Are Vikings Catching Ravens at Wrong Time? Previewing Another Pivotal Game
Bud Grant had a wise saying about schedules that I often heard him repeat during my years in the Vikings front office. “It’s not so much who you play as when you play them,” Grant said.
The Vikings host a resurgent Ravens team in Week 10, facing Lamar Jackson and a red-hot offense in a pivotal AFC-North crossover test.
That certainly holds true this week when the Vikings host a Baltimore team that started the season 1-5 with a difficult schedule and a rash of injuries (like the Vikings have endured early this season). The Ravens’ losses were at Buffalo, at Kansas City, and at home vs. Detroit, with two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in the lineup, and against the Texans and Rams, with Jackson out with a hamstring injury.
Former Vikings GM Previews Vikings-Ravens
Other key injuries included Pro Bowl defenders Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith. And Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike was lost for the season with a neck injury after Week 2, which has weakened the defense.
These key players, except for Madubuike, are back now, and the Ravens have won two straight to reach 3-5, two games behind the Steelers in the AFC North, and the two teams will meet in Weeks 14 and 18. The Ravens dominated Miami 28-6 on the road last week and feel like they’re back in the division and playoff hunt as they head to Minnesota.
Thus, it’s less advantageous for the Vikings to face a team that was expected to be a Super Bowl contender after a 12-5 season in which they won their division, beat the Steelers in the wild-card round, and lost a close game in Buffalo in the divisional playoff round. Jackson was selected as the 2024 First-Team All-Pro QB, and he is currently the NFL passer rating leader at 136.7 (14 TDs, 1 interception, and 72.9% completions).
The Ravens are averaging 32 points per game in Jackson’s five starts (2-3 record as he comes off being named AFC Offensive Player of the Week after his 204 passing yards, four TD tosses, no interceptions, and 78% completions in last week’s game).
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is coming off an emotional upset victory at Detroit that gives the Vikings momentum and should have the U.S. Bank Stadium crowd fired up for a pivotal game for both teams. The Vikings want to jump to 5-4 to continue making inroads in the NFC North and wild card races.
If the Vikings win while the Lions get beat at Washington (unlikely with Jayden Daniels out) and the Packers lose on Monday night in Lambeau against the Eagles, the Vikings would be a half-game out of first place in the division. The Ravens want to get closer to the Steelers with a win, and if the Steelers fall on Sunday night at the Chargers.
As is the case with the Ravens, the Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been all season, which sets up a great matchup on Sunday. It’s the start of another challenging stretch that includes 5-3 Chicago here next week, followed by two difficult road tests at Green Bay and NFC West co-leading Seattle. Out of the furnace (Philly, Chargers, Detroit) and into the fire, as they say.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over Lamar and the Ravens:
1. Win the turnover battle: the Vikings broke even against the Lions (although the blocked field goal was considered a turnover by Kevin O’Connell) and stand minus four through eight games. The Ravens aren’t much better at minus three, but Jackson has thrown only one pick all season.
2. McCarthy … be more accurate: he has only 57.6% completions in his three starts. O’Connell wants more completions, and he’d like McCarthy to approach the league’s most accurate passers, such as Jackson at 72.9%, which ranks third, and the Patriots’ Drake Maye (McCarthy’s 2024 draft classmate), who leads at 74.1%. McCarthy’s pick last week in Detroit was thrown slightly behind Jalen Nailor.
McCarthy must also be in sync with his backs so there are no busted plays, as happened twice last week.
3. Run the ball like last week: the Vikings’ offensive success against the Lions started with a better run game (142 yards on the ground that included McCarthy’s 9-yard TD run). Aaron Jones had a great first half (seven carries for 69 yards, a 9.9-yard average) before a shoulder injury knocked him out of the game. The Vikings need Jones and Jordan Mason to run effectively, but Jones missed practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 21st against the run, but it’s been better the last three weeks as they’ve gotten healthier. After trading for safety Alohi Gilman, they’ve utilized Hamilton in more of a slot position rather than a pure safety, and he’s made a lot of run stops from the edge.
4. McCarthy protected by O-line: Baltimore has only 11 sacks (second fewest), but they traded for Dre’Mont Jones, who had 4.5 sacks in his last four games as a Titan. The Vikings’ O-line allowed five sacks last week but should fare better against the Ravens if tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill stay on the field and McCarthy doesn’t hold the ball too long.
5. Get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison against a secondary that has been thrown on this season as the No. 28-ranked pass defense: The Baltimore secondary has quality players, but without much pass rush, they’ve had trouble in several games.
Jefferson is due for a big performance after going under 100 yards in the past three games. Addison has proven to be a favorite target for McCarthy when Jefferson is doubled, which is usually the case (the Lions played him one-on-one often last week, but most teams won’t take that dangerous approach).
If McCarthy has time to throw, he can make some big plays downfield to Jefferson, Addison, and Nailor, along with shorter completions to T.J. Hockenson and Jones out of the backfield if he’s able to play.
6. Contain the dangerous Jackson and still elite RB Derrick Henry: Jackson is having a great season passing, but is running less than in the past. He had only five rushes for 14 yards in his first game back last week, but he said this week his hamstring is fine and he’ll run as needed. The Vikings’ D struggled with the mobile Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard on the edges and Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson in the middle must contain Jackson on the run and keep him from extending passing plays.
DC Brian Flores must be careful in how often he calls blitzes, as Jackson is one of the top-rated QBs against the blitz (including a TD to tight end Mark Andrews last week in Miami). If there are fewer blitzes, then the D-line and edge players must put the pressure on.
Henry had 119 rushing yards at Miami and has 629 yards for the season (sixth-ranked) with six TDs after a tremendous 2024 season in which he ran for 1,921 yards and 16 TDs.
The Vikings must tackle well and avoid the missed tackles, such as Byron Murphy on David Montgomery and Isaiah Rodgers on Jameson Williams in Detroit. A great team effort on defense held the Lions’ run game in check (65 yards), and a similar effort is needed against Henry and the Ravens.
7. Cover the tight ends—Andrews had two TDs last week, Isaiah Lively is dangerous, and Charlie Kolar also had a TD catch in Miami. The linebackers and safeties must be at their best.
8. Cover the talented Ravens receivers led by Zay Flowers and ex-Gopher Rashod Bateman: Rodgers can’t get beat deep as on the last Detroit TD by Williams, who got behind Rodgers, and in the Philly game by AJ Brown on Josh Metellus and Murphy, and DeVonta Smith on his 79-yard TD when he beat Rodgers.
9. Myles Price big returns: the rookie is proving to be the best returner the Vikings have had in many years and among the best in the league. His 61-yarder set up the first TD last week, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh is a former special teams coach, and the Ravens usually are excellent on special teams.
Perhaps this is the week for a game-winning, walk-off field goal by Will Reichard. Seven-time Justin Tucker is gone, but Ravens rookie kicker Tyler Loop is having a good season as he’s converted 12 of 13 on field goals and 22 of 23 on PATs.
10. Limit the penalties: it was a problem again against the Lions (seven penalties for 56 yards), two by Tavierre Thomas on special teams, including a hold that nullified Price’s 99-yard kickoff return TD. No more jumping offside on 4th-and-5 as occurred last week with Greenard.
Prediction
I think it will be an exciting game that will go back and forth. I’m picking the Ravens to win 27-23 with Jackson and his receivers making too many big plays against the Vikings’ secondary. McCarthy will have a good game, but the vet Jackson will outshine him.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 10
1. In the NFC North on Sunday, I expect Detroit to rebound from the Vikings’ loss and get a road win in Washington against the struggling Commanders (3-6), who will be without QB Jayden Daniels (elbow). This is a revenge game for the Lions, who were the NFC’s top seed last season, only to be upset 45-31 at home in the divisional round as Daniels passed for 299 yards and two TDs and ran for 51 yards. Jared Goff threw three interceptions that day.
The Bears should handle the Giants at Soldier Field to improve to a surprising 6-3 before they head to Minnesota next week for a big divisional rematch of the opener won by the Vikings 27-24 in Chicago on McCarthy’s late-game heroics.
I pick the Eagles to beat the erratic Packers (coming off their home loss to Carolina) on Monday night in Green Bay. This is a rematch of last year’s wild-card playoff game, won by Philly 22-10 at home.
2. As we hit the mid-point in the 2025 season, there are a lot of big games this Sunday. Atlanta (3-5) has lost three straight and faces Indianapolis in Berlin. The Colts (7-2) should rebound from their ugly loss in Pittsburgh when Daniel Jones had five turnovers.
In a big NFC West game, the 6-2 Rams are at 6-3 San Francisco. The 49ers won their Week 5 overtime matchup, but I look for the Rams to win this week. 6-2 Seattle is at home against 3-5 Arizona and should get the victory.
New England at Tampa Bay is an intriguing matchup of division leaders (I like the Bucs at home). The Sunday night game sends Pittsburgh to the L.A. Chargers, with the Ravens hoping for a win over the Vikings, coupled with a Steelers loss, to pull them within one game in the AFC North —and that’s what I expect to happen. But the Vikings will try to help the Pittsburgh cause with a win on Sunday.
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