On to Wildcard Game in L.A. after Darnold’s Costly Debacle
During the first three quarters of Sunday night’s game in Detroit, the Vikings looked like they would take control. The defense stopped the Lions’ No. 1 offense on five of their first seven drives, including Ivan Pace’s interception returned to the Detroit 7 and a fourth-down stop that led to a field goal and a 7-6 deficit.
On to Wildcard Game in L.A. after Darnold’s Costly Debacle
However, the Vikings’ failure to capitalize on touchdowns in four red zone opportunities in the first three quarters (they scored only two field goals) — mainly due to Sam Darnold’s misfires — cost them the NFC North and the No. 1 seed.
The 31-9 final score did not indicate how the game could’ve turned in the Vikings’ favor if the offense had taken advantage of their opportunities. It was a one-point game late in the third quarter when superstar back Jahmyr Gibbs’ second of four TDs gave the Lions a 17-9 lead. On the ensuing series, T.J. Hockenson was held with no call by Alex Anzalone on 3rd-and-4, and Will Reichard missed a 51-yard field goal.
Still, down by eight points, Andrew Van Ginkel couldn’t haul in a likely third Pick-6 of the season for him when he read a screen. The Lions then drove to a touchdown on a 13-yard run by Gibbs, and the game was basically over at 24-9 when the next Vikings series ended on a sack (part of a 48.9% pressure rate with the Lions blitzing on 56% of Darnold’s dropbacks.
The disappointing loss makes the Vikings the first 14-win wild card team in NFL history (one more than my 1999 Tennessee Titans, who wound up in the Super Bowl but with only three divisions in each conference, we were the four seed and hosted and defeated fifth-seeded Buffalo in the Wildcard round before winning in Indianapolis and Jacksonville and falling just short in the Super Bowl.
The Vikings have the challenge of opening the postseason in L.A. against the 10-7 Rams. The Rams had won five straight games before resting most of their starters in the five-point loss to Seattle (since they had already clinched the NFC West). It’s a rematch of the Week 8 game in L.A., a short week. That TNF game was won 30-20 by the Rams, with the controversial no-facemask call on a late end zone sack/safety on Darnold killing the Vikings’ last drive.
The Lions’ loss was costly, ending the Vikings’ nine-game winning streak and dropping them to the fifth see. They lost homefield advantage in at least the wild card round. But the playoffs are front and center now, so the Vikings must quickly move on from the Detroit game and prepare for a solid Rams team led by a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, Matthew Stafford.
And as they did after Darnold threw three interceptions in Jacksonville in Week 10, Kevin O’Connell and QB coach Josh McCown must get Darnold back to playing as well as he did in the seven games after Jacksonville with 18 TD passes and only two picks and in six of those seven games, he had a passer rating of 107.0 or better.
Here are my other reactions to the Vikings loss in Detroit:
1. Darnold entered the game with a league-best 139.6 passer rating when blitzed, which didn’t dissuade Lions DC Aaron Glenn from blitzing on 56% of Darnold’s dropbacks, the highest percentage he has faced in his career.
Darnold obviously did not handle the blitz well in this game with far too many overthrows, including a wide-open Justin Jefferson in the end zone on the series after Pace’s second-quarter pick (and right after Jefferson couldn’t corral a high pass while staying in-bounds at the back line of the end zone).
This mid-second quarter sequence was very costly to the Vikings’ chances to take control of the game, starting with the Vikings being stopped on 4th-and-Goal from the Detroit 3, Goff not getting hit with a safety on intentional grounding in the end zone as he should’ve been (costing the Vikings two points and the ball), Pace’s interception and failing to convert again in the redzone and settling for a field goal.
The Vikings have been a good redzone team all season. If they come away from those three series with 16 points and a nine-point lead, it’s a totally different game. Instead, they emerged still down 7-3.
2. Blaming the officiating always is a fruitless exercise, but the officials hurt the Vikings with the no-grounding call on Goff (yet they called one on Darnold later) and too few holding or pass interference calls on the Lions defenders playing a lot of physical, man-to-man coverage. Jefferson should have gotten a call on a hold in the end zone on the second-quarter 4th-and-Goal from the 3 play, and Hockenson was clearly interfered with by Alex Anzalone on 3rd-and-4 from the Detroit 34 late in the third quarter, forcing a 51-yard field goal try by Will Reichard that he missed (and the Vikings trailed 17-9 at that point).
3. What was up with the lack of production for Hockenson and Jordan Addison? Hockenson had two catches for nine yards on eight targets, and Addison had only one catch for 0 yards. In the previous four games, Hockenson had 16 catches for 192 yards, and Addison had 26 receptions for 300 yards and five TDs. Was the Lions’ coverage that good, or was Darnold not accurate enough, or did the players not win on their routes (or most likely a combination of those factors)? The Vikings definitely need more production from them in the playoffs.
4. I think the Vikings should’ve run it more, especially with Darnold struggling with accuracy (18 of 41 for 44%). They rushed only 19 times for 120 yards and a 6.3 average (including a 58-yarder by Cam Akers on the opening drive of the third quarter that wound up in a fourth-down stop from the Detroit 2 when the Vikings threw on the last three plays). Aaron Jones averaged 4.5 yards per carry but only ran it 10 times.
5. The Vikings’ No. 2 ranked run D was good until late in the game when it was out of reach. The super quick Pro Bowler Gibbs was held to one yard on his first six carries with two tackles-for-loss before breaking loose for a 25-yard first-quarter TD run. He had 69 of his 139 rushing yards on the Lions’ last TD drive when they extended the lead from 15 to 22 points. The Vikings still should have held him down late, but the game was not going well by then.
6. If the two teams meet again in the playoffs (a distinct possibility), the Vikings’ defense can feel good about doing a decent job against Goff, who they held to an 80.7 passer rating, intercepted twice, sacked twice, had 10 QB hits on him and should’ve had a safety. The defense played well enough to win if the offense and Darnold had played well and if Reichard was better.
It’s rare to win the turnover battle (2-0) but lose a big game, as the Vikings just did. But going 0 for 3 on fourth down vs. stopping the Lions once on fourth down (out of three tries, not counting the final drive when the Lions were running out the clock) essentially equaled the turnover ratio at three for each team.
7. Reichard’s missed field goal was his third in the last two games, not a good sign heading into the pressure-packed playoffs. He also had a terrible kickoff that he duck-hooked out of bounds with 20 seconds left in the first half after he had just made a 31-yard field goal to cut the lead to 7-6. It gave Detroit the ball at their 40, and a couple of completions set up a 48-yard Jake Bates field goal to restore the lead to four points at the half. Reichard must get back to his solid kicking in L.A. on Monday night.
8. That makes five straight losses to the Lions for the Vikings. There’s a decent chance the two teams could meet in the divisional playoff round if the Vikings beat the Rams, along with No. 2 seed Philly beating No. 7 Green Bay and No. 3 Tampa Bay beating No. 6 Washington with the Eagles and Bucs playing at home this weekend.
Lions coach Dan Campbell said as much in his postgame handshake with O’Connell, telling him, “See you in two weeks.” If that’s the case, Darnold will have to play much better on the big stage of the playoffs. He will have to handle the blitz along with the offensive line and other pass protectors, giving Darnold more time to throw. He must also be more accurate than he was in Detroit.
Around the NFL Observations in Week 18 & a look ahead to Wild Card Weekend:
1. I’d call it an even game, but the Vikings are a 1 ½ point early favorite against the Rams in the final game of Wild Card Weekend on Monday night. The good news is that the Vikings came out of the Lions game without any new injuries, and O’Connell said Edge/OLB Pat Jones (knee) may be able to play in the Rams game.
In games of consequence in Week 18: the Ravens won the AFC North ahead of the Steelers with their win over the Browns. The Bucs won the NFC South with their come-from-behind win over the Saints. And the Broncos earned the last AFC wild card with a shutout of the Chiefs, who were resting their starters (to the chagrin of the Bengals, who would’ve gotten the last wild card if the Chiefs had won, but K.C. is happy not to see Joe Burrow in the playoffs with his past success against the Chiefs.
Kansas City’s starters like Patrick Mahomes will have another week off as the AFC’s top seed with the first-round bye before they begin their quest to become the first Super Bowl three-peat winner.
2. Washington’s win in Dallas took them to 12-5, the largest win jump in the league this season (up eight from 4-13), one more than the Vikings’ gain of seven wins (from 7-10 to 14-3). Cleveland and San Francisco finish as the most disappointing teams, with drops of eight wins for the Browns (11-6 to 3-14) and six wins for the Niners (12-5 to 6-11).
I’ll preview the Vikings-Rams playoff game on Friday and make my picks for the other five games next weekend. Suffice it to say the stakes are high for the Vikings to, in effect, validate their 14-win season with at least one playoff win and not go one-and-done as they did two years ago with the first-round loss at home to the Giants.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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