Vikings Should Consider 8.5-Win Prediction an Insult
Preseason predictions in any sport are generally a silly exercise. There are always several teams that unexpectedly rise and fall hard in a league where about half the playoff teams usually turn over from year to year.
The prime example of undervaluing a team last season was the Vikings, who were pegged at 6.5 wins but wound up with 14, which was by far the biggest miss by the prognosticators in Vegas.
Vikings Should Consider 8.5-Win Prediction an Insult
Win total Predictions for the 2025 season have come out from ESPN Bet, and the Vikings should feel mightily insulted (and more so if the Vegas wise guys come in close to the same level).
ESPN Bet has the Vikings at only 8.5 wins. To add to this slight, they have the same number of victories as the Bears, who won five games last season.
How do they justify the 49ers at 10.5 victories when they went 6-11 in 2024 and have lost several quality players, such as Deebo Samuel, this offseason? Even the Super Bowl champion Eagles who have won 12 or more regular season games the last three years are at only 11.5 wins to lead all teams along with the AFC champion Chiefs (a 12-wins or more team in six of the seven seasons Patrick Mahomes has started) and the Ravens and Bills also are at 11.5 wins.
The 14-win Lions come in at 10.5 and the Packers at 9.5, so the Vikings are predicted to have a third-place finish in the NFC North, where they were in contention to win, going into last season’s regular season finale at Detroit.
I understand that betting sites come up with win total predictions and point spreads to facilitate betting action. But it often looks ludicrous, as with the Vikings at this juncture in 2025.
Apparently, ESPN Bet doesn’t buy that the Vikings appear to be among the biggest winners in free agency after key signings of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries on the offensive line, Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line, corners Byron Murphy (re-signing), Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah and what coach Kevin O’Connell calls the “massive” re-signing of likely future Hall of Fame safety Harrison Smith. The addition of Rondale Moore also could become significant if he becomes the No. 3 WR and upgrades the team’s dismal punt returning.
What gives? Is it the quarterback change — from Sam Darnold to the expected ascension of second-year man J.J. McCarthy, who is promising but has no regular season starts as he comes off his knee injury that derailed his rookie season?
Or the seemingly difficult schedule with the Vikings competing in the best division from 2024 that produced three playoff teams — the Lions, Vikings, and Packers — plus the Bears look improved after a strong free agency push (but still have to prove it).
The Vikings will face nine 2024 playoff teams this coming season — including home-and-home vs. Detroit and Green Bay, plus home games against two final four teams in Philadelphia and Washington, and facing Baltimore, along with road tests at Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Chargers. A 9-win Cincinnati team will be another challenging home opponent for the Purple.
Perhaps it’s that the Vikings currently hold only four picks in the upcoming draft. Or part of the reasoning for the tepid outlook on the Vikings could be how they fell from 13 wins in 2022 to 7-10 in the 2023 season.
We’ll see what the league office and the networks think of the Vikings’ chances when the 2025 schedule is released next month. If the Vikings don’t have at least three national TV games beyond the required Thursday night appearance, then we’ll know that the lukewarm outlook on the Vikings and their perceived sizzle factor has carried over to the schedule makers.
Based only on this ESPN Bet prediction, O’Connell clearly can play the Rodney Dangerfield “we don’t get no respect” card with his team when he welcomes them to the offseason program, and he can remind them again at the start of training camp and in his night-before-the-regular-season-opener speech.
Yes, head coaches often publicly say that preseason predictions are meaningless, but they love to jump on any perceived slight. O’Connell did it last year and will do it again this year. And rightfully so.
Around the NFL Observations
The annual league meeting this week resulted in some significant rule changes including: both teams getting the ball in overtime in regular season as was the case only in the playoffs previously (unless a defensive TD is scored), touchbacks on kickoffs changed to starting at the 35 instead of the 30 to encourage more returns and the replay official being able to weigh in on obvious missed calls involving face masks (Sam Darnold vs. the Rams last season as a prime example), tripping and running into or roughing the kicker.
Another positive change was to allow teams to bring back two players placed on IR at the final cut instead of only one player.
Banning the Tush Push (as proposed by Green Bay) generated lots of discussion but was tabled until next month’s league meeting in Eagan. There was plenty of support for banning it (16 teams), but 24 are needed to pass a rule change. The safety factor on the play will be a key consideration, as NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell pointed out, but the Eagles claim there haven’t been any injuries on the play.
Also, the Lions’ proposal to change playoff seeding based on a number of wins instead of prioritizing home games to division champions has been tabled for now.
Why the Vikings Made Their Big Trade …
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on X/Twitter—@jeffdiamondnfl
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