Ivan Pace Jr. and The Storm Clouds Gathering Over Minnesota
Success comes at a cost, a statement that can be understood in a very literal manner within the context of the NFL.
Undersized linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. has been a tremendous success since joining the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2023. Most UDFAs are lucky just to snag a roster spot. Pace smashed expectations, stealing away a starting spot on defense by quickly proving to be a weapon for Brian Flores’ aggressive defense. The young defender is now moving into the final season of his contract before becoming an RFA, leading to questions about what’s next.
Ivan Pace Jr. & The Vikings’ Storm Clouds
Earlier in the week, Dustin Baker spent some time chatting about Mr. Pace in a piece for Vikings Territory.
The basic idea is that since Fred Warner — the 49ers’ All Pro linebacker — snagged a hearty payday, then all linebacker stand to benefit. Pace, one of these linebackers, is staring down a well-deserved raise in the not-too-distant future.
Baker’s take: “Warner, now the league’s highest-paid inside linebacker, earns $21 million per season — that was high-end quarterback money 10 years ago — and Pace Jr. can use that upper limit as a barometer for his next deal.”
Keep in mind that we’re talking about a Vikings team that is already sitting on $53.7 million in debt for the 2026 budget. Adding a beefy Pace payday into the mix would only sink the number lower. Thus, storm clouds.
Truth be told, the simple fact that Pace slid out of the draft entirely remains a befuddling reality. A redo of the 2023 event would lead to him getting scooped up. Most likely, pretty high.
Playing for Cincinnati in 2022, Pace put together some eye-popping numbers. The linebacker had 137 tackles, 10 sacks, 22 tackles for loss, 4 passes defended, and 3 forced fumbles. Just sizzling production for the linebacker and an accurate reflection of the manner in which he plays. Combine the sacks with the TFLs and we’re talking about a stunning 32 plays made behind the line of scrimmage.
The NFL production doesn’t have the same extravagance (at least not yet) but still signs of ample promise. Mr. Pace’s rookie season involved getting onto the field for all seventeen games while earning eleven starts on defense. He responded by giving Flores 102 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 9 QB hits, 2 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 2 passes defended, and 1 forced fumble. The DC was even able to get frisky with some blitzes, sending Pace 74 times. On average, that’s 4 or more blitzes per game.
The encore season encountered some turbulence insofar as Ivan Pace worked through injury. He therefore saw his games drop to eleven with ten starts. In that opportunity, Pace snagged 72 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 QB hits, 7 tackles for loss, 1 interception, and 1 pass defended. Oh, and another thing: Pace got sent on 44 blitz, a perfect average of 4 blitzes per game.
The PFF nerds in the crowd will be pleased to know that Pace has received promising grades from the website.
The 2023 season finished off with a very impressive 77.1 grade, good for 16th among 82 linebackers under consideration. The 2024 season — perhaps due to injury — saw the grade dip down to 63.0, finishing off at 47th out of 84 under consideration. The simplest breakdown of his game in 2024 suggests that he’s a very good run defender, a very good pass rusher, and very poor in pass coverage (at least per PFF).
Far too often, football coaches get sidetracked by what a player can’t do rather than what he can do. Brian Flores, to his credit, does a nice job of amplifying his players’ strengths. Quite possibly, Ivan Pace never develops his coverage skills so that he can reflect the prime version of Eric Kendricks. What he can offer, though, is an unusual degree of excellence when chasing down runners and getting after quarterbacks.
Is there some sort of middle ground where Pace gets the raise he deserves while the Vikings can somehow make the money work?
Only 24, Ivan Pace Jr. is still improving. He could be a fixture in the Vikings’ defense for years to come if the finances get sorted out.
The final year of Pace’s rookie deal involves the linebacker scooping up a $1,036,668 cap hit.
Editor’s Note: Information from Sports Reference CFB, Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and Bluesky (@VikingsGazette). If you feel so inclined, subscribe to his Substack, The Vikings Gazette, for more great Vikings content.
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