The Vikings Playoff Odds Just Took a Step Forward
The Minnesota Vikings beat the pants off the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, clobbering Jake Browning and Co. by a score of 48-10. Minnesota’s playoff math climbed accordingly.
Thanks to a resounding win over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Minnesota Vikings are in a better spot this week per playoff probability.
The season still has 14 games left, but Kevin O’Connell’s squad is in a better spot this week than last — the perk of taking down an undefeated team.
Vikings Playoff Odds | Entering Week 4
To an extent, Minnesota is back.
PlayoffStatus.com | Odds to Make Playoffs: 48.0%
Last Week: 36.0% (12% increase)
Playoff Status uses wins and losses only to arrive at its percentage. It does not, for example, factor in future strength of schedule or really any scientific method into its formula. Based on the number of games left, the teams within the division and conference, and the current record, the site claims that Minnesota has roughly a coin flip’s chance of playing meaningful January football.
The Los Angeles Chargers lead the way per Playoff Status with an 82% playoff probability. The New York Giants are down bad at 7%.
NFL.com‘s Eric Edholm ranked Minnesota as the league’s 15th-best team after Week 3 and noted, “Even if the Bengals were their own worst enemies on Sunday, the Vikings showed enough with Carson Wentz at the helm to have reasonable hope they can hold the fort until J.J. McCarthy’s return.”
“Wentz was sharp early, cooled off and then heated back up in a net-positive performance. Even while taking three sacks, Wentz kept the chains moving by finding open guys. Minnesota’s run game (even without Aaron Jones) and the defense did a lot of the heavy lifting, with two defensive touchdowns and five turnovers giving the offense all the opportunities they needed and then some.”
It’s also worth noting that Minnesota currently showcases the very best defense in the NFL per EPA/Play.
“Thirteen penalties, most of them on offense, were a bummer, and they will give Kevin O’Connell his white-board point for the week ahead of the big Euro duo against the Steelers and Browns prior to the early bye. If the Vikings can make it back home with a winning record, they’ll be in far better shape to handle the most lethal part of the schedule after the bye. Sunday showed it was too soon to punt on Minnesota,” Edholm concluded.
Sportsbooks: 38.4%
Last Week: 34.1% (4% increase)
The problem for sportsbooks regarding the Vikings is evidently that the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are in the driver’s seat for playoff positioning. Green Bay has an 82% chance of making the postseason tournament, with Detroit not far behind at 73.6%.
Those teams are shoving Minnesota out of the way. Per moneyline playoff odds, Minnesota is sandwiched right now between the Atlanta Falcons (33.5%) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (49.0%)
Power Rankings Guru: 38.0%
Last Week: 22.2% (16% increase)
PRG examines various factors in its formula, particularly strength of strength of schedule. And per its method — shield your eyes — Minnesota has the single most demanding schedule remaining.
This site, too, believes the Giants are already cooked, handing New York a 1% probability of hitting the postseason. The Buffalo Bills lead the way at 98.0%
DVOA: 24.4%
Last Week: 16.5% (8% increase)
DVOA is the most comprehensive metric on the list, adjudicating offense, defense, special teams, strength of schedule, etc. It started the season off relatively high on Minnesota, but the Week 2 loss to Atlanta gutted the momentum.
Marshall Gershon at FTNFantasy, the site that houses DVOA, also claims that Minnesota would primarily run the ball in Ireland this weekend.
He wrote, “The Vikings want to run the ball. Even before the game got out of hand last week, the Vikings were leaning on the ground game. Before it became a two-plus-possession game, the Vikings ran 4 times and threw 4 times, and looking at the entire first half, the Vikings ran 13 times and threw just 14 times. While Carson Wentz is a serviceable backup, he’s a backup for a reason, and the Vikings don’t want to rely on him too much, especially against T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ elite pass rush.”
He also predicted that Justin Jefferson would accrue less than 5.5 receptions on Sunday: “Justin Jefferson is obviously a special player, I don’t need to tell you that. But the nice thing about a parlay is we can add correlated picks that the books don’t always punish us for. Justin Jefferson typically goes over 5.5 receptions.
“But in a game where Carson Wentz throws 30 or fewer times, it makes it a lot less likely Jefferson goes over that number. By combining the two picks together, we get a nice correlation boost while still gaining an edge on the books.”
Minnesota put its undefeated-on-foreign-soil streak on the line in Ireland on Sunday. 8-0, including regular season and exhibition games.
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