The Vikings Must Confront a Painful Reality
In April 2024, the Minnesota Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy after cutting ties with Kirk Cousins a month prior. McCarthy missed his rookie season with a torn meniscus before taking the reins of the QB1 job this season. But the man has played miserably through six starts, and the franchise must ponder an inconvenient truth: he may simply be awful.
The Minnesota Vikings must confront a painful reality as flaws, pressure points, and long-term concerns collide, reshaping what comes next.
There’s a difference between quarterback development and guaranteed futility each week. For now, onlookers have been sold the development package, which is completely understandable.
But it may not be true.
Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy Could Be a Bust. There Are Many in NFL History.
This is the counterpoint to the “trust the process” narrative.
Vikings Are Nearly 2 Years thru the McCarthy Era — Not “6 Games”
A popular and mostly fair narrative about McCarthy? “It’s only been six games for the guy. Give it time.”
For his personal leeway, this is true. However, the Vikings must operate as if McCarthy is completing his second season. In theory, observing from the sidelines for a full season in 2024, McCarthy should have made him extra game-ready, like a quarterback from Green Bay Packers history who sat and watched until Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers walked away.
Conversely, McCarthy seems like the opposite: he might’ve been hindered by watching and learning for a year. You know, the exact opposite of what you might want to unfold.
Minnesota must view McCarthy through the lens of a second-year quarterback. Instead, there’s a temptation to ignore his entire rookie campaign because it’s convenient. And it must be noted: a quarterback struggling as much as McCarthy as he rounds the corner on his second season is borderline unfathomable.
1st-Round Busts Happen, and McCarthy Could Be One
Since 2010, approximately 23.5% of 1st-Round quarterbacks have “busted” in the pros. They didn’t pan out for the teams that selected them, and they didn’t even really latch on as productive QB2s.
Here’s the list:
- Blaine Gabbert
- Trey Lance
- Jake Locker
- Paxton Lynch
- EJ Manuel
- Johnny Manziel
- Christian Ponder
- Anthony Richardson
- Josh Rosen
- Brandon Weeden
- Zach Wilson
And that list doesn’t even count Blake Bortles or Robert Griffin III, who flashed momentarily before falling on the ash heap of draft history.
It’s mind-boggling to stomach that Minnesota picked a terrible quarterback, but in reality, it happens frequently. About one in four 1st-Round quarterback selections in the last 15 years result in utter ineptitude.
In that vein, it’s not supernatural that this may have occurred to the Vikings.
There Is No Growth
The Athletic‘s Alec Lewis tweeted Monday morning, “813 QBs have thrown 150 passes in a season since 2005. J.J. McCarthy 807th in EPA per dropback.”
McCarthy is delivering one of the very worst six-game starts to an NFL quarterback’s career — ever. If he showed gradual growth each week, this article wouldn’t be necessary. But the guy seems to be getting worse by the minute. His confidence may be shattered and ravaged.
There are a few outcomes when a franchise spends a 1st-Round pick on a quarterback;
- The guy takes off as a long-term starter right away, beyond the shadow of a doubt, like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert.
- The guy takes off a mid-tier starter after early struggles like Trevor Lawrence or Tua Tagovailoa.
- The guy doesn’t take off and is relegated to backup duty before too long.
The Vikings are closest to bucket No. 3 right now.
Is McCarthy Even Capable of a Lightbulb Moment?
Optimists will hold out hope that McCarthy will simply click and showcase some revolutionary breakout game. You know what? That’s awesome. It hurts nobody to think that way. Maybe it’ll happen.
But one must wonder if that’s even realistic. Six full games would have to be bizarre outliers that wrongly portrayed McCarthy. He’s also surrounded by a depth chart that most 22-year-old quarterbacks don’t have. First-round passers often begin their careers with awful organizations, and then, with some adept general management, the pieces flow accordingly after a couple of offseasons.
Or — pretend McCarthy does stumble into a lightbulb moment. When will that occur? Will he continue to perform like the worst passer in human history indefinitely? Does Minnesota risk locker room mutiny if it trots out the worst possible option at quarterback every Sunday?
The lightbulb theory could certainly get cooking in the future, but there’s a more obvious reality that McCarthy could be bread dough with no yeast.
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