Playoff Memories and Keys to Vikings Beating Rams
My greatest memories from my NFL career were of playoff games when the pressure was at a peak. The postseason victories are indelibly etched in my mind, such as our Vikings playoff runs in my rookie season to the Super Bowl, the 1987 wild card ride with wins at New Orleans and San Francisco (over Joe Montana and the top-seeded Niners), and my 1999 Titans team reaching the Super Bowl as a 13-win wild card team.
The playoff losses always were heartbreaking, with the worst being Super Bowl losses in 1977 with the Vikings and 2000 with the Titans, along with the absolute worst being our 15-1 Vikings’ 1998 home overtime loss to Atlanta in the NFC title game.
Playoff Memories and Keys to Vikings Beating Rams
In my first two years working for the Vikings, we had two dramatic wins over the Rams. In the 1976 NFC title game, we prevailed 24-13 at old Met Stadium on a sub-zero day, and the following year, we won 14-7 in the famous “Mud Bowl” divisional round game, which was played in a downpour at the L.A. Coliseum.
After a 14-win season, it’s a shame the Vikings have to travel to Phoenix rather than hosting in the wild card round, and it’s really sad that the awful fires in L.A. have forced the game to be moved. The Vikings surpassed my 13-3 Titans team from 1999 as the wild card team with the most wins. But that year, with only three divisions in each conference, we at least hosted the wild card round as the four-seed vs. fifth-seeded Buffalo before hitting the road at Indy and Jacksonville.
The Rams are a quality team making their fourth playoff trip in the last five years (including their Super Bowl-winning team in 2021, QB Matthew Stafford’s first year with the team). They came in hot after winning five straight games before resting most of their starters last Sunday in the loss to Seattle.
It’s a rematch of the Week 8 game in L.A., which the Rams won 30-20 on a short week with the Thursday night game. That game ended with the controversial no-facemask call on a late end zone sack/safety on Sam Darnold, which ended the Vikings’ last drive.
Some mitigating factors working against the Vikings that night were the absences of T.J. Hockenson and Blake Cashman due to injuries, the unexpected activation of top Rams WR Puka Nacua (so Brian Flores and the defense had little time to prepare for his presence), and the season-ending knee injury sustained by one of the league’s best left tackles in Christian Darrisaw late in the first half that forced David Quessenberry to relieve him with poor results.
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Rams to advance to the NFC Divisional Playoffs:
1. Darnold return to top form in his first playoff start: Kevin O’Connell and Josh McCown surely are reminding Darnold of how he played in winning 14 games and setting career highs in passer rating, yards, and touchdowns. He needs to get back to being poised and accurate, not rushing throws, stepping up to avoid pressure, and playing with confidence. He must play even with or better than Stafford.
2. Big games for Jets, JA, and Hockenson, along with Jones: Darnold’s supporting cast must play a big role in helping Darnold overcome the disappointment of Detroit. Superstars perform best on the biggest stages, which must be the case with Justin Jefferson this week. Addison has to win on his routes when he’s single-covered, and Hockenson didn’t play last time against the Rams and needs to make his presence felt.
Aaron Jones had two 100-yard rushing games for the Packers in last year’s playoffs (with three TDs in the wildcard round win at Dallas), so he’s a big-game player. He was held to 58 yards rushing on 19 carries (3.1 yard average) in the October meeting with the Rams. He has to be more effective, and Cam Akers has been playing well lately but had no carries in the last game, so he should have a bigger role this time to keep Jones fresh.
Of course, the offensive line has to be better against a defense that gave up 42 points to Buffalo (in a 44-42 Week 14 win for the Rams) but allowed only 24 points total over the next three games (against the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals).
The Rams’ defense ranked 26th overall and middle of the pack in takeaways so they can be handled as the Bills did. But the Vikings’ offense has to bring its A-game.
3. Vikings O-line is a big key: along with stopping the run, the Rams’ defense sacked Darnold three times and had six hits on him. The L.A. front seven is young and talented, with OLB Jared Verse (4.5 sacks) the likely Defensive Rookie of the Year and three other fine pass rushers to test the Vikings O-line—DEs Braden Fiske (8.5 sacks) and Kobie Turner (8 sacks) and OLB Byron Young (7.5 sacks).
Cam Robinson must play much better than Quessenberry did in the Week 8 loss when he allowed two sacks and several pressures. Josh Oliver, Jones, and C.J. Ham, along with the O-linemen, have to pick up the blitzes that surely will be coming after the Lions were so successful blitzing 56% of the snaps last week.
4. Avoid the pre-snap penalties and holding calls that would put the offense in bad down-and-distance situations.
5. Win the turnover battle: A key in any game and even more in pressure-packed playoff games with the season on the line and where teams can panic and make mistakes if they fall behind. The Vikings finished the regular season plus 12, leading the league in takeaways and interceptions. The Rams were plus 6 and had the fourth fewest giveaways, with Stafford throwing only eight interceptions.
6. Stop the run: Kyren Williams ranked seventh in the league with 1,299 rushing yards, and the Rams will want to be balanced offensively. Williams was a big factor last time with 23 carries for 97 yard,s along with a 5-yard TD reception. He helped the Rams win time of possession 33:37-26:23. His backup, Blake Corum, is out with a fractured forearm.
7. Pressure Stafford a lot more than last time. The 36-year-old Stafford was far too comfortable in the last meeting, and perhaps the Vikings’ pass rushers tired quickly on a short week. The Vikings had no sacks and only two quarterback hits on Stafford, who threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns with one pick.
The Rams allowed the sixth-fewest sacks (31), and Stafford was only picked off eight times, so it will be a challenge to disrupt him for the Vikings D that had 49 sacks to rank fourth and led the league in takeaways (33) and interceptions (24). However, Pro Bowlers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel and their cohorts on defense must put consistent heat on Stafford.
8. Cover Nacua and Kupp better than last time: Flores can game plan against Nacua this time after he was not expected to play in Week 8 and hurt the Vikings with seven catches for 106 yards. He was very effective in wide receiver screens.
Kupp caught five passes for 55 yards. Demarcus Robinson was also a big factor with two TD receptions, including the game-winner. Stephon Gilmore has been a great addition but he did not play well last time. Gilmore, Pro Bowler Byron Murphy (who intercepted Stafford that night), and Shaq Griffin must cover well and get help from Harrison Smith and Cam Bynum, while Josh Metellus wreaks havoc as a blitzer and run-stopper who can help in coverage as long as he’s not singled up on a WR.
9. Win the special teams battle: Will Reichard must be better than he’s been the last two weeks with three missed field goals and the costly kickoff out of bounds late in the first half at Detroit that cost the team three points. Rams kicker Joshua Karty missed five field goals (including four inside 50) and four extra points so the Vikings have an edge if Reichard kicks as he did in the first half of the season (and he’s been in plenty of big games in college at Alabama including national championship games).
The Rams are in the middle of the pack in the return game, while the Vikings rank at the bottom of the league. A big return or a timely blocked kick is huge in playoff games.
Prediction: The 2024 season has already been an unexpected success, but a loss in the first round of the playoffs would clearly be a downer for the team, for coach Kevin O’Connell if he loses his second playoff game (after the 2022 home loss to the Giants), and for Sam Darnold (despite his excellent overall season) if he has another sub-par game after the Detroit fiasco.
If the Vikings can win in L.A. over a good Rams team led by a Super Bowl-winning coach in Sean McVay and a quarterback in Stafford, then whatever happens after that is gravy as long as the Vikings are competitive in the remaining playoff games.
The crowd noise won’t be nearly the factor it was in Detroit. When the Vikings and Rams played in Week 8 at SoFi Stadium, there were plenty of Vikings fans there, and Rams fans aren’t overly boisterous anyway, and it’s questionable how many will travel to Phoenix. It will probably be more of a pro-Vikings crowd.
The presence of Hockenson and Cashman should make a big difference. Robinson should be much better than Quessenberry last time. If Darnold can play the way he did in the seven games before Detroit (with 18 TD passes and only two interceptions), if Jefferson and Addison are big-play guys, and if Aaron Jones has a better game this time (with help from Cam Akers) and if the Vikings can stop the run and get more pressure on Stafford this time, I think the Vikings will win. That’s what I expect to happen.
I predict the Vikings will win a close game, 27-24, on a walk-off field goal by Reichard.
Picking the five other wild card round games:
Saturday 3:30 PM — Chargers at Texans — Houston’s offense ranks 19th in scoring as C.J. Stroud has been less effective this season due to season-ending injuries to WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell and his protection has been spotty. The Texans offense ranks 19th in scoring and they’re facing the No. 1 scoring defense. Justin Herbert will have a bounce-back game from his last playoff game — the 2022 collapse in Jacksonville.
Saturday 7:00 PM — Steelers at Ravens — these AFC North rivals split their regular season games, but the Ravens won by 17 in Baltimore three weeks ago, and Pittsburgh has lost four straight. Lamar Jackson will improve on his 2-4 postseason record with a victory and then head to an exciting divisional round matchup in Buffalo.
Sunday Noon — Broncos at Bills — Buffalo and Josh Allen roll to an easy win over rookie QB Bo Nix and Denver.
Sunday 3:30 PM — Packers at Eagles — both QBs are coming off injuries, an elbow for Jordan Love and a concussion for Jalen Hurts (that could limit his running, an important element in his game). The loss of Christian Watson as a deep threat hurts Green Bay, but I think this is a possible upset with the pressure on the second-seeded Eagles. The Pack walloped Dallas as a seven-seed at two-seed last year. I’m picking the Eagles (who beat the Pack 34-29 in the season opener in Brazil), but an upset here wouldn’t surprise me.
Sunday 7:00 PM — Commanders at Buccaneers — Jayden Daniels has proven to be clutch this season, but Baker Mayfield has had his best season. I’m going with the Bucs at home, where they knocked off the Eagles in last year’s wildcard round.
VIKINGS BEST SCENARIO — Beat the Rams, Packers upset Eagles, and Commanders beat Bucs, setting up Green Bay at Detroit and Washington at Minnesota in the divisional round.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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