J.J. McCarthy Thrives as His Magic Number Arrives
Historically, NFL quarterbacks begin to show their true colors around 250-300 dropbacks. And for Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, that time is now.
With volume has come clarity for J.J. McCarthy, who just stacked his best back-to-back outings as a pro. The Vikings suddenly have a hot quarterback heading into Giants week.
McCarthy crossed the 250-dropback threshold in Week 15 at the Dallas Cowboys, a win by his team on the road in primetime. The 22-year-old is experiencing his lightbulb moment, alas, in his young career, and it is right on schedule.
J.J. McCarthy Hits His NFL Stride
McCarthy has turned a corner, and the timing … makes sense.
McCarthy Balls Out — Again — in Dallas
After shaking off a first-drive interception — a batted pass — McCarthy turned on the electricity. As his team won by eight, McCarthy completed 15 of 24 passes (63%) for a career-high 250 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, and 15 rushing yards.
He finally crossed 200 yards passing a game, a meh standalone feat, but a significant marker for McCarthy. The youngster also played well from cover to cover, whereas in previous outings he often produced lowly quarters only to rescue himself in crunchtime.
McCarthy banked a white-hot 85.6 ESPN QBR — All-Pro level — and ranked sixth-best in the NFL among all quarterbacks in Week 15 EPA+CPOE. And that’s after fetching the same ranking against the Washington Commanders last weekend: the sixth-best passer of Week 14.
He’s growing — and the timing just makes sense.
The 250-300 Dropback Indicator
Historically speaking, NFL quarterbacks come into their own around 250-300 dropbacks. It’s not a whimsical theory. There is documented evidence. You can read it here.
Many, unlike McCarthy, stabilize at 250-300 dropbacks, basically becoming a more polished version of themselves from the first 249 dropbacks. McCarthy has flipped the script right when history says most passers display their long-term trajectory.
It’s actually quite remarkable. McCarthy’s efficiency through six starts scraped the bottom of the barrel, drawing comparisons to infamous busts like JaMarcus Russell. Most expected a turnaround for McCarthy to hopefully play average or decent, getting out of the Russellian rut.
Instead, McCarthy skipped the decent or average part altogether. Right when he approached and hit the 250-dropback mark, he went from mostly terrible to mostly great. What a world.
Terrible Performance until Week 14
McCarthy had one thing going for him before his impressive performance against the Commanders: he played well in the clutch for some reason. And then that was pretty much it.
The 22-year-old struggled with basic functionality to start his career, missing mundane completions and causing his offense to stall repeatedly on 3rd Down. He flat-out wasn’t any good — until the 4th Quarter, when he authored memorable moments against the Chicago Bears (twice) and Detroit Lions. The “crunchtime McCarthy” was a saving grace, offering clues that convinced some fans the guy wasn’t wholly rotten.
Now, however, everything has clicked. McCarthy isn’t just playing well for a 22-year-old. He has performed at a Top 10 NFL QB clip in back-to-back games — right when the numbers show that quarterbacks’ true colors bleed through.
Giants Another “Easy” Defense This Weekend
Here is a secret. McCarthy is carving up crappy defense. Plain and simple:
Defensive DVOA Ranking,
Through Week 15:
Commanders: 27th
Giants: 28th
Cowboys: 30th
Some McCarthy naysayers are quick to withhold credit because the competition isn’t good. Well, there was a world — like a month ago — where McCarthy would have made the Commanders and Cowboys defenses look otherworldly. Thankfully for his sake, he diced them up.
Now, with the 250-300 dropbacks mark firmly in play, McCarthy must smack the Giants’ defense around, too. That’s how this goes. He doesn’t have time to return to his utterly terrible ways. The 250-300 dropback rule claims those horrendous outings should be mostly in the rearview.
More McCarthy Perspective
Our Janik Eckardt on McCarthy in Week 15: “J.J. McCarthy was coming off his best performance as a pro, and all he did was play even better. His counting statistics look average with 250 passing yards, two touchdowns through the air and one interception, but the advanced numbers loved the game. McCarthy contributed an EPA/Play of 0.54.”
“For those unfamiliar, that’s pretty much an elite number. His 15.4 expected points added place him at the top of all Vikings QB performances this season. The young passer hit some explosive passes, smartly checked the ball down when it was needed, and took advantage of his athleticism a few times. McCarthy wasn’t flawless in his eighth career start, but he certainly looked like an NFL quarterback with enormous potential.”
Most bustworthy 1st-Round quarterback don’t post elite games around 250-300 dropbacks.
Eckardt continued, “That was the kind of player the Vikings spent a first-round pick to acquire. He has three more games on the schedule to prove that he should be the QB1 moving forward. Sunday was the kind of contest a bad QB usually can’t provide. The Vikings are 6-8 and won’t play meaningful football to close out the season, at least when it comes to the playoffs.”
“Sunday’s game was undoubtedly meaningful because McCarthy showed that he can be a quarterback in this league. They played on national television in a meaningless road game against a team that still had something to play for and just executed at a high level. That outing deserves some respect.”
The Vikings are early 2.5-point favorites to defeat the Giants on Sunday.
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