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark. They will be a challenge for the Vikings’ interior O-linemen. Center Ryan Kelly comes off his best game as a Viking, which is a good sign for a player who has missed seven games with concussions.
4. Continue the greater usage of C.J. Ham: the Vikings’ fullback played 41% of the offensive snaps, which helped in pass protection and run blocking. He made a critical blitz pickup on the 98-yard drive to avoid a possible safety against McCarthy last Sunday.
5. Win the turnover battle: going plus three last week was an obvious key to victory for a Vikings team that is now minus 12 in turnover ratio (second-worst), but the Cowboys have similar issues at minus 8 (fourth-worst).
6. Stop the run—Williams is having an excellent season (1,022 rushing yards, 9 TDs). Stopping him will put more pressure on Prescott to make plays in the passing game.
7. Pressure Prescott and cover his fine receiving corps: along with McCarthy producing on offense, I expect this game to come down to whether the Vikings can pressure Prescott into mistakes as the Lions did last week when he was sacked five times and threw two interceptions in Detroit’s 44-30 win.
Pro Bowler Lamb left the Lions game early with a concussion, and he’s been limited this week. If he’s back in the lineup, it’s a considerable challenge to contain Lamb (865 receiving yards, 3 TDs), Pickens (1,179 yards, 8 TDs), and Flournoy (nine catches for 115 yards and a TD last week), along with Ferguson (75 receptions, 554 yards, 7 TDs).
8. Play even or better on special teams: Will Reichard and Pro Bowler Brandon Aubrey are two of the NFL’s best kickers, as each has missed only two field goals this season. Both punters—the Vikings’ Ryan Wright and Bryan Anger of the Cowboys—average over 48 yards per punt. Big returns and no miscues by returner Myles Price can help the Vikings’ cause (with no penalties ruining good returns), and the coverage units must play well.
9. Limit the penalties: only three last week were a factor, and better disciplined play must continue on the road.
Prediction
I see a high-scoring game that should be close. If the Vikings can rattle Prescott into sacks and turnovers, and the O-line performs well in the run game and pass protection, so McCarthy has time to throw, and he has another strong game, the Vikings will have a good shot at winning.
I hate picking the Cowboys, who are one of my least favorite teams. I just don’t trust the Vikings’ secondary to contain Prescott and his receivers enough to get the win. I’m picking Dallas 30-27, but that may be a good omen because I picked Washington last week and we know how that turned out.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 15
1. In the NFC North, 9-4 Chicago has the easiest task as they host 3-10 Cleveland, who just lost at home to then one-win Tennessee. The Bears could regain first place if the 9-3-1 Packers lose in a tough test at 11-2 Denver, but I’m picking the Pack to win behind the strong play of QB Jordan Love and with Micah Parsons forcing Denver QB Bo Nix into a couple turnovers.
The 8-5 Lions are at the 10-3 Rams, needing a win, but likely MVP Matthew Stafford should beat his former team, who will be without Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch after he tore his Achilles last week.
2. In other key games around the NFL: the signing of 44-year-old Philip Rivers is the big story for the reeling Colts (now 8-5 after three straight losses to fall one game back of Jacksonville) following Daniel Jones’ Achilles tear last week. We’ll see if Rivers plays in a tough matchup at 10-3 Seattle (with the No. 6 defense) or if the Colts go with rookie Riley Leonard, who is dealing with a knee problem.
9-4 Buffalo is at 11-2 New England in a big AFC East game. The Patriots can stop the Bills’ five-year run as division champs with a victory. The Pats won the first meeting 23-20 in Week 5 at Buffalo, but I like Josh Allen and the Bills to beat Drake Maye and the Pats on Sunday to tighten that race.
The 6-7 Chiefs have a must-win game at home against the 9-4 Chargers, who I’m picking in this AFC West matchup that should just about knock the Chiefs out of playoff contention for the first time in 11 years.
Miami has won four straight to improve to 6-7, and they head to Pittsburgh on Monday night to face Aaron Rodgers and the AFC North-leading Steelers after their win last week in Baltimore. Pittsburgh should find a way to beat the Dolphins in the wind-up to an exciting Week 15 in the NFL.
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