Can Vikings and J.J. McCarthy Pull Off Big Upset in Detroit?
The prevailing opinion on Sunday’s game between the Vikings and the Lions in Detroit is that it would be a big upset if the Purple find a way to beat the two-time defending NFC North champion Lions, who have won five straight in the series.
And despite upsets occurring every week in the NFL, it’s considered an exceedingly difficult task for J.J. McCarthy to lead his team to victory this week in the area where he won a national championship as Michigan’s quarterback in 2023.
J.J. McCarthy returns from injury as the Vikings face the Lions in Detroit, aiming for a major upset against the NFC North champs while Minnesota’s key starters finally get healthy.
I think these factors make this Sunday a great time for McCarthy to return to the starting lineup after missing the last five games with a high ankle sprain. That’s because no one expects McCarthy and the Vikings to win this game. So there’s a bit less pressure on the 22-year-old QB who says he’s healthy and “extremely confident.”
If McCarthy gets the ball out quick to his excellent skill position players led by Justin Jefferson, avoids sacks and turnovers and runs for some key first downs (while sliding to avoid big hits so he can stay healthy), and the Vikings are competitive in the game even if they fall short of winning, then the team and Vikings fans can feel there’s hope for continued improvement by McCarthy and the team over the second half of the season and perhaps a late surge to a playoff spot.
Vikings Will Call on J.J. McCarthy for Reinvigoration
The good news for the Vikings, injury-wise, is that McCarthy, Christian Darrisaw, and Andrew Van Ginkel were full practice participants on Wednesday, and Van Ginkel had another full practice on Thursday. Brian O’Neill was limited both days, but at least he was practicing. It’s obvious how critical Darrisaw and O’Neill are to the O-line. Van Ginkel is a much-needed playmaker against the pass and run for a defense that was porous against the Chargers and Eagles.
The bad news was two important blockers in the run and pass game—Josh Oliver and C.J. Ham—did not practice on Wednesday, and Kevin O’Connell said Oliver won’t play in Detroit (but should be back soon after).
The Lions are 5-2, a half-game back of the Packers (who also beat Detroit on opening day with their rematch coming in Detroit on Thanksgiving), so the Lions will be highly motivated to win at home and stay close to the Pack while the Vikings try to get back to .500 at 4-4.
Here are my keys to a Vikings surprise win over the Lions:
1. Win the turnover battle: It’s been tough sledding lately, which is a big factor in dropping three of the last four games. The Vikings are minus-4 in turnover ratio, and the Lions are plus-6. The Vikings D needs more takeaways: it forced a league-high 33 last season and has only eight thus far.
2. Run the ball: It’s not a good matchup for the Vikings’ 26th-ranked rushing attack against the Lions’ No. 4 run defense. Having Darrisaw and O’Neill on the field for the full game is a must to help open holes, but the offense will miss Oliver and Ham if he’s also out.
The Vikings ran successfully in both games against the Lions last season—139 yards in the Week 7 31-29 loss (93 yards for Aaron Jones) and 120 yards in the Week 18 31-9 defeat (65 yards from Cam Akers).
3. McCarthy gets the ball out quickly and O-line protects him: McCarthy’s college teammate at Michigan—DE Aidan Hutchinson—has six sacks this season and just signed a four-year, $180 million extension. The Vikings need to help whoever is playing right tackle—O’Neill with his MCL injury, Justin Skule, or Walter Rouse—with consistent double teams against Hutchinson. We need to see lots of wide receiver screens to Jefferson and Jordan Addison, screens with Aaron Jones, and other quick passes.
4. Get the ball to Jefferson: He’s had several big games against the Lions’ secondary in recent years (including seven catches for 81 yards and one TD in the first game last season, but only three receptions for 54 yards in the 2024 season finale when Sam Darnold played poorly).
The Detroit secondary has been banged up this season. It appears corner Terrion Arnold (shoulder) will return this week, but the other starting corner—D.J. Reed—is on IR for at least one more week. Cheap-shotting all-pro safety Kerby Joseph (who took out Hockenson’s knee two years ago with a low hit) has a knee injury and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday after missing the Week 7 win over Tampa Bay before the Lions’ bye week.
If McCarthy has time to throw, he can make some big plays downfield to Jefferson, Addison, and Jalen Nailor, along with shorter completions to Hockenson and Jones out of the backfield.
5. Contain the dangerous Jahmyr Gibbs: the super-quick Pro Bowl back killed the Vikings in both games last season. He rushed for 116 yards and two TDs in the October meeting and topped it with a 139-yard rushing day with three TDs on the ground plus a TD catch in the Week 18 game.
It was expected that the Lions’ offense would take a step back this season after the retirement of Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow, the loss of guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency, and OC Ben Johnson leaving for the Bears’ head coaching job.
But the revamped O-line has done well so far, with young guards Tate Ratledge (a second-round rookie) and Christian Mahogany (a sixth-round pick in 2024) stepping in, and vet Graham Glasgow effectively moving to center. The Vikings need a strong performance from their defensive line and linebackers to help stop the run and pressure Goff.
At least the Vikings D doesn’t have to worry about Jared Goff running or escaping pressure to buy time, unlike the difficulties in containing Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert the past two weeks (and Lamar Jackson of the Ravens will present a similar challenge next week if his hamstring issue doesn’t recur). The Vikings did a great job in run defense against Saquon Barkley (44 yards) and the Eagles, but it came at the expense of a huge passing day, and the D had issues against both the run and pass in the Chargers game.
6. Pressure and sack Goff and force him into turnovers: If the Vikings can pressure and sack Goff at a high rate, it will go a long way towards success in this game. Having Van Ginkel back (11.5 sacks, 19 QB hits, and 18 tackles-for-loss) makes a huge difference.
The Vikings also need a big game from Jonathan Greenard, who has only two sacks after 12 last season, and this would be a good week for a big game out of Dallas Turner, plus timely blitzes from Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace, and Eric Wilson from their linebacker spots, along with Josh Metellus and Harrison Smith on safety blitzes.
The Vikings sacked Goff four times in the first matchup last season when he threw for 280 yards and two TDs, and sacked him only two times, but did intercept him twice in the second game.
7. Cover the talented Lions receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta have hurt the Vikings in the past, especially St. Brown (eight catches for 112 yards and one TD in the first game last season; six receptions for 77 yards in the second game). LaPorta (seven catches for 63 yards in the January meeting) is a concern after the Vikings allowed Chargers rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden to have a big game last week (five catches, 77 yards, one TD).
8. Limit the penalties: it was a problem again against the Chargers (eight penalties for 66 yards) for one of the NFL’s most penalized teams.
9. Big plays and solid coverage on special teams: what a great week this would be for a Myles Price touchdown return. And no holding penalties on long returns—Tyler Batty and Company. Both teams have solid kickers—on field goals, Will Reichard has two misses and Jake Bates has three misses this season, all from 50-plus, and they’re both perfect on extra points.
Prediction
Both offenses will move the ball. The Vikings are the more desperate team, but the Lions want to keep pace with the Packers. I think the Vikings will keep it close in the first half, but the Lions’ talented offense will pull away in the second half. I see it 34-23 Detroit.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 9
1. Elsewhere in the NFC North, Green Bay will handle Carolina at Lambeau to improve to an NFC-best 6-1-1. Chicago is at Cincinnati in a hard game to call, with two up-and-down teams, but I think the Bears will win and move to 5-3.
2. The game of the week is Kansas City at Buffalo in an exciting Sunday night matchup between the teams that met in last year’s AFC title game, won by the Chiefs 32-29 (for the fourth straight win over the Bills in postseason). But the Bills have won the last four regular-season meetings, and I think they’ll do it again this week at home with a big game from Josh Allen while Patrick Mahomes also lights it up.
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