The Blueprint for the Vikings against the Giants
The New York Giants are not a good football team — at all — mainly because injuries have ravaged the offensive playmakers, and they’re operating with a makeshift coaching staff. Here’s how the Minnesota Vikings can beat them this week.
The Giants’ weaknesses are clear, but the Vikings have to actually exploit them—run with intent, stay ahead of the sticks, and play clean.
Minnesota is riding the momentum of a two-game winning streak, and truth be told, the club should have no problems extending that mark.
Four Keys for the Vikings to Beat the Giants
Yes, the Vikings should beat the Giants. Handily, even.
1. Run the Football 25-35 Times
In the last two games, Vikings head coach and playcaller Kevin O’Connell has realized that he can and should run the ball more than he passes. The plan has worked, unlocking J.J. McCarthy to his fullest current potential by taking the onus off his plate while the Vikings won both games.
The trend must continue.
There’s no sugarcoating the matchup on the ground. The Giants have been unable to stop the run all season, and the numbers have settled the argument. Nobody in the league gives up rushing production more easily, and that weakness has followed them week after week.
What complicates things for Minnesota is that the Vikings haven’t truly punished anyone on the ground lately. The last time a Vikings runner cracked the 100-yard mark was back in Week 3, when Cincinnati was overwhelmed. Since then, the run game has hovered between quiet and nonexistent, rarely dictating anything.
That disconnect sets up an obvious inflection point. Against a defense that simply cannot hold the line, O’Connell has every reason to lean harder into the run than usual. Expect a heavier workload, something closer to 30 rushing attempts, not out of stubbornness, but because the matchup almost demands it.
The Vikings will win if they run the ball 25+ times. And that’s not a difficult threshold to cross.
2. Convert on 3rd Down
The Vikings rank second-to-last leaguewide in offensive 3rd Down conversion percentage, one of the main reasons their record is upside down. Against Washington two weeks ago, McCarthy and friends went 6 for 11 on 3rd Down — and they won the game 31-0. At Dallas, Minnesota stunk it up on 3rd Down (2 for 11), but bailed itself out by a 3-for-3 mark on 4th Down.
Versus the lowly Giants, the Vikings must convert at least 50% of 3rd Downs. There are no excuses.
NBC News‘ Andrew Greif wrote about the Vikings’ offense after the win over Dallas, “The offensive turnaround was a twist from earlier this season, when the Vikings managed just six points total in a two-game stretch last month. Since they were shut out in Week 13, however, the Vikings have scored 31 and 34 points in their last two games.”
“It has not been enough to keep them alive for the postseason, but it was an encouraging sight after McCarthy had struggled for much of his first full season. Chicago’s win earlier Sunday in Week 15, hours before kickoff in Dallas, was enough to eliminate the Vikings and ensure the franchise still will have not made the postseason in consecutive seasons since 2008-09..”
3. Win the Turnover Battle
If you read VikingsTerritory articles weekly, you’re probably sick of this one.
O’Connell’s Vikings turn into one of the best teams in the NFL — like a 15-2 club scaled to a 17-game season — when they win the turnover battle or break even. Conversely, when they lose the turnover differential, which has happened too often this season, they transform into a 4-13 club.
New York will probably find ways to cough up the rock on offense and special teams; the Vikings must seize those opportunities. Minnesota won last week while narrowly losing the turnover battle. It likely won’t get away with it two weeks in a row.
Vikings safety Harrison Smith said after his team’s Week 15 shutout win over the Commanders about the turnover battle, “You tend to win ball games when you do that. We talk about it a lot, we just haven’t done enough to make it happen this year. When it does, though, it’s a lot of fun.”
4. Confuse Jaxson Dart
Dart is the NFL’s 14th-best passer per EPA+CPOE through 15 weeks, notably outranking veterans like Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Bo Nix. The guy is doing all the right things in his rookie season, even if he’s a little reckless running the football like a tailback.
But here’s the deal: Dart has never seen a defense like Flores’.
Just as Flores does to all young quarterbacks, there’s a pretty damn good chance that Flores scripts the defensive gameplan to flummox Dart. In the past, that has worked against first- and second-year passers.
Don’t overthink it: disguise everything against Dart; he is destined to make a few mistakes. Take advantage of his inexperience, as the Giants will try to do against McCarthy.
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