How the Vikings Can Beat the Bengals
What a difference a week makes in the NFL. The Vikings were feeling good after their come-from-behind win in Chicago on opening night.
There were good vibes for J.J. McCarthy among the team and fan base with his three TD fourth quarter, but it came crashing down as the injury-riddled Vikings fell to Atlanta on Sunday night with only six points on offense and three McCarthy turnovers, plus a sprained ankle that has knocked McCarthy out for this Sunday.
The Vikings face the Bengals in Week 3, and a win will hinge on execution in key areas. Here’s how Minnesota can attack Cincinnati’s weaknesses and secure victory.
Carson Wentz will be the starter for the 1-1 Vikings against the 2-0 Bengals. The Vikings need a home win before they head overseas for two weeks, facing Pittsburgh in Dublin and Cleveland in London. This is an important stretch to stack some wins before a difficult four-game stretch — home vs. Philadelphia, at the hot L.A. Chargers on a Thursday night, at Detroit, and home against Baltimore.
Jeff Diamond on Vikings vs. Bengals | Wentz v. Browning
The Vikings have a history of success with backup QBs taking over for injured starters. Bob Lee in 1977 (for Fran Tarkenton), Wade Wilson in 1987 (for Tommy Kramer), Randall Cunningham in 1998 (replacing Brad Johnson), and Case Keenum in 2017 (for Sam Bradford) all led Vikings teams to the NFC title game.
We’ll have to see how many games Wentz starts in place of McCarthy, who must make quicker decisions and protect the ball when he returns to the lineup. The Vikings also must get many other injured players back after eight starters were out against Atlanta. Aaron Jones is the latest to hit injured reserve, so Jordan Mason will take on a bigger role with Zavier Scott and Cam Akers as backups.
The Bengals are fortunate to be unbeaten, as they escaped against suspect teams. They won the opener 17-16 in Cleveland with only 141 yards of total offense. They needed a Jake Browning QB sneak with 18 seconds left to beat Jacksonville last Sunday in Cincinnati. Browning had to step in when star QB Joe Burrow suffered a toe injury that required surgery, putting him on IR for several months.
Browning went 4-3 as the starter in 2023 when Burrow was out with a wrist injury. One of those wins was 27-24 over the Vikings in overtime at Cincinnati. In that game, Browning threw for 324 yards, two TDs, and one interception. He threw a game-tying TD pass to Tee Higgins to force OT on a play, Higgins made a lunge backwards past Akayleb Evans into the end zone.
Browning spent his first two seasons on the Vikings practice squad after signing as an undrafted free agent before heading to Cincy. He’s well aware of the Vikings crowd noise as a major factor for opposing teams to overcome.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Bengals
1. Get as many injured players as possible back: 12 players were on the Vikings’ Wednesday injury report. We know McCarthy won’t play this week, but it’s uncertain who may return from among starters Christian Darrisaw, Ryan Kelly, Harrison Smith, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Jeff Okudah.
If Darrisaw is not ready to return and his backup, Justin Skule, can’t go with a concussion, that spells big trouble for Walter Rouse or Blake Brandel at left tackle with 2024 NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson rushing from the right end. Josh Oliver is dealing with an ankle issue, but he is needed to chip on Hendrickson and help in the run game.
If Van Ginkel is out, Dallas Turner must play well. He had a sack last week, but didn’t hold the edge a couple of times in run defense, as well as the Pro Bowler Van Ginkel can do. The Vikings’ pass rush also needs a healthy Jonathan Greenard, who was limited in practice on Wednesday with an oblique injury (but he did return to full practice on Thursday).
2. Run the ball to balance the offense for Wentz: there’s no Aaron Jones for the next four weeks, which puts more pressure on Jordan Mason, who had a good opener in Chicago but was shut down by the Falcons’ underrated defense (nine carries for 30 yards, 3.3 average). Preseason star Zavier Scott is expected to be the No. 2 back, and Cam Akers is back on the practice squad.
Having Darrisaw and Kelly back would make a big difference up front. Jacksonville was effective in running the ball against the Bengals last week with 139 yards. A good day for Mason, and perhaps with some Scott or Akers carries, it will help Wentz a lot in the play-action game.
And Coach O’Connell — if the Vikings have 1st-and-Goal at the 2 again this week, how about calling a Mason run instead of a pass play since Mason was signed in part to be an effective short yardage power back?
3. Pass protect and help the left tackle against Trey Hendrickson: Cincinnati is not a great pass-rushing team, with only three sacks over the first two weeks. See No. 1 above on the challenge Hendrickson brings. It will help Wentz if O’Connell calls more quick passes to Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, and Wentz gets the ball out quicker than McCarthy did the first two weeks.
The Vikings need to keep Wentz upright and healthy with rookie Max Brosmer as the No. 2 this week. Brosmer played well in the preseason, but the regular season is totally different. Newly signed Desmond Ridder will be the No. 3 emergency QB.
4. Get Jefferson and Hockenson much more involved: these two Pro Bowlers must be targeted more often than in the first two games.
Jefferson has only 13 targets with seven catches for 125 yards (one TD). By contrast, Jefferson’s fellow first-team All-Pro WR from last season and former LSU teammate — Ja’Marr Chase — has been targeted 21 times (16 catches, 191 yards, one TD). Jefferson averaged nine targets, six catches, and 90 receiving yards per game last year in the regular season.
Hockenson was expected to be targeted much more on short and intermediate throws from McCarthy. He has only seven targets over two games with four receptions for 27 yards. Over the prior two seasons, he averaged 7.5 targets, 5.4 catches, and 57 receiving yards per game. His involvement has to change for the offense to play as expected.
5. Stop the run and pressure Browning into turnovers: through two games, the Bengals rank last in rushing yards with starting back Chase Brown off to a dismal start (2.4 yards per carry). After seeing the Falcons run for 218 yards against the Vikings’ D, which ranked second against the rush last year, the Bengals will try to run it. But the Vikings should stop them, which sets up the passing game for Cincy as the critical area to be contained.
The Vikings’ pass rushers must rattle Browning into turnovers, which could happen after he threw three picks last week. But if the Vikings’ defense tires late and the game is close, that will favor the Bengals’ great receiving duo of Chase and Tee Higgins, along with fine tight ends in Noah Fant and Mike Gesicki, against the Vikings’ secondary.
Browning comes into the game with confidence after beating the Vikings in 2023 and leading the late 92-yard drive to defeat the Jaguars last week. He completed 9 of 13 passes for 65 yards on that drive and scored the game-winner on a QB sneak.
6. Win the turnover battle: the Vikings lost it 4-1 against the Falcons. The Vikings led the league in takeaways last year (33), but have only two over the first two games. They have five giveaways, mostly due to McCarthy’s three interceptions and one lost fumble. Cincinnati is plus 1 vs. the Vikings minus 3 in turnover ratio entering the game. It’s an obvious key as usual in NFL games.
7. Special teams play well: it was mostly positive in Chicago, but not as good against Atlanta, with poor blocking on kickoffs and a muffed punt lost late in the game by Myles Price. The Bengals have a good punt returner in Charlie Jones.
Both teams have fine kickers — Will Reichard (4 for 4 on field goals) and Evan McPherson (2 for 2 on field goals and he beat the Vikings with overtime kicks of 29 yards in 2023 and 33 yards in 2021 which are the last two meetings between the teams, both in Cincinnati…this is the first meeting in Minnesota since 2017 when the Vikings won 34-7).
8. Limit the penalties and home crowd make it tough on Browning and the Bengals offense: the Vikings have 16 penalties in the two games, which is far too many, including eight for 50 yards at home last Sunday. The Vikings must cut down on the holding penalties, and Jalen Redmond can’t jump offsides on 4th-and-1 (which basically ended the Atlanta game).
9. The Vikings need a quicker start than the first two games to get the home crowd amped up. Browning says he knows what to expect from the noise factor after beginning his career as a Vikings practice squad QB, but that’s easier said than done. The loud crowd forced four false starts by the Falcons, and more of that is needed to disrupt the Bengals’ offense.
Prediction
The Vikings have never lost at home to the Bengals, but the deck is stacked against them this week with so many injuries and a starting QB who has only been here three weeks. With Kirk Cousins out, Josh Dobbs got it done with O’Connell in his ear in his first start after a recent arrival two years ago, but there weren’t as many other injuries at that time.
If several key players return, such as Darrisaw, Kelly, Van Ginkel, Smith, and Okudah, I think the Vikings’ chances against a fairly healthy Bengals team would improve significantly (though the loss of Burrow is a major factor). Yes, the Bengals are 2-0, but they’ve been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, have beaten two suspect teams (Cleveland and Jacksonville), and also start their No. 2 QB.
The Bengals played poorly on offense in the opener at Cleveland, with only 141 net yards. Burrow had only 113 passing yards but no turnovers, and Chase was held to two catches for 27 yards. Five of their six second-half drives went three-and-out. The Browns’ Myles Garrett had two sacks, which could bode well for Greenard, Van Ginkel (if he plays), and Turner. The Bengals had a better offensive performance in the win over Jacksonville with Chase exploding for 14 catches, 165 yards, and one TD. But Browning’s three picks almost cost them the game.
Browning has his 2023 win over the Vikings and last week’s win with the impressive final drive to add to his confidence. Turnovers could be his undoing after he threw the three picks last week.
Can Wentz replicate Sam Darnold’s success (excluding the late-season collapse) with O’Connell’s guidance and embark on a winning streak to delay McCarthy’s return? Sounds like a nice scenario for the Purple, but I’m picking Cincinnati 24-20 because Browning is better prepared in the Bengals’ system compared to Wentz.
But perhaps the Vikings can find a way to win through solid defense, effective rushing offense, and play by Wentz, with Jefferson making some big plays to outshine his college teammate, Chase. If not, I think things will begin to turn in the right direction on the overseas trip when several injured starters should return, Jordan Addison comes back from his suspension, and C.J. Ham comes off IR, with Blake Cashman possibly following by Week 7 after the Week 6 bye.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 3
1. The big game for NFC North teams is Detroit at Baltimore on Monday night. The game should swing on if the Ravens can pressure Jared Goff into sacks and turnovers, which was the case in the Lions’ opening loss to the Packers (four sacks, one interception), but the Lions protected better (no sacks, no turnovers) in their romp over the Bears last week.
The Ravens only sacked Josh Allen once in the opening loss at Buffalo as Allen threw for 394 yards and two TDs (no picks) and ran for two scores. But they sacked Joe Flacco twice and intercepted him once in a dominating win over the Browns in Week 2. I’m picking the Ravens to win at home because they can get to Goff, and Lamar Jackson is expected to have a big game against the Detroit defense.
Elsewhere in the division, I like the Packers to reach 3-0 with a win in Cleveland and the Bears to upset the Cowboys in Chicago (but that could easily go Dallas’ way if the Bears D doesn’t play better than in the fourth quarter against the Vikings and throughout vs. the Lions).
2. In a matchup of 2-0 teams, the Rams are at Philly in a rematch of their divisional playoff game last January, won 28-22 by the Eagles. Matthew Stafford is playing well, but I pick the Eagles at home after Saquon Barkley rushed for 205 yards and two TDs in that playoff game. If the Rams load the box to stop Barkley, Jalen Hurts will have a big day throwing to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
3. Denver (1-1) is at the L.A. Chargers (2-0) in an important early-season AFC West battle. The Chargers have looked like a Super Bowl contender in divisional victories over the Chiefs and Raiders. Justin Herbert is in the hunt with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as the MVP so far (5 TDs, no interceptions, 127.8 passer rating). I’ll take the Chargers to win at home in a close game.
4. Arizona is at San Francisco with both 2-0 teams riding a relatively soft early schedule to this meeting. The Cardinals beat the lowly Saints and Panthers, while the 49ers did have a nice win at Seattle before beating the Saints in Week 2. I’m picking the 49ers, who are the better team, and Brock Purdy may return after missing last week with a toe injury. Mac Jones played well in relief as he threw three TD passes with no picks in the win at New Orleans.
The Vikings hope Wentz can be that effective on Sunday.
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