What We Got Wrong about Vikings Free Agency
The Minnesota Vikings have notably signed Ryan Kelly (C), Will Fries (G), Jonathan Allen (DT), Javon Hargrave (DT), Jordan Mason (RB, trade), Isaiah Rodgers (CB), and Jeff Okudah (CB) in free agency in addition to re-upping with Aaron Jones (RB), Byron Murphy Jr. (CB), Theo Jackson (S), and Harrison Smith (S).
What We Got Wrong about Vikings Free Agency
The action was fast and furious last week, and the purple team is now poised for an extended Super Bowl push if one assumes that quarterback J.J. McCarthy can morph into a Top 12 quarterback.
And to look back — hold ourselves accountable — we assess what we got wrong (and right) about Vikings free agency.
1. Daniel Jones Re-Signed as QB2
Verdict: Incorrect
What We Said:
Sam Darnold will depart in free agency — after a lot of offseason mystery — and Jones will snugly slide into the “Sam Darnold role” for 2025. And that’s an affordable insurance policy for J.J. McCarthy with ample starting experience.
Minnesota forged this path with Jones strategically three months ago, and the plan will come to fruition early next week.
What Actually Happened:
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport tweeted, “Vikings QB Daniel Jones is expected to sign with the Colts, sources tell me and Tom Pelissero. It’s a one-year deal and the parties are finalizing it. While Minnesota was a strong option, Jones opts to compete with Anthony Richardson in Indy.”
Jones will vie for a QB1 job against Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis. Sources tell VikingsTerritory that Jones was not offered a contract in Minnesota once Jones realized that the Vikings would start J.J. McCarthy in 2025.
2. Harrison Smith Back for Last Ride
Verdict: Correct
What We Said:
Harrison Smith will return to Minnesota on a one-year extension. This will happen for two chief reasons:
- Smith has shown no noticeable evidence of an age-related decline.
- Brian Flores is back in the saddle.
Contrary circumstances to either numbered point above might’ve thrusted Smith into retirement, but now’s just not quite the time. One more run for Hitman.
What Actually Happened:
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero tweeted Wednesday evening, “Six-time Pro Bowl safety Harrison Smith will return for a 14th NFL season, agreeing to terms today on a new contract with the Vikings, per sources. At age 36, Smith is still playing at a high level and can now add to his hall of fame resume.”
Smith fires up one last ride, which was likely enabled by the return of defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
3. Aaron Jones Returns
Verdict: Correct
What We Said:
Minnesota has a contract number in front of Jones, rumored to be around $6 or $7 million. He’ll ponder that figure, sniff around his free-agent options, and realize the Vikings represent his best chance to win in his career’s remainder.
Jones returns for $6.5 million per year — for one or two seasons.
What Actually Happened:
ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted right before the start of free agency, “Minnesota is getting back its back: Aaron Jones is re-signing with the Vikings on a two-year, $20 million deal that includes $13 million guaranteed, per sources. The deal was negotiated by Drew Rosenhaus.’
It’s Year No. 2 for Jones — on a handsome contract — who will pair with Jordan Mason, a man Minnesota traded for last weekend.
4. Vikings Fill All Major Roster Needs
Verdict: Correct
What We Said:
Because of the huge wallet — $63 million that can easily expand to $85 million with simple contract restructures — the Vikings will check all main roster needs off their list in free agency’s first couple of weeks.
That will leave the 2025 NFL Draft as “gravy” to select the best player available in Round 1.
Not all talent will be created equal per roster position, but onlookers will be impressed by the mega free-agent haul.
What Actually Happened:
Down the line, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah exactly fulfilled this prophecy. He can now singularly focus on the best player available in the NFL draft at Pick No. 24.
5. Two “Flores Guys” Join the Defense
Verdict: Incorrect (so far)
What We Said:
The Vikings will sign a twosome of former players who accompanied Brian Flores at previous spots.
These are names to keep in mind:
- Jevon Holland (S)
- Jerome Baker (LB)
- Robert Spillane (LB)
- Raekwon Davis (DT)
- Emmanuel Ogbah (OLB)
What Actually Happened:
While free agency isn’t totally over, the Vikings have signed zero former “Flores guys.” Perhaps this prediction will take shape in the summer.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.