Injured Vikings Face Virtual Must-Win vs. Browns
The Vikings are in the second week of their international swing and will face Cleveland in London with a significant advantage, having adjusted to the time change for one more week than the Browns, who arrived late this week.
The Vikings face a virtual must-win against the Browns in London with injuries piling up and a brutal schedule looming. Can Minnesota regroup overseas?
Can the Vikings parlay such an edge into a much-needed victory on Sunday? Must-win is an overused term in sports but I believe it’s accurate to call this an early season must-win after the loss to the Steelers in Dublin and with the difficult schedule that lies ahead after next week’s bye — hosting the defending Super Bowl champs/unbeaten Eagles followed by a short week Thursday night game at the AFC West leading Chargers, then at hot Detroit followed by home to the Ravens who may have their act together by then and do have Lamar Jackson at the helm.
There’s nothing easy upcoming, so I would call it mandatory to get a win over the 1-3 Browns, who are giving rookie third-rounder Dillon Gabriel his first start to try and jump-start the offense. Defense is rarely the problem, as Cleveland has the league’s No. 1 defense, led by All-Pro DE Myles Garrett. However, they did give up 27 points (plus a punt return TD) in last week’s 34-10 drubbing by the Lions in Detroit.
Room for Error Shrinks in London for Vikings
The Vikings’ defense should be able to control Cleveland’s offense if they play the run better and then pressure Gabriel. Carson Wentz and the Vikings’ offense will likely be missing three starters on the offensive line — Brian O’Neill, Ryan Kelly, and Donovan Jackson — with backup center Michael Jurgens also possibly out. If he is out, Blake Brandel, who has never played center in an NFL game, would replace him. Can this makeshift O-line help move the ball on that tough Browns D?
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Browns to reach 3-2 at the bye
1. Take advantage of the extra time adjusting to the time change overseas: perhaps this will show up in the fourth quarter if the Browns are a bit jag-lagged.
2. Win the turnover battle: after winning it 5-0 in the romp over the Bengals, the Vikings lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Steelers, with two picks coming on tipped balls. Cleveland’s turnover ratio is minus 6, second-worst in the league with an NFL-high eight giveaways against only two takeaways (third-fewest). Joe Flacco’s six interceptions cost him his starting job, so look for the Browns to try to run the ball to take some pressure off Gabriel.
The Vikings are even on turnovers with seven takeaways (fourth-most) and seven giveaways (fifth-worst).
3. Stop the run—Cleveland ranks No. 30, but rookie second-rounder Quinshon Judkins ran for 82 yards and had four catches for 33 yards last week in the loss at Detroit, so he is a threat. The Browns know that Atlanta and Pittsburgh had success on the ground against the Vikings and will try to follow that path with a rookie starting QB.
4. Brian Flores continue his mastery of rookie QBs: Flores has a 5-0 record as Vikings DC against rookie QBs. He must have his defenders protect against the quick passing game the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers utilized, confuse and rattle Gabriel with blitzes and fake blitzes and force takeaways including some more splash plays on defense by corner Isaiah Rodgers who followed up his two TD, two forced fumble game against the Bengals with a blocked field goal to keep the Steelers ahead by 11 points late in the first half instead of 14.
5. Dallas Turner make a bigger impact with Andrew Van Ginkel still expected to be out: Turner has 13 tackles, one sack and one tackle-for-loss in extended duty through four games. More production than that is expected from the 2024 first-round pick, who must set the edge against the run game and pressure the QB. He also has to avoid penalties such as the roughing call he took in the fourth quarter last week.
6. Run the ball to balance the offense for Wentz: the Browns have the No. 1 run D, but the Vikings must try to run it with Jordan Mason and a heavier dose of Josh Oliver blocking on the edge (he must play more than the 28% of the snaps he had last week). Fullback C.J. Ham is practicing fully and eligible to come off IR from his knee injury. If he’s activated, he can also help the run game, pass protection, and on special teams.
7. Pass protect and help the tackles against a game-wrecker in Garrett: again, Oliver can be a key in double-teaming Garrett, so T.J. Hockenson can get out on routes and not have to pass protect as often.
8. Quick passing and take shots to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, and Hockenson if and when possible: Jefferson and Hockenson have been more involved in the last two games than they were in the first two games. Wentz has done a better job than McCarthy in getting the ball to Hockenson, especially. The Vikings offense also needs to tap into passes out of the backfield to Zavier Scott, who had six receptions for 43 yards and one TD on a terrific back of the end zone catch last Sunday.
9. Be better on third down: the Vikings converted only 4 of 14 last week (they were 2 of 3 on fourth downs).
10. Limit the penalties: 13 for 105 yards vs. Cincy. Then eight for 82 yards against the Steelers, including several that killed drives or hurt field position. The Vikings are the second-most penalized team in the league. That has to change, beginning this week.
10. Big plays on special teams: the Browns gave up a 65-yard punt return TD to the Lions’ Kalif Raymond last week. Myles Price had a 54-yard kickoff return nullified by a holding penalty on Tavierre Thomas in the Steeler game. Perhaps this is the week Price makes a big return that sticks.
Will Reichard has made all 16 of his kicks this season (eight field goals and eight PATs). He is having a better season than Browns kicker Andre Szmyt (5 of 7 on field goals and 5 of 6 on PATs).
Prediction
I expect a low-scoring game between two teams that have been offensively challenged to varying degrees lately — the Vikings, mostly due to injuries to five starters, and the Browns, with their shaky quarterback situation.
And both teams have top 10 defenses that are playing well for the most part, although the Vikings have been inconsistent stopping the run and the Browns were handled by the Lions in the 34-10 loss last week, with no sacks of Jared Goff (they did hold him to 168 passing yards, but he threw two TD passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown). Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 91 yards and a TD for Detroit.
It was much better for the Browns’ defense in Week 3, when they held the Packers to 10 points in a 13-10 upset win. The defense blocked the Packers’ game-winning field goal attempt, which led to Szmyt’s 55-yard game-winner.
I predict the Vikings will play it very conservatively on offense and rely on their defense to stop the run, forcing Gabriel into two interceptions in a 20-17 Vikings win.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 5
1. In the NFC North, Detroit is rolling with three straight wins and should win on the road over the Bengals, who are reeling without Joe Burrow after two straight blowout losses at Minnesota and Denver. The Packers (2-1-1) and Bears (2-2) are on their bye weeks.
2. NFC West games — After the 49ers and Rams battled on Thursday night, Seattle and Sam Darnold will try to tie for the division lead at 4-1 in a big game at home against 3-1 Tampa Bay. Darnold is the league’s sixth-ranked QB with a 106.9 passer rating (70% completion rate, five TDs, two interceptions).
3. The two remaining unbeaten teams are at home this week — Philly hosts 2-2 Denver, and in the Sunday night game, Buffalo has a divisional matchup with 2-2 New England. I think the Eagles and Bills will improve to 5-0. Then the Eagles are at the Giants on Thursday night and should be 6-0 when they face the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on October 19 (following the Vikings’ bye week).
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