At Long Last, The Vikings Have Sunk to Rock Bottom in a Critical Spot
A slow-moving crisis, to be sure.
Vikings Territory has been discussing the issue for a little while, talking about how the 2026 budget is looking pretty grim. What’s notable about the present-day reality is simply that the Vikings have — according to Over the Cap, perhaps the leading online authority on the NFL cap — sunk to the very bottom of the projected cap room in 2026.
The Vikings Have Dropped to the Bottom for ’26 Cap Space
Just how bad is the cap outlook? Put it this way: finding $60 million in increased cap room would still involve Minnesota not having any open cap space (at least per the current estimate). The Vikings are sitting in dead last in the NFL for open cap space. Put differently, there is no open cap space; rather, there’s a league-worst $60.822 million in debt for next year (again, per the estimate).
So, not ideal.
Consider a few guardrails before we get too far down the doom-and-gloom path (a well-travelled path to Minnesotans who follow sports). We’re still a long way from next March. At that time, the Vikings will need to be underneath the salary cap threshold. Right now, there’s no downside in being over the cap — tip of the cap to the site — other than the sense of dread that it may evoke in fans (front office?).
Of course, many will think of J.J. McCarthy. He is replacing Kirk Cousins/Sam Darnold. Isn’t the savings from his rookie deal meant to offset the issue? Yes, but only to a certain extent.
J.J. McCarthy is doing some heavy lifting when it comes to helping to balance the books. The young QB1 has just a $4,966,999 cap charge currently and a $5,960,399 charge for next season. Provided he lives up to expectations, McCarthy is offering the team tremendous savings. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is leaning into those savings by beefing up the roster with veteran talent aplenty.
The problem is simply that players who are sitting at $10 million cap charges and/or higher start to add up.
Consider that Justin Jefferson is sitting at $38,987,600 for next season. Brian O’Neill is sitting at $23,203,892. Christian Darrisaw comes in at $23,141,929, Jonathan Greenard at $22,300,000, Jonathan Allen at $21,616,666, Javon Hargrave at $21,497,500, and Andrew Van Ginkel at $19,400,000. Don’t forget Byron Murphy Jr. ($19,570,000), Will Fries ($17,220,000), Aaron Jones ($14,000,000), and Ryan Kelly ($12,117,500).
The Vikings have recognized that the contention window could be open. The Vikings have responded by ensuring that several excellent players got strong deals. The approach does have a lot of merit.
As you can see, though, the cap hits start to add up.
Consider a bit of recent news: the extension for tight end Josh Oliver. The excellent TE2 is now on the books for next season at a cap hit that’s a hair below $10 million. Partner that with T.J. Hockenson (more than $21 million) and the Vikings have a very expensive TE tandem, one that sees their combined ’26 hit exceed $30 million. Pricey.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is going to have some work to do. Part of the solution rests in the current cap space — a bit beyond $23.5 million — which is money that can get carried over if it goes unused. In other words, savings in 2025 can help with debt in 2026. Nevertheless, there’s going to be some tough decisions to make for the GM who is adept at working with numbers.
The good news? The cap space is lacking but the draft picks aren’t, allowing the team to acquire young talent for cheap in 2026.
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