Kevin O’Connell’s Extension + NFC/AFC Title Game Predictions
“Misery loves company,” as the old saying goes, and for the Vikings, they can take a bit of solace in the fact their fellow NFC North playoff teams — the Lions and Packers — flopped in their postseason losses as was the case with the Vikings.
The NFC North was considered the league’s best division in the 2024 regular season, but the Lions, Vikings, and Packers are absent on conference championship weekend.
Former Vikings GM Reacts to Kevin O’Connell’s Extension + NFC/AFC Title Game Predictions
The three teams went a combined 40-11 in the regular season to earn playoff berths as the NFC’s first, fifth, and seventh seeds. However, they all lost by double digits in their opening playoff games. In the wild card round, the favored Vikings lost by 18 points to the Rams in a neutral-site game, and the underdog Packers lost by 12 points in Philly.
Then the top-seeded Lions — favored by 8 ½ points at home — lost by 14 points to sensational rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in Saturday’s NFC Divisional Playoff.
That leaves the Lions still seeking their first Super Bowl. The Vikings have not played in the Super Bowl in 48 years, and the Packers won the last of their four Super Bowl titles in the 2010 season when Aaron Rodgers was in his third year as the starting quarterback.
The QB play was a big part of the problem for all three teams in the past two weeks. Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Jordan Love threw seven interceptions combined in the playoff losses.
The Lions, Vikings, and Packers also reached 15,14 and 11 regular season wins, respectively, partly due to their interconference crossover division this season, which was the league’s worst—the AFC South. All three teams went 4-0 in these matchups, and it won’t be as easy next season when the rugged AFC North is on the docket. But there were plenty of other wins against quality teams.
Here are my thoughts on where these three teams go from here:
Keys for the Vikings, Lions, and Packers in 2025:
Vikings: The Vikings made their first critical move towards repeating their regular season success and making a postseason run by extending an excellent coach in Kevin O’Connell. He is an outstanding leader and motivator and one of the league’s top QB whisperers, as shown by getting 13 wins out of Kirk Cousins in 2022 and 14 wins from Darnold this season.
I like O’Connell’s chances of coaching J.J. McCarthy once he takes over the starting role next season.
The following extension will be for GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who deserves it after leading the charge in signing so many quality free agents in 2024 who were the impetus for the great regular season. The list includes three Pro Bowl picks — Darnold and edge/OLBs Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel plus an excellent inside linebacker and the team’s leading tackler in Blake Cashman, starting corners Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, and top running back Aaron Jones.
Adofo-Mensah has overcome a shaky first draft with better picks in the past two drafts. Of course, it will be critical that McCarthy and his fellow 2024 first-rounder Dallas Turner (who flashed at times this season) become impact players. The Vikings also need to accumulate more picks after the upcoming draft, when they only have three picks currently (a first and two fifths). They will likely get a third-round compensatory pick after losing Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter last year in free agency.
To overtake the Lions as NFC North champs and make a playoff run in 2025, the Vikings must get the QB decision right on the veteran bridge between Darnold and Daniel Jones or another QB and if it’s indeed McCarthy at the helm, then they must coach him up to be clutch in big games (which Darnold wasn’t the last two games against the Lions and Rams).
The Vikings also must navigate free agency (with a robust $65-70 million of salary cap room) to improve the interior offensive line that was a big part of allowing nine sacks by the Rams (along with Darnold holding the ball too long). The return of star LT Christian Darrisaw from his ACL injury will also be a huge help for the O-line. And the team must re-sign Pro Bowl corner Byron Murphy and possibly Stephon Gilmore and Cam Bynum and hit the open market to further improve the secondary and perhaps add defensive line help.
The Vikings have only three picks in the upcoming draft (a first — No.24 — and two fifths) but should pick up a third-round compensatory pick. They can use these picks to reinforce their trouble spots.
I’ll discuss the blueprint for the Vikings’ next step forward in 2025, which includes a division title and playoff success, in more depth next week.
Lions: Dan Campbell has a talented Lions team that was beaten as the top seed due to five turnovers by the offense and the many injuries catching up with the defense (which should’ve been the case in Week 18 against the Vikings if Darnold had played better). The Lions were missing five starters (including Pro Bowl DE Aidan Hutchinson) and allowed Daniels and the Washington offense to ring up 45 points and 481 yards while only punting once.
The Detroit defense allowed more than 30 points in four of its final six games. Coach Dan Campbell, to his credit, said injuries are no excuse.
The team will undergo a coaching transition at the coordinator level. Campbell faces the big challenge of replacing Ben Johnson (the new Bears head coach) as the offensive coordinator and DC Aaron Glenn, who has been hired as the Jets’ new head coach. This change in coordinators in Detroit should help the Vikings (and the Packers), as Detroit plays a tougher first-place schedule.
Lions GM Brad Holmes has built a terrific roster with seven Pro Bowlers, including five on offense. The Lions should be back in the mix for the division title and a top seed if they get the new coordinator hires right, have better health on defense (especially with their best players such as Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, and top corner Carlton Davis who is a pending free agent) and if Goff shakes off this playoff failure (which he should be able to do).
The Lions also must do well in free agency with 24 unrestricted free agents, including several key players such as Davis and starting guard Kevin Zeitler, to re-sign. They’re in excellent salary cap shape to bring in some new players as needed, with $68 million of cap room this year. Adding pass rush help will be a target after the team had 37 sacks to rank 23rd in the regular season and no sacks on Daniels in the playoff game (the return of Hutchinson will be a big boost to the pass rush).
The Lions also have six draft picks, including first and second-rounders, in order to add talent.
Packers:
The Packers’ hopes of winning the division title were derailed by their inability to beat the top NFC teams (two losses each to the Lions and Vikings in the regular season and a loss to the Eagles). Landing the seventh seed sent them to Philly, where injuries and sub-par play by Love contributed heavily to the defeat.
By the second half of the Eagles’ game, Love was missing deep threat Christian Watson (torn ACL from Week 18), his other top wide receivers, Jayden Reed and Romeo Dobbs, and his best offensive lineman, Pro Bowler Elgton Jenkins, who was hurt early in the game.
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur have to decide on Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander ($25 million cap hit in 2025 but a $6 million cap savings if he’s traded or released). He played in only seven games each of the last two seasons.
In order to overtake the Lions and Vikings and make noise in the playoffs, the Packers need to fine-tune a young team with their full complement of seven draft picks and an estimated $44 million in cap room to re-sign key free agents such as center Josh Myers and DT TJ Slaton and further augment the roster, especially in the secondary if Alexander departs.
The Pack needs better health (including for Love, who dealt with knee and elbow injuries this season), and the 26-year-old Love must continue his ascension, play better in the postseason than he did against Philly, and reach top-five QB status to justify his $55 million per year extension (second-biggest QB deal in new money). That will create a well-balanced offense with Green Bay’s strong running game led by a top back in Josh Jacobs (1,329 rushing yards to rank sixth and 15 rushing TDs (fourth).
And Da’ Bears: As we’re discussing the NFC North, here are a few thoughts on the Bears, who went from an excellent start at 4-2 to a 10-game losing streak (that resulted in the mid-season firing of coach Matt Eberflus) before beating the Packers to finish last at 5-12.
Ben Johnson will be expected to improve the 31st-ranked passing attack through the development of 2024 first-overall pick Caleb Williams. He showed flashes of talent but often held the ball too long and suffered from awful pass protection. The Bears allowed a league-worst 68 sacks.
Chicago has plenty of skill-position players on offense, and the defense has playmakers, but it must improve its No. 28 ranking against the run.
This is a critical year for GM Ryan Poles to improve the team via the draft (three picks in the top 42) and free agency with an estimated $69 million in cap room. The offensive line should be his top priority.
The NFC North should continue to be one of the league’s best divisions in 2025. However, since postseason success is the most important factor, it will truly tell the tale after the current postseason’s poor end.
Around the NFL: NFC/AFC Title Game Predictions:
I’ve always said the conference championship games are the most pressure-filled for teams with a Super Bowl berth on the line. My Vikings and Titans teams made it to four NFC and two AFC title games, and we won two of those games to reach the Super Bowl — in 1976, in my first season with the Vikings, and in 1999 (my first year in Tennessee). Unfortunately, we lost both Super Bowls, but we at least got there by winning the conference championship.
Washington at Philadelphia: I thought Daniels would give the Lions depleted D trouble, and he did with 299 passing yards, two TDs, and 51 rushing yards. It won’t be so easy against the Eagles’ top-ranked D, but in the 36-33 Week 16 win over the Eagles, Daniels threw for 258 yards and five TDs, including the 9-yard game-winner to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left. Daniels also hurt the Eagles on the ground with 81 yards. He was picked off twice.
Kenny Pickett relieved Jalen Hurts (concussion) in the first quarter of that game and had only 143 passing yards with an interception. Saquon Barkley rushed for 150 yards in the game and should be a big factor again, along with a healthy Hurts.
The Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, with Hurts passing for 221 yards and Barkley running for 146 yards. The pressure is all on Phill,y and Daniels plays with no fear in big games. I’m picking the Eagles 27-24 with Hurts and Barkley leading the way, but an upset by the Commanders wouldn’t surprise me.
Buffalo at Kansas City: I learned last year not to pick against Patrick Mahomes in the postseason after predicting he’d lose at Buffalo and Baltimore. Of course, he emerged victorious, and the Chiefs’ defense also played a big role.
I’ll be cheering for Josh Allen to reach his first Super Bowl after a likely MVP season. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Buffalo in Week 11, with Allen producing 317 total yards and two TDs, and the Buffalo defense intercepted Mahomes twice (he also threw three TD passes).
Kansas City is playing at a higher level now than the last time the teams met, with Mahomes and Travis Kelce connecting well as usual in the postseason (seven times for 117 yards and one TD last week against Houston). As Mahomes and the Chiefs seek a first-ever Super Bowl title three-peat, I’m picking them at home to beat the Bills 26-23 for their fourth win over Buffalo in the last five years in the playoffs.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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