The Vikings Just Got Unexpected Good News
If you’re into tracking the Minnesota Vikings draft and compensatory picks, Tuesday provided wonderful news.
The Minnesota Vikings just got surprising good news tied to the Indianapolis Colts. Here’s why it matters for a future compensatory draft pick in 2026.
Former Minnesota Vikings quarterback Daniel Jones will start this season in Indianapolis, the team he chose over the Vikings back in March, fending off third-year passer Anthony Richardson for the top job.
If Jones remains in the saddle for most of the 2025 campaign, Minnesota will receive a 4th-Round draft selection next April.
The Vikings’ Compensatory Draft Pick Formula Became Sweeter on Tuesday
Daniel Jones got the nod for the Colts after a summer battle.
Daniel Jones Named QB1 in Indianapolis
At least out of the gate this season, it’s a done deal for Jones as the QB1 with his new employer.
NBC Sports‘ Mike Florio wrote Tuesday, “Another day, another Week 1 starting quarterback has been named. According to NFL Media, Daniel Jones has gotten the nod over Anthony Richardson. It’s a stunning move, given the investment the Colts made just two years ago in Richardson. He was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft.”
“Jones, the sixth pick in 2019, was cut by the Giants at his request after he was benched for business reasons, arising from his injury guarantee for 2025. He joined the Vikings’ practice squad. For the postseason, he was elevated to the active roster.”
For the betterment of Minnesota’s compensatory pick formula, fans wanted Jones to win the QB1 job, and that’s what he did.
Chances of a 4th-Round Compensatory Pick Sweeten for Vikings
Jones must play 60.6% of offensive snaps or more for the Colts this season for Minnesota to be in the driver’s seat for a 4th-Rounder. Full stop. If he slips below that, giving way to Richardson for whatever reason, the Vikings will be on tap for a 5th-Rounder.
In the draft process, there’s often a stark difference between a 4th-Round and 5th-Round pick, believe it or not. General managers and fans expect a 4th-Round pick to contribute, at least marginally, whereas 5th-Round picks are largely considered lottery tickets. Think of it this way: nobody cares if a 5th-Rounder flames out. Heads turn when a 4th-Rounder does nothing.
That’s the situation for Minnesota and Jones. If he remains the starter for most of 2025, a 4th-Round pick will funnel into the Vikings’ bucket in eight months.
You Are a Daniel Jones Fan for a Few Months
This one is pretty straightforward: while Vikings fans may have no vested interest in the Colts succeeding, they should cheer for Jones personally — to keep the draft selection inside Round 4.
For example, if Jones stinks — he might — and Richardson takes over, the pick will revert to Round 5. Therefore, the 28-year-old Jones must play well enough to stay in the lineup as a starter for at least 11 games.
He can get benched for Richardson — he probably will, given his track record — but that can’t last longer than six games.
The Worst-Case Scenario
Should Jones flounder, Minnesota would accept the 5th-Rounder and move on. After all, Jones played no regular season or playoff snaps for the Vikings; they just signed him midseason 2024 as a Sam Darnold insurance policy.
It’s also worth noting that Minnesota is virtually locked into a 3rd-Round compensatory pick for Darnold’s free-agent exit to the Seattle Seahawks. The Jones angle is about gravy: Minnesota can realistically grab a 3rd-Rounder and 4th-Rounder simply because Darnold and Jones left in free agency.
The team, too, could receive a late-round pick for Trent Sherfield’s free-agent departure to Denver, depending on his snap count. Stay tuned.
More on Jones over Richardson’
IndyStar‘s Joel A. Erickson wrote Tuesday, “Richardson seemed like the favorite. Unlike Jones, a reluctant downfield thrower who has a career average of just 6.5 yards per attempt, Richardson has already proven he can produce the explosive plays Steichen craves in his offense.”
“Richardson was forced to shut down the final two weeks of the offseason due to aggravation in his throwing shoulder, and he was knocked out of the preseason opener after dislocating the pinkie finger on his throwing hand. In addition, he continued to be up and down in training camp, completing 59.1% of his passes in training camp, according to unofficial numbers compiled by IndyStar, a number that trails behind his 61.1% at Grand Park in 2024.”
The Colts are expected to finish around 7-10 this season, according to oddsmakers.
Erickson continued, “Jones completed 68.8% of his passes in training camp — although he failed to establish an ability to push the ball downfield — and demonstrated his credentials as a consummate NFL quarterback with the reliability the Colts craved.”
“Steichen believes the consistency of Jones is a better play than the upside of Richardson. A Colts team desperate to get back to the playoffs now has to hope that he’s right.”
Indianapolis starts the regular season at home against the Miami Dolphins in 19 days, with Jones under center.
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