The Hidden Elements That Could Tilt Vikings–Bears
Roles have been reversed for the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears. Normally, at this time in a given season, the Vikings have a winning record or something close to it, while the Bears are in a losing shape, similar to Minnesota at the moment.
A look at the hidden elements that could tilt Vikings–Bears, breaking down the quiet advantages and pressure points that might shape Sunday’s result.
But not in 2025. The Bears are 6-3, with the Vikings at 4-5. Accordingly, these are the storylines to monitor on Sunday.
Key Storylines for Bears at Vikings
What to know for the NFC North tryst.
1. Bears Only Beat Bad Teams — Are the Vikings One of Those?
Bears fans will cry foul, but this statistic is not designed to insult the franchise or cause harm: Chicago’s strength of victory in 2025 is .272. What does that mean? In the games it has won, the opponent has a win percentage, on average, of .272. That means that all of the Bears’ wins have occurred versus teams that will later finish the season around 4-13 or 5-12.
Then, when Chicago has lost, the opponents were the Vikings, the Detroit Lions, and the Baltimore Ravens.
So, it’s simple: Chicago beats poor teams and loses to decent or good ones.
Where are the Week 11 Vikings on this scale? Nobody knows. But we will find out.
2. Kevin O’Connell Getting the Memo about Rushing Offense
Minnesota averaged 6.7 yards per rushing attempt last weekend during its loss to Baltimore. Great, right? Yes. But it didn’t matter.
O’Connell green-lit his offense to throw the ball 42 times — with a 22-year-old quarterback — and run the ball on just 18 occasions.
When the ground game works to the tune of 6.7 yards per carry, O’Connell should call rushing plays 42 times and throw it 18. This is common sense.
When asked this week about the split, O’Connell didn’t necessarily say he planned to run more often. But the logic just has to be crystal-clear. We shall see if he gets the memo.
3. Can the Vikings Stave Off Emotional Playoff Elimination?
Somewhat straightforwardly, Minnesota can jump right back into the playoff chase with a dub over Chicago. The franchise would return to .500 and need a 5-2 record in Week 12 and beyond to entertain the postseason.
That’s the rosy angle.
Losing, however, at home against Chicago would create emotional elimination, with mathematical elimination to follow by mid-December. The Vikings cannot reach the postseason if they lose back-to-back home games to the beatable Ravens and Bears.
The 4-6 hold is too tricky to circumvent with nine NFC teams currently holding .500 or better records.
4. Justin Jefferson Proposed Bounceback
Jefferson struggled in Week 10. He knew. Fans knew it. The guy looked pissed and even disinterested.
Great athletes almost always rebound from trashy performances, and with the Vikings in 2025, the club absolutely needs Jefferson to get back to his electric ways. Meanwhile, Chicago does not employ otherworldly defensive backs. They can get got.
Jefferson said this week, “Of course, the outcome of the game is us losing, and I was the one that’s getting thrown that ball and it is getting picked off. So, a lot of emotion goes towards that. But at the end of the day, I want to win, and I’m an ultra-competitor, and a lot of people that don’t play this game and don’t play sports don’t understand the competitive side of it.”
“So yeah, I want to win, and emotionally, things get heated sometimes, and things weren’t going our way at that moment. So, just wanting a better outcome. And of course, the offense that we have, I feel like we should be playing better than what we are.”
Fans have pondered a nuclear bounceback game for Jefferson this weekend. Will it happen?
NFL.com‘s Kevin Patra on Jefferson: “In the Week 10 loss to Baltimore, Jefferson’s frustration was evident. He caught four of 12 targets for 37 yards. He was targeted on two of McCarthy’s interceptions, including one in which he slipped, and couldn’t hang onto a potential touchdown on one of the young QB’s better passes.”
“Jefferson insisted his stats aren’t the cause of his frustration. It’s the losing that irks him. Jefferson made it clear his frustration isn’t with McCarthy, whom he called a ‘great quarterback’ and a ‘great kid.’ With Jefferson’s production and the Vikings winning going hand-in-hand, McCarthy and his QB need to fill the perceived chemistry gap in a hurry if the season is to be salvaged.”
5. J.J. McCarthy Consistency
McCarthy was marvelous in the 1st quarters of the games versus the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens. McCarthy was marvelous in the 4th quarter against the Bears in Week 1.
His consistency throughout an entire game — whenever that may arrive — is the next step. What’s happening with him right now is completely normal, textbook quarterback development. Around 250-300 dropbacks, a quarterback’s true profile begins to emerge. For McCarthy, barring another injury, that’s this December.
He can get a head start this Sunday by stringing together four productive quarters. If so, Minnesota will win.
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