Vikings Playoff Math Hits Life Support
The Minnesota Vikings have a 3-4 record after eight weeks, and while that is not insurmountable, the team’s upcoming schedule is considered the most difficult in the NFL. Accordingly, no credible NFL playoff metric thinks much of Minnesota’s postseason chances.
Until they are ruled out, fans will hope the Minnesota Vikings have a playoff trip deep in their bag, but by the day, the odds grow grimmer.
The odds are disheartening and dismal, but Minnesota will have a chance to start to right the ship on Sunday at Detroit.
Playoff Odds for Vikings in Rough Shape
The team simply needs a winning streak.
Pro Football Focus: 14%
Last Week: 33%
A substantial dip, Minnesota faceplanted per PFF’s system after the heinous loss in Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football.
PFF’s Thomas Valentine wrote about the current state of the team, “The Vikings have lost two straight games after their humbling 37-10 loss to the Chargers on Thursday night, and at 3-4, they feel like a team that’s going through a regression.”
“Carson Wentz, predictably, isn’t the answer at quarterback, but he gutted through a shoulder injury and will now miss the rest of the season. Things aren’t going to get easier for the Vikings. They have the toughest remaining schedule in the league and increased uncertainty at quarterback. The defense is 11th in EPA per play allowed, but it still has the potential to be one of the best in the NFL. The waters in Minnesota are murky.”
Power Rankings Guru: 8%
Last Week: 31%
PRG accounts for strength of schedule and the quality of victory, among other items. It believes the Indianapolis Colts are the team with the highest chance to reach the postseason (96%) and has virtually eliminated the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints from playoff contendership.
Minnesota ranks 21st in PRG’s overall ranking system.
Bleacher Report‘s Gary Davenport on Kevin O’Connell’s team: “The Vikings should have paid Sam Darnold and traded J.J. McCarthy. It becomes more evident by the week. Darnold has built on his 2024 success in Minnesota with the Seahawks.
“McCarthy has played one quarter of good football in 2025, and the Vikings will only be trotting him back out there in Week 9 in what has become something of a must-win game against the Detroit Lions because what’s left of Carson Wentz was atrocious in last Thursday’s blowout loss to the Chargers.”
McCarthy will have a chance Sunday to fight back at Davenport’s declaration about Darnold.
“The Week 8 score notwithstanding, the Vikings may well be better defensively this year than last. There’s no shortage of offensive weapons in the Twin Cities. One of two things is true after last week’s debacle: Either 2024 was a fluke, or the Vikings wasted a really good team by botching the game’s most important position,” Davenport concluded.
Sportsbooks: 12%
Last Week: 29%
Sportsbooks, too, believe the Colts have the clearest path to the postseason, followed by the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers. Minnesota’s playoff odds have dropped tremendously in Vegas’ eyes over the last two months, once holding about a 50-50 chance to make the dance.
Fast forward to the season’s midpoint, and the Vikings are at 12%. A fall from grace.
ESPN FPI: 4.7%
Last Week: 23%
ESPN’s FPI metric is unusually low on Minnesota, ranking it as the league’s 10th-worst team, sharing space with the Miami Dolphins in terms of caliber of performance.
FPI also points out that the purple team’s schedule the rest of the way is the hardest in the NFL. Fun stuff.
DVOA: 2.4%
Last Week: 16.0%
If you believe in the power of DVOA — it’s usually accurate — the 2025 Vikings are done. They share playoff percentage space with the New York Giants (2.3%).
It also claims Minnesota is the league’s seventh-worst team, even worse than the Dolphins and Panthers.
Sharp Football Analysis‘ Will Mauro on Minnesota: “The only Minnesota Miracle we saw in Week 8 was the fact that Carson Wentz managed to find Jordan Addison with a touchdown pass after spending most of the game on his back. Wentz was offered little protection as he was pressured 17 times (tied for the third-most in Week 8) and sacked five times for 27 lost yards, and he was picked off once early in the fourth to set up a Chargers field goal.”
Mauro ranked the Vikings at No. 22 in his power rankings.
“This will unfortunately be the last we’ll see of Wentz in 2025, as he sustained a season-ending left shoulder injury in the loss. The fourth-quarter struggles continue in Minnesota, but they’ll be lucky if it’s even still a game by then if their defense performs this way against the high-scoring Lions on Sunday,” Mauro added.
You must be logged in to post a comment.