Vikings Playoff Odds Are Hanging on for Dear Life
One might think that the Minnesota Vikings’ survive-and-advance dub over the Cleveland Browns in London did a body good, but per playoff odds, that win merely kept the club from the basement. Through five games, Minnesota’s playoff math is not ideal.
The Minnesota Vikings’ playoff odds sit near 30%, hanging on for dear life as the season tightens and every game becomes a must-win battle.
The club must rattle off a winning streak sometime soon to keep pace in an ultra-competitive NFC North. Otherwise, it risks getting passed by the Chicago Bears and other NFC wildcard hopefuls.
The Vikings Playoff Odds Are Flapping in the Wind
Pro Football Focus: 33%
According to PFF, Minnesota has similar odds of reaching the playoffs as the Chicago Bears (29%) and Baltimore Ravens (41%). The Vikings are sandwiched between those two teams.
PFF’s Thomas Valentime called Minnesota the league’s 15th-best team entering Week 7 and explained, “The Vikings were on a bye in Week 6 following a two-game stint in London and a win against the Browns in Week 5. The question looming all through the week was the health of J.J. McCarthy.”
“Will the second-year quarterback be ready in time for a Week 7 matchup against the Eagles? If he’s not set to go, we’ll have a Carson Wentz revenge game. Wentz’s 61.8 overall PFF grade is 30th among quarterbacks.”
Power Rankings Guru: 31%
PRG is in the same ballpark as PFF, with a slight 2% reduction.
That site claims that the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the clearest path to the postseason, while the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets are already staving off virtual elimination.
A win by the Vikings over the Eagles would probably shove the playoff math near 40% or higher, per PRG.
Sportsbooks: 29%
Minnesota has a +240 moneyline for the postseason, odds that changed substantially — for the worse — since the start of the regular season, even though Kevin O’Connell’s team has a winning record at the moment.
Bleacher Report‘s Moe Moton on the Vikings at No. 19 in BR’s Week 7 power rankings: “The Minnesota Vikings limped into their Week 6 bye with a banged-up offense. Running back Aaron Jones Sr. is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy is recovering from a high ankle sprain, and his backup, Carson Wentz, played through a left shoulder injury behind an offensive line that featured three reserves filling in for injured starters.”
“While a healthier offense should help the Vikings come out strong from an off week, McCarthy must show improvement upon his return to action. In two games this season, he threw for just 301 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions with a 58.5 percent completion rate. According to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, McCarthy’s status for Week 7 is uncertain.”
ESPN FPI: 23%
ESPN’s Football Power Index gained popularity after shifting the success of its college FPI to the pros.
Minnesota has a 4.1% of reaching the NFC Championship per this metric, and the FPI suggests that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions are the most likely squads to meet in that contest. Conveniently, those two teams meet this weekend as a possible preview of the title game.
ESPN’s FPI, according to its power rankings system, believes Minnesota is as talented as somewhere in the middle of the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos.
DVOA: 16%
If you trust DVOA, the Vikings are pretty much cooked. Sixteen percent is measly and ranks below the Bears at 33%.
There are some positives from FTN Fantasy, the site that houses DVOA. Dan Fornek ranked Minnesota’s offensive line as the 10th-best through six weeks and wrote, “Hopefully, a Week 5 bye week will help the Vikings’ offensive line get healthy. 10 different offensive linemen have played at least 77 snaps this season.
“The lack of consistency has certainly made an impact. Only two of the team’s linemen (Brian O’Neill and Ryan Kelly) have a PFF grade above 65.0. Kelly is out for an undetermined time due to a concussion.”
Write this down: Minnesota needs a nice little win streak to increase its postseason chances. They’re puny right now.
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