Week 1 NFL Picks: Will the Vikings Topple the Bears on the Road?
Ladies and gentlemen, the 2025 NFL regular season is almost here.
Thursday night officially marks the start of the new season, and it is the best time of the year because every fanbase can be filled with hope. It also means it’s time to start a new season of NFL picks. Here are my picks for Week 1 of the 2025 regular season.
Week 1 NFL Picks
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -8.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Eagles -8.5
The season gets started with an NFC East rivalry as the Philadelphia Eagles begin their Super Bowl defense against the Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia’s defense will cause trouble for Dak Prescott, and it feels like a lot of the air has been taken out of Dallas following the Micah Parsons trade. Eagles win big.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- O/U: O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers -3.5
The Los Angeles Chargers saw a big rebound in 2024 during Jim Harbaugh’s first season as head coach, and now, they can make a big statement to begin 2025. This has the feel of the Chiefs’ Week 1 loss to the Lions a couple years ago.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
The Buccaneers are going to be good this year despite losing Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan at least for the time being. Emeka Egbuka will be in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year in a big role, and Baker Mayfield has torched the Falcons throughout his career.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Bengals -5.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bengals -5.5
Maybe Cleveland’s defense can cause some trouble for the Bengals’ offensive line, but I just don’t see how this Browns offense is going to keep up with Cincinnati and all the weapons that the Bengals have at their disposal.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -1.5
- 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Dolphins +1.5
This is a tough game because I cannot get a read on either of the Dolphins or Colts. Could either one surprise and make the playoffs? Maybe, but how long is Tua going to stay healthy this year? Can Daniel Jones actually lead an NFL offense again? Ultimately, I trust the Dolphins a bit more as long as Tua is on the field, so they pull off this win on the road.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -2.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Raiders +2.5
Pete Carroll is going to completely rejuvenate this Raiders team, and they are finally stable at the quarterback position again with Geno Smith under center. Add in that Ashton Jeanty is going to be a force in the rushing attack, and Las Vegas’ offense has a chance to be special this year. The Patriots should see some improvements in the second year of the Drake Maye experience too, but it might take longer than in Las Vegas.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Cardinals -6.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cardinals -6.5
Simply put, the Saints are going to be bad this year. I may not pick them against a spread all season. They are rolling into the year with Spencer Rattler at quarterback after he went 0-6 in starts last year, and the Saints averaged a whole 12.3 points per game in those starts. The defense is aging too, and Arizona should be able to come into New Orleans and win relatively handily.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
- Spread: Steelers -2.5
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Steelers -2.5
Aaron Rodgers is going back to MetLife Stadium in his first game as a Pittsburgh Steeler, and while I don’t see either of these teams being very good in 2025, the Steelers at least have the infrastructure in place to find some sort of success despite the presence of a 41-year-old quarterback who has seemed to be a bit of a locker room cancer over the past few years.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Commanders -6.5
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Giants +6.5
The Washington Commanders may be set to take a step back in 2025, and there is little reason to believe their defense is going to be all that much better in 2025, particularly after the departure of Jonathan Allen. New York is rolling into the season with Russell Wilson at QB, which hasn’t exactly been a recipe for success since he left Seattle. Still, the Giants have a number of weapons on offense, and their defensive front remains one of the best in football, giving them a chance to keep this one close.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Jaguars -3.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Panthers +3.5
This feels like it’s going to be a game that is decided by a field goal in a score like 17-14 or 20-17. The Jaguars are hoping Travis Hunter can help them on both sides of the ball, so that will be intriguing to watch. Carolina also showed signs of promise down the stretch of 2024 with Bryce Young, and they gave him another new weapon in Tetairora McMillan.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -8.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Titans +8.5
The Tennessee Titans have a chance to be a big surprise team in Week 1. Cam Ward has somehow managed to go under the radar as a first overall pick, and Tennessee won’t give up 28 points per game this year as long as they manage their turnovers. Denver was one of the more surprising playoff teams of 2024 in Bo Nix’s rookie year, and they probably win this game at home. However, I think Tennessee keeps it close.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -2.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Packers -2.5
This could be a very important NFC North battle that goes a long way towards deciding how this division stacks up in January. As already mentioned, the Packers are rolling out a new defensive front that now includes Micah Parsons, and they added another talented young receiver to the mix in Matthew Golden. Detroit is hoping to rebound after their 2024 season unceremoniously ended with a disastrous playoff loss to the Washington Commanders, and they have had to replace both coordinators this offseason. Detroit gets off to a slower start, so Green Bay wins at home.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -3.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Texans +3.5
We’ll see how a 37-year-old Matthew Stafford holds up as the year goes on, but both of these teams should firmly be in the mix to make the playoffs in their given conferences. Ultimately, this feels like another field goal game, and CJ Stroud finds a way to keep it close along with a talented Houston defense.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -1.5
- O/U: 50.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bills -1.5
It’s a battle of the heavyweights for the first Sunday Night Football matchup of the year as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen face off in Buffalo. The Bills beat Baltimore in the playoffs last year, and while the Ravens will be very good again this season, it’s going to be tough to overcome Buffalo on the road.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Vikings -1.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings -1.5
It’s the start of new eras in both Chicago and Minnesota as Ben Johnson debuts as the Bears’ head coach and J.J. McCarthy makes his first start at quarterback for the Vikings. Ultimately, Minnesota’s defensive front should give fits to Chicago’s offensive line and Caleb Williams, so the Vikings pull off this win at Soldier Field.
Editor’s Note: Statistics for this article were found via Pro Football Reference.
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