3 Ways the Vikings Can Beat the Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons hope to erase the memory of a Week 1 loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night, taking on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Vikings have a clear path to victory on SNF if they play it right. Here are three ways Minnesota can beat the Falcons and head to 2-0.
Per DVOA, the Falcons checked in as the NFL’s 22nd-best team after Week 1. Minnesota pulled down the No. 12 ranking.
And if the Vikings wish to be triumphant, here’s how they can take down Raheem Morris and friends.
3 Keys to Vikings for the Vikings over Falcons
It’s Minnesota at Atlanta in Minneapolis for a second straight year.
1. Contain Bijan Robinson
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a franchise with longstanding ties to top-notch rushing defense, held Robinson and Atlanta’s rushing offense in check last weekend. He broke off 24 rushing yards on 12 carries, and then that was it.
Robinson, though, doesn’t stay down for long, largely considered a Top 1, Top 2, or Top 3 NFL running back. Just because he struggled out of the gate in 2024 doesn’t mean he’ll be quiet on Sunday Night Football. Step One for the Vikings defeating Atlanta is keeping Robinson in check.
And, yes, this means simply preventing him from a monster game. If Robinson totals 85 rushing yards or so — fine. In fact, that should be expected. One of his monster games, however, could dagger Minnesota, and he’s ultra-capable of it.
The Athletic‘s Josh Kendall noted on Atlanta’s rushing offense this week: “The one thing almost nobody thought about was the run game. Atlanta was a top-10 rushing team in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s first season and returned Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and enough of its offensive line that it expected to be able to count on the rushing attack even if it couldn’t count on much else.”
“Instead, the Falcons (0-1) rushed for 69 yards in Week 1’s 23-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and were faced with a sobering film review Monday. Nearly a third of the Falcons’ rushing yards came from Penix, who gained 21 yards scrambling. Robinson and Allgeier each finished with 24 yards and averaged fewer than 2.5 yards per carry.”
Under Brian Flores, Minnesota has made a practice of stopping the run effectively without a true nose tackle.
“Atlanta’s rushing performance was the NFL’s worst of Week 1 as measured by expected points added (minus-10.59), and it was the team’s worst effort since Week 15 of the 2023 season against the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons ran the ball four times on third-and-1, fourth-and-1 or first-and-goal from the 1 — two by Robinson and two by Allgeier,” Kendall added.
“They only converted one of those attempts and totaled minus-2 yards on the four carries. The run game’s struggles don’t seem to have dissuaded the Falcons from relying heavily on the pistol formation, in which Penix stands 5 yards behind center Ryan Neuzil, rather than 7 yards in a traditional shotgun formation.”
2. Avoid the Vanilla, Underneath Playcalling
During J.J. McCarthy’s first start, head coach Kevin O’Connell kept the offense basic, underneath, and no-frills in the first half. That did not work. That did not work one bit.
The moment O’Connell let McCarthy cook — near the end of the 1st Half, with a pass to Jalen Nailor, which set up a 59-yard field goal from Will Reichard — the tide began to turn for Minnesota. While O’Connell does not have to ask McCarthy for 50+ passing attempts, he must avoid that dink-and-dunk vanilla offense. O’Connell is not on this planet to coach small ball.
Let it rip with McCarthy, just as a playcaller would do with Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins, and let the chips fall.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
Often, under O’Connell, Vikings football is a simple litmus test of which team protects the ball.
Since he arrived in Minneapolis, the Vikings are 31-3 (.912) when they win the turnover battle or break even. And in games where the turnover differential is upside down for Minnesota, well, O’Connell is 4-14 (.222).
This is probably the most stark Vikings statistic you will find. Think of it this way: when Minnesota wins the turnover battle or breaks even, it is the very best team in the NFL. As in — that’s a fact. No team has a better record since the start of 2022 with this parameter.
On the other hand, the 4-13 mark when losing the turnover battle ranks 18th leaguewide.
So, if you see the Vikings forcing turnovers on defense and protecting the rock on offense and special teams, you are watching the best team in the business. When that does not happen, you are watching the most mediocre product imaginable.
Therefore, to beat the Falcons, Minnesota might need a net zero with the turnover differential or to win it. The formula is pretty damn battle-tested.
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