Keys to Vikings Beating Lions in Biggest Regular Season Game in Team History
The hype is huge for this Sunday’s battle between the Vikings and Lions in the Lions’ den at Detroit. In this case, it’s apropos. This is simply the biggest regular-season game in Vikings history.
Yes, the Vikings beat the Packers in Green Bay for the division title in the 2015 season finale, but that was to finish 11-5 and earn the third seed. This is the first time two teams with 14 wins in NFL history have met in a regular season game. The NFC North title, the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a first-round bye and homefield advantage through the NFC playoffs — it’s all on the line before a full house at Ford Field and a prime-time TV audience on NBC in what’s being correctly promoted as the NFL’s game of the year heading into the playoffs.
Keys to Vikings Beating Lions in Biggest Regular Season Game in Team History
For the Vikings and Lions and both teams’ Super Bowl dreams, there’s a major difference between having next week off before hosting a divisional playoff game vs. having to travel for a challenging wild card round game against either the Los Angeles Rams (who beat the Vikings in Week 8 in L.A. and have won their last five games) or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if they beat the 3-13 Panthers in Tampa. The Bucs have won five of their last six games. Either the Rams’ Matthew Stafford or the Bucs’ Baker Mayfield, with their supporting casts, could mean one-and-done for the Vikings or Lions.
Yes, it’s a travesty that a 14-win wild card team would have to face the rough uphill climb as a five-seed, most likely winning three road games to reach the Super Bowl in New Orleans on February 9. The NFL should change the playoff seeding to reward teams with better records, earning them the right to host playoff games.
Fourteen wins for a wild card team will set a new record. The previous high was 13 wins by my 1999 Tennessee Titans, who went 13-3. There were only three divisions, then so as the No. 4 seed behind the three division champs, we at least had our first playoff game at home (our famous Music City Miracle win over Buffalo). We then won the AFC title with road wins at No. 2 seed Indianapolis and No. 1 Jacksonville before losing to the Rams on the last play of the Super Bowl.
The Lions have won four straight over the Vikings. This Sunday’s epic game is a rematch of Detroit’s 31-29 win at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 7, in which the Vikings had a good opportunity to put it away if Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson had connected on a third down play with three minutes remaining before Jared Goff led the Lions on a late drive to set up Jake Bates’ 44-yard game-winner.
It’s also a matchup of two teams, with a combined 13 Pro Bowl selections announced Thursday. This is much-deserved recognition for a tremendous Vikings season. Even though an actual Pro Bowl game is no longer played (it has been replaced by a skills competition and a flag football game), it’s still an important individual honor, with the top teams landing the most spots.
Sam Darnold, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Byron Murphy all had outstanding seasons and earned their first Pro Bowl selections. It’s the third time for Andrew DePaola and the fourth for Justin Jefferson. It’s a tribute to their production and Brian Flores’ defense, which leads the league in takeaways, that Greenard and Van Ginkel were selected as Edge/OLB starters along with Murphy, Jefferson, and DePaola. Darnold made it as a backup to starter Jared Goff.
Back to the big game:
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Lions for their 10th straight win and winning the North and the top seed:
1. Win the rushing battle: it’s the Vikings’ No. 2-ranked run defense against the Lions’ No. 6 rushing attack. The teams were fairly even last time (144-139 yards in favor of Detroit). Aaron Jones had a fine game with 93 rushing yards on 14 carries (6.6 average with a 34-yard TD run), but he was outdone by the Pro Bowler Jahmyr Gibbs (15 carries, 116 yards, 7.7 average, two TDs) with his offensive line that is among the league’s best units.
After shaky games against Arizona and Atlanta with some improvement against Chicago, the Vikings run D was better in Seattle (only 59 yards allowed) and did a good job against Josh Jacobs, holding him to 69 rushing yards in last week’s victory over the Packers. It definitely helped to have Harrison Smith and Ivan Pace back in the lineup.
2. Win the turnover battle to slow down the Lions’ second-ranked offense. The Vikings are +10, and the Lions are +11. Last time, the turnovers were even at one each.
3. Pressure Goff: he’s completing 71.7% of his passes this season(second-best in the league) and was 22 of 25 for 280 yards, two TDs, and no picks in the October game. The Vikings sacked him four times (including two by Van Ginkel and one by Greenard), and the Vikings had seven quarterback hits. They need to disrupt him more in this game and force more errant throws and interceptions. But Goff is smart and not easy to beat with the blitz.
4. Cover the Lions’ dangerous quartet of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield. St. Brown had a big game last time with eight catches for 112 yards, including a 35-yard TD pass. Williams and LaPorta were held to one catch each. Gibbs had four catches for 44 yards, so he was a dual-threat problem who must be better contained. And the Vikings D has to be ready for anything, such as the hook and ladder play the Lions scored on against San Fran. Plus, they have to be good on fourth-down plays, which the Lions run as much or more than any team.
5. Protect Darnold against DC Aaron Glenn’s blitzes, which the Lions will employ due to their injury-depleted defensive line. Last time, the Lions also had four sacks, three of which were by blitzing linebackers, including on the game’s final play when Darnold was trying to throw a Hail Mary.
With no Aidan Hutchinson or Alim McNeill—the Lions’ two best pass rushers on injured reserve—it definitely helps the Vikings offense. Former Viking Za’Darius Smith is still a threat as a pass rusher (five sacks this season but none in the last three games).
6. Darnold, Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor stay hot against a suspect group of corners: Darnold has 18 TD passes and only two interceptions in the last seven games. Like Goff, he was very efficient — 22 of 27 for 259 yards, one TD, and one pick, so his passer rating of 103.5 that day was not as good as Goff’s 140.0.
Jefferson has had several big games against the Lions, including seven receptions for 81 yards and one touchdown last time. Nailor caught four passes for 76 yards, and Addison had three catches for 66 yards, but he’s been on a tear lately, with 26 receptions for 300 yards and five touchdowns over the last four games.
The Lions’ best corner — Carlton Davis — is out with a fractured jaw, and the 49ers’ Brock Purdy and Josh Dobbs threw for 412 yards and three TDs against the Lions last Monday night. So Detroit’s corners—rookie Terrion Arnold, Kindle Vildor, and Amik Robertson — should be easy pickings for the Vikings’ talented wideouts.
But Darnold must be wary of two ball-hawking safeties. Kerby Joseph leads the league with nine picks (two against the Niners on Monday night). He was snubbed for the Pro Bowl, but Brian Branch made it. He has four interceptions (including one in the earlier game against the Vikings) and 15 passes defensed along with 103 tackles.
For the 49ers to gain 475 yards and score 34 points without Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, or Trent Williams shows the Lions’ D is shaky. The problem is Detroit’s No. 1 scoring offense (33.3 points per game) is so good that a team must score a lot of points to beat them as Buffalo did three weeks ago in a 48-42 win in which Goff threw for 494 yards. Josh Allen had four TDs in that game (two passing and two rushing and 432 total yards passing and rushing).
7. Hockenson burn his former team, especially Joseph, who injured Hockenson on the low hit/cheap shot last December. Hockenson missed the earlier game this season during his ACL recovery. He has played well in his previous games against the Lions. He had four catches for 58 yards in last year’s home game before the injury. In 2022, he had eight receptions for 77 yards in his return to Detroit.
The Lions’ secondary had trouble covering tight end George Kittle on Monday night (eight catches, 112 yards), so that bodes well for Hockenson. Just be on the lookout for cheap shots from Joseph, T.J.
8. On special teams, Will Reichard must be better than he was against the Packers when he missed two field goals. Reichard and Ryan Wright were terrific in Seattle’s difficult weather and field conditions and must perform like that on Sunday night. Lions kicker Jake Bates is having a solid season and kicked the 44-yard game-winner in the last meeting.
Kalif Raymond is a dangerous punt returner (and caught a TD pass in the last game with the Vikings). He’s been out with a foot injury for the past several weeks but is on track to return this week and must be contained.
Prediction: The two teams are very evenly matched, and both will be highly motivated, with playoff positioning at stake. The Vikings are the healthier team and have the advantage of the Lions playing on a short week. The Lions have a slight edge on offense, and the Vikings are clearly better on defense, but can they slow down such a prolific attack? The Vikings’ offense will have to match the Lions’ scores.
My prediction is 38-34 Detroit. I hope I’m wrong. The Vikings certainly are capable of winning this huge game, but considering Detroit’s four straight wins over the Vikings, I just can’t pick the Purple in what is sure to be a high-scoring game.
Around the NFL in Week 18:
1. Two other division titles will be decided, but both the Ravens and Bucs are at home against last-place teams in the Browns and Panthers, so I expect Baltimore to win the AFC North over Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay to win the NFC South over Atlanta.
The only other open playoff spot is the last AFC seed, which Denver should claim with a home win over Kansas City as the Chiefs are resting Patrick Mahomes and most of their starters.
2. I didn’t like seeing Sean McVay saying Matthew Stafford will sit this week with the chance to clinch the No. 3 seed vs. No. 4 if the Rams lose and the Bucs win. McVay is not trying overly hard to avoid a matchup with the Vikings (who the Rams beat in Week 8 on a short week in L.A.) or the Lions (who beat them in overtime in Week 1 in Detroit). A Rams win would clinch the third seed and a probable visit from Washington if the Commanders handle the Cowboys.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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