NFL Insider Predicts Sam Darnold’s Offseason Fate

Somebody will pay Sam Darnold between $30 and $45 million per year this offseason, and one NFL insider claims it won’t be the Minnesota Vikings.
NFL Insider Predicts Sam Darnold’s Offseason Fate
Before floundering in Minnesota’s final two games of the 2024 campaign, Darnold furnished MVP statistics, delivering 35 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions with 4,319 passing yards. Meanwhile, the purple franchise has rookie J.J. McCarthy waiting to take over as QB1; it’s just a matter of when on McCarthy, who tore his meniscus last August and missed the entire year.

And per ESPN’s Dan Graziano, the Vikings simply won’t be able to afford Darnold’s asking price. “My anticipation on Darnold is that he will probably have a FA market that prices himself out of what Minnesota wants to do given that J.J. McCarthy is coming there … So where does that leave Sam Darnold? I’ll be surprised if he’s back on the Vikings,” Graziano said on Unsportsmanlike Radio late last week.
As of early February, the Vikings have around $60 million in cap space, which will decline quickly if Darnold is re-signed at market value — probably why Graziano doesn’t see a reunion in order for 2025.
What’s more, quarterback-hungry franchises will explore Darnold’s free agency if he hits the open market in March, potentially including clubs like the Las Vegas Raiders, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New York Giants. Those teams may be willing to oblige Darnold’s would-be asking price of $30-$45 million.
Free agency is just five weeks away.

Darnold chatted with SiriusXM Radio last week, sounding like a player who will test free agency. “I’ve put a little bit of thought into it. I’m not going to share anything about, kind of, what I’ve been thinking or, obviously, the conversations I’ve had behind closed doors,” Darnold said.
“There’s obviously, a lot that’s going to happen still, even after the Super Bowl. So, I’m just going to continue to talk to my agent and figure things out from there.”

Ten days ago, the 27-year-old posted [what seemed like] a sentimental goodbye note on Instagram. “Year 7 … So grateful for my teammates, coaches, and the entire organization. We created memories and relationships that will last a lifetime and we got to do it in front of the best fanbase in the world #SKOL,” Darnold wrote on January 31st.
The Vikings will decide on Darnold within the next 35 days, perhaps well before that.

If Minnesota does not re-sign Darnold — per the Graziano prediction — it will presumably roll with J.J. McCarthy in 2025 while possibly re-signing Daniel Jones, who is also attached to the current roster orbit but scheduled to hit free agency like Darnold.
NFL award voters nominated Darnold for the league’s Comeback Player of the Year Award last week, though Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow is expected to win it.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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