Vikings Playoff Chances Take a Sharp Turn
The Minnesota Vikings did not help their cause in Week 2 — at all.
The Vikings’ playoff chances take a big turn entering Week 3. Here’s how Minnesota’s outlook shifts as they prepare to battle the Bengals.
The club played clumsily on Sunday Night Football, decisively losing after an evening of futility and injuries.
Accordingly, the playoff odds shrank for the Vikings. Here’s a look at the damage.
Playoff Odds | Vikings Week 3
The math fell this week, and only wins henceforth can improve it.
PlayoffStatus.com | Odds to Make Playoffs: 36.0%
Last Week: 62.0% (-26% drop)
Minnesota did itself no favors by losing to the Atlanta Falcons last weekend, and the site that was highest on its chances, Playoff Status, brought down the hammer.
This site doesn’t use much scientific method in assigning postseason odds, instead judging wins and losses along per division and conference. That is — Playoff Status doesn’t know or care that the Vikings’ next three games are winnable. Its formula is rather agnostic, so to speak.
NFL.com’s Eric Edholm wrote about Minnesota this week, “It hurts to write this, but J.J. McCarthy has played poorly in seven of his eight quarters — and now he’s considered week to week with a high-ankle sprain, per NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero. The fourth quarter in Chicago was tremendous, but the other seven quarters have included three INTs (one pick-six), nine sacks and a fumble lost. It has been a wild ride with McCarthy, and it’s tough to know how severe the injury is now, but it’s clear things haven’t gone according to plan early.”
“The Vikings will have a chance in the Backup Bowl, with Carson Wentz in line to face the Bengals’ Jake Browning, but this injury could be a huge blow to Minnesota. The offense already was swimming upstream without Jordan Addison and Christian Darrisaw, and now McCarthy’s learning curve will steepen the more time he misses. Another issue: the run defense. It started going south on the first play against the Falcons and never really improved.”
Sportsbooks: 34.1%
Last Week: 52.3% (-18% drop)
The 18% drop doesn’t smile on the Vikings one bit, and they must win two out of the next three games to stay afloat. Thankfully, taking on the Jake Browning-led Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns isn’t too daunting this year.
Minnesota should also get an injection over the next month with the return of injured players to the lineup. Christian Darrisaw, Harrison Smith, Andrew Van Ginkel, Ryan Kelly, Jordan Addison (suspension), and J.J. McCarthy should be back sometime during or shortly after the European trip to Dublin and London.
ESPN called the Vikings the league’s 20th-best team this week, and Kevin Seifert observed about McCarthy: “McCarthy accounted for three touchdowns in a fourth-quarter comeback during Week 1, but the other seven quarters of his first two starts have been rough. Overall, his QBR (20.1) ranks second worst in the league, and there have been times when he has struggled to make basic plays.”
“He has held the ball an average of 3.15 seconds before throwing, second highest in the NFL, and is tied for second in the league with four turnovers. Coach Kevin O’Connell said McCarthy’s development will be a “process.” But at the outset, at least, it has been a struggle. And it won’t be fixed soon since McCarthy could miss the next two to four weeks with a high ankle sprain.”
Power Rankings Guru: 22.2%
Last Week: 53.5% (-31% drop)
This site does factor in the strength of the schedule, past and present, and Minnesota obviously took a gut punch by losing to the Falcons. It should have been a winnable game at home, but Kevin O’Connell’s team proved to be lifeless, if only for a night.
The Buffalo Bills lead the pack per PRG, already possessing a 97.3% chance of reaching the playoffs.
DVOA: 16.5%
Last Week: 48.4% (-32% drop)
The most analytical of all metrics on the list, DVOA doesn’t believe in the purple team at all. The NFC North is just too brutal, as FTN Fantasy, the site hosting DVOA, has already penciled in the Green Bay Packers (80.9%) and Detroit Lions (70.1%) for postseason slots.
Minnesota will need a fancy little winning streak to get back in DVOA’s good graces.
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