In the last couple of weeks, Aaron Rodgers to the Minnesota Vikings theories have overtaken an otherwise robust and exciting free agency orchestrated by general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
Aaron Rodgers to Vikings Momentum Takes a Sharp Turn
The young executive has onboarded a litany of impact newcomers, but in the backdrop, fans have asked, “Are they really going to get Aaron Rodgers?”
As of Monday, March 17th, here’s where Rodgers-to-Vikings stands.
The Latest on Aaron Rodgers
The Athletic reported over the weekend, “Rodgers is hoping to sign with the Vikings, who went 14-3 in 2024 before suffering a first-round playoff defeat to the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been strongly weighing the possibility of pursuing Rodgers as a replacement for 2024 starter Sam Darnold, who signed a three-year, $100 million free-agent deal Wednesday with the Seattle Seahawks.”
“The bottom line: There are a lot of people waiting on Rodgers’ decision. And Rodgers, at least for now, is waiting on O’Connell.”
KFAN’s Paul Allen tweeted late last week, “Sticking by all I’ve tweeted and said 92Noon. JJ McCarthy should and will be your starting QB in ’25, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we learn of this kind of soon.
If wrong I’ll eat it, but nah …. Skol.”
Sources tell VikingsTerritory that Rodgers in purple is unlikely to come to fruition and that national media has propped up momentum. In fact, if one snoops around the legitimacy of the Rodgers signing in the Twin Cities, it’s always the same folks driving the train.
As of Sunday, it seemed like most Vikings fans had accepted that Rodgers to Minnesota was more a pipe dream than a reality.
Rodgers wanting Minnesota versus the purple team actually wanting him are markedly different items.
What the Betting Market Says about Aaron Rodgers’ Free Agency
If one follows the betting market, Rodgers becoming a Pittsburgh Steeler is significantly more viable. Per Polymarket, Rodgers has a 37% probability of signing on Pittsburgh’s bottom line, 24% for the New York Giants, and 19% for the purple team.
Of course, betting markets are not infallible, but they’re a reasonable indicator of eventual outcome, even accurately predicting the presidential outcome in November.
If Rodgers does not retire, the Steelers provide the most comfortable landing spot — a team with sturdy infrastructure, a Hall of Fame head coach in the making, two premiere playmakers in D.K. Metcalf and George Pickens, and a decent defense.
Put plainly, the Steelers and Giants need a quarterback. The Vikings do not.
J.J. McCarthy or Bust?
In February, McCarthy made one request for the offseason, speaking with Rich Eisen: he just wants his chance to lead the franchise.
“There’s a lot of things that are certainly above my pay grade and some things above his pay grade,” McCarthy replied when asked about his teammate Sam Darnold’s impending free agency.
McCarthy told Eisen, “All I could ask for is a fair opportunity. That’s the one thing I feel like everybody’s given and it’s fundamental. When money gets involved, things get complicated and reps get skewed and there’s different things that come into the whole political world that everyone talks about. I really just have to focus on controlling what I can control.”
Darnold later joined the Seattle Seahawks.
Signing Rodgers would directly clash with McCarthy’s statement. That is — Rodgers’ hypothetical contract would muddy the waters of McCarthy’s ascension, and he’d be almost assured to sit on the bench for another season.
Minnesota has carefully concocted an offseason through two months to pay impact players alongside McCarthy and his affordable rookie contract. Rodgers’ payday would pump the brakes on the budget and prevent McCarthy’s takeover.
It’s also worth noting that the Vikings leaders have spoken glowingly about McCarthy for months and since his addition to the franchise 11 months ago.
It is indeed likely McCarthy or bust.
Rest of Vikings Free Agency
The Vikings have notably signed Ryan Kelly (C), Will Fries (G), Jonathan Allen (DT), Javon Hargrave (DT), and Isaiah Rodgers (CB) in free agency in addition to re-upping with Aaron Jones (RB), Byron Murphy Jr. (CB), Theo Jackson (S), and the beloved one, Harrison Smith (S).
The franchise also traded a 6th-Round draft pick in 2026 for San Francisco 49ers running back Jordan Mason.
The entire offseason feels like a springboard to the McCarthy era — not an offhanded Aaron Rodgers experiment.
Finally, all Rodgers theories are really rooted in his eerie parallels to Brett Favre 16 years ago. In 2008, the Green Bay Packers cut Favre loose, he promptly joined the Jets, and tried the Vikings on for size in 2009. The rest was almost history.
One must wonder if the entire Rodgers-to-Minnesota saga is just a grand homage to nostalgia. Otherwise, it just doesn’t make sense.
The momentum — if there was any in the first place — for Rodgers to the Twin Cities has faded. It’s probably Pittsburgh.
There’s also this:
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.