It’s a Swing Game for Vikings against Reeling Eagles
During my years in NFL management, we frequently discussed swing games throughout the season. That meant an upcoming game could swing a season up or down.
That’s how I see the Vikings-Eagles game this Sunday. If the Vikings can knock off the defending Super Bowl champs at U.S. Bank Stadium, they improve to 4-2 and gain momentum heading into the short-week Thursday night game at the AFC West co-leading Chargers.
The Minnesota Vikings face a pivotal matchup against the reeling Philadelphia Eagles at U.S. Bank Stadium, with a win potentially swinging their 2025 season upward.
A loss to Philly drops the Vikings to 3-3 and puts them in a precarious spot with a 3-5 record, which is very possible considering the next two games are at the Chargers and against Detroit (who have swept the Purple in the past two seasons).
It certainly won’t be easy with the Eagles somewhat desperate after two straight losses. Falling at home 21-17 to 4-2 Denver was unexpected, but the most recent 34-17 divisional loss at the one-win (at the time) Giants fell into the rather shocking category, especially with the margin of defeat and the Philly offense being shut out in the second half for the second straight week.
Former GM Jeff Diamond Sizes Up Vikings-Eagles in Week 7
The Vikings come out of their bye healthier. On the injury-riddled offensive line, starters Brian O’Neill and Donovan Jackson are expected to return, and Christian Darrisaw apparently is ready for full-time duty.
J.J. McCarthy is making progress with his sprained ankle but says he’s not yet 100%. Carson Wentz has recovered from his left shoulder injury in the Cleveland game. He’s likely to start his fourth straight game, which is a good thing, given his usually quick release. He faces Eagles DC Vic Fangio’s aggressive defense, which should have Pro Bowl DT Jalen Carter back after missing the Giants game with an ankle injury, and top corner Quinyon Mitchell back from his hamstring injury.
For the Vikings defense, key defender Blake Cashman has recovered from his Week 1 hamstring injury. Pro Bowl OLB/Edge Andrew Van Ginkel is back at practice on a limited basis after missing time. Hence, he’s a possibility to play (and is much needed to help the run defense against Saquon Barkley and the pass rush to pressure and sack Jalen Hurts). Harrison Smith should be close to full-time duty, which will also help the D.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Eagles to reach 4-2:
1. Protect the ball and win the turnover battle: the Vikings lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Steelers and Browns, and have dipped to minus 2 in turnover ratio after ranking third last season at plus 12. The D has seven takeaways after leading the league with 33 last season.
The Eagles are plus 2 with only three giveaways (third-fewest in the league) but only five takeaways (after forcing 26 last year).
The Vikings running backs must hang onto the ball (Jordan Mason has lost fumbles the past two games, and Zavier Scott coughed one up against the Browns), and Wentz has to be careful with his throws.
2. Run the ball: the Eagles rank 27th against the run and just gave up 172 yards to the Giants, including 98 yards and three rushing TDs by Giants rookie Cam Skattebo. Jordan Mason and Zavier Scott should have some room to run.
Josh Oliver and C.J. Ham should be a big part of the blocking effort on the run game.
3. Protect Wentz against the team that drafted him, keep the quick passing game going but take some downfield shots: the Eagles have only nine sacks (seventh-worst) as they’ve missed edge rusher Nolan Smith who is on IR, last year’s leading sacker Josh Sweat signed with Arizona and former Viking Za’Darius Smith retired this week (he had 1.5 sacks). Carter surprisingly has no sacks thus far.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison could have big games if Eagles top corner Quinyon Mitchell is struggling with the hamstring that knocked him out of the Giants game. T. J. Hockenson must come up big in the short passing game as he did for Wentz on the final drive in London.
The Vikings must keep Pro Bowl linebacker Zack Baun from making big plays in the run game, in pass defense, and on blitzes.
4. Be better on third down: the Vikings converted only seven of 23 third downs in the two overseas games. The Giants converted 11 of 16 against the Eagles, which was quite the production with rookie QB Jaxson Dart leading the charge.
5. Stop Barkley: his rushing average had fallen dramatically from 5.8 yards per carry in his league-leading 2,005-yard season in 2024 to only 3.4 yards per carry and 325 yards on the ground (20th ranked).
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is surely emphasizing the need to re-establish Barkley and the 25th-ranked run game (after being No. 2 last season) against the Vikings’ run defense, which has struggled (24th-ranked after being No. 2 in 2024).
The return of Cashman and hopefully Van Ginkel should help, but the tackling needs to be much better from all defensive players (especially Ivan Pace and Theo Jackson). However, if Harrison Smith is back full-time, that should be a significant help.
6. Keep the Eagles out of third and fourth down short yardage: of course, stopping Hurts’ Tush Push is basically impossible, so keeping the Eagles in longer yardage situations is a must. Philly converted only 1 of 9 on third down against the Giants.
Against Denver’s No. 2-ranked defense, the Eagles were held to 48 yards on 20 plays over their last five drives, scoring no points (and the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth).
7. Keep the Eagles passing game in struggling mode: it’s hard to believe how rough it’s been for Philly’s No. 29 passing game considering they have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as a top WR duo (but only one TD catch for each) plus a fine tight end in Dallas Goedert (who does have five TD receptions) and a dangerous receiving back in Barkley.
Hurts was sacked six times by the Giants (18 times for the season, third-most in the league) as his usually stout O-line has been banged up. Pro Bowl guard Landon Dickerson missed last week’s game but is expected to return on Sunday.
Brian Flores should come after Hurts with his usual array of blitzes, and Cashman must watch for Hurts trying to take off and run.
Vikings corner Isaiah Rodgers is having an excellent season (36 passer rating on plays he’s thrown at), and he’d love to have a big game against the team he played for last season.
8. Limit the penalties: it’s been a season-long problem with the Vikings leading the league in penalties per game (10). O’Connell has emphasized it every week, and it’s time for his message to resonate with the players. Perhaps the home crowd can force a few false starts by the Eagles’ O-line, and Jefferson and Addison could draw some pass interference calls.
9. Big plays and solid coverage on special teams: Perhaps Myles Price can bust a big return. Both teams have excellent kickers — Will Reichard has missed only one kick, and that was likely due to hitting a camera wire in London. Jake Elliott, meanwhile, is perfect this season.
Prediction
I expect an exciting game before a boisterous crowd that hasn’t seen the Vikings at home in a month, and now the defending champs are in town.
I think the proud Eagles will be highly motivated to get back on track, but I see the Vikings making enough plays on both sides of the ball to gain a critical victory with Jefferson being a difference maker on offense and Jonathan Greenard on defense (and with only one sack after 12 last season, he’s due for a big sack game).
The Eagles are bound to get things back on track at some point soon, but I don’t think it happens for them this week. I’ve got the Vikings winning 27-21.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 7
1. In the NFC North, Detroit has a big home game on Monday night against 5-1 Tampa Bay, who MVP candidate Baker Mayfield leads. He has been terrific late in games with several close wins in the final minute this season. I see the Lions rebounding from their loss in Kansas City with a narrow victory.
3-1-1 Green Bay should prevail in Arizona, but an upset by the Cardinals would not surprise me, as the Packers haven’t been great on the road (lost in Cleveland and tied in Dallas against two inferior teams).
Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
The Bears are coming on at 3-2 after their upset win in Washington. They are home against 1-5 New Orleans and will win their fourth straight game.
2. The Vikings will be paying attention to the 4-2 Chargers as their next opponent is hosting 5-1 Indianapolis in a matchup of division leaders. I pick the Chargers to beat Daniel Jones and Company.
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