Vikings Playoff Odds Now on a Razor’s Edge
The Minnesota Vikings are still in the hunt for the postseason, but they must win this Sunday in a contest against the Chicago Bears. The margin of error has shrunk to the size of a needle.
The Vikings’ playoff odds now sit on a razor’s edge, with shrinking margins and rising pressure defining a critical stretch that will decide the season.
The season began with about 50-50 odds for Minnesota to reach the dance, but it’s a different story just over the halfway point of the regular season.
The Vikings Are Down to Their Last Sliver of Playoff Hope
Minnesota must be 6-6 by December 6th to have a puncher’s chance.
Pro Football Focus: 18%
Last Week: 26%
PFF calls the Vikings the NFL’s 14th-best team — but with puny playoff odds, mainly because the NFC is stuffed to the gills with winning teams (eight through 10 weeks).
Thomas Valentine at the site noted this week, “It’s still early days in the J.J. McCarthy era, and the 2024 first-round pick has shown flashes of arm talent and mobility that’ll serve him well at the NFL level.”
“But Sunday’s loss to the Ravens was a stark reminder that growing pains are inevitable. How much blame can be put on McCarthy for the 13 total penalties, a large portion of which were false start penalties at home? Who knows. But there were still positives to take from the game. McCarthy totaled four big-time throws in the loss, the most he’s had in a game this season.”
NFL.com‘s Eric Edholm named the Vikings the NFL’s 20th-best team this week and explained, “It was another chaotic experience with J.J. McCarthy at QB, and this one didn’t end as well as the rousing win at Detroit. McCarthy wasn’t helped by the Vikings’ execution against the Ravens, with a shocking eight false start penalties and perhaps not Kevin O’Connell’s finest game as a play-caller.”
“Even still, McCarthy threw two picks, missed some key third-down throws and couldn’t pull it out late in spite of a gutsy effort. Myles Price fumbling two straight kickoffs (one lost) didn’t help. The Vikings still have plenty of high-stakes games left to prove themselves, but they haven’t logged back-to-back wins yet.”
Sportsbooks: 16.9%
Last Week: 21%
Sportsbooks were not impressed with Minnesota’s second-half collapse against Baltimore, lowering the odds by 4%.
Philadelphia is Vegas’ overwhelming darling to reach the postseason, with the Vikings sharing mathematical probability space next to the Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers.
Power Ranking Guru: 12%
Last Week: 19%
PRG uses multiple factors, such as past strength of schedule and future opponent caliber, to formulate its rankings and playoff percentages.
It believes that Minnesota is the NFL’s 17th-best team, sandwiched between the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 16) and Chicago Bears (No. 18). PRG names the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles as the best teams in the business.
Bleacher Report‘s Mo Moton on Minnesota’s performance against the Ravens: “Last week, Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy took a step forward, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for one in a win over the Detroit Lions. In Week 10, he struggled, throwing for a touchdown and two interceptions.”
“The Vikings are going through the growing pains with their second-year signal-caller, who will see ups and downs in his first year as a starter. Minnesota is a mediocre squad that may not finish above .500 in a tough division with rivals that have winning records.”
ESPN FPI: 8.5%
Last Week: 13.6%
According to ESPN’s popular FPI metric, the most likely Super Bowl matchup in 2025 is the Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts, which virtually no one had on their bingo boards back in August.
Minnesota ranks 21st in current analytical power rankings per FPI.
The Athletic plopped Minnesota at No. 20 in Week 11 power rankings and called linebacker Eric Wilson the main breakout player for the purple team.
Josh Kendall opined, “In his ninth year, Wilson has a career-high 3.5 sacks while leading the Vikings in tackles with 57. He’s second on the team in tackles for loss and has two interceptions. Not bad for a veteran who has played for three teams since leaving the Vikings after his first stint with the team in 2020.”
DVOA: 6.5%
Last Week: 10.4%
DVOA has viewed Minnesota unfavorably since the Week 2 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The percentage climbs a bit after wins, returning to the cellar after losses.
And for DVOA, the most likely Super Bowl outcome in February is Seattle against Indianapolis. Of course, that would feature the battle of former Vikings quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones. Social media would probably melt if DVOA has it right.
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