Former Viking Creeps into MVP Conversation
In the last 10 months, Daniel Jones has gone from a Minnesota Vikings practice squader to an MVP candidate for the Indianapolis Colts.
One former Minnesota Vikings player has entered the mix for the 2025 NFL MVP award, which is wild, and folks wonder if it’s sustainable.
Jones’ true test will be producing consistently throughout 18 weeks, but the man has absolutely played his way into MVP conversations by late September.
The sportsbooks’ math is there for Jones’ Most Valuable Player climb.
Exiled Vikings QB Nibbling at League MVP Out of the Gate
Whoodathunkit on Daniel Jones, right?
Daniel Jones Off to Hot Start with Colts
The Colts signed Daniel Jones in March, on tap to compete in the summer with Anthony Richardson for the QB1 post after Jones got the vibe that he would not start in Minnesota, no matter what, if he re-signed with Kevin O’Connell’s team. Minnesota seemed to have settled on 22-year-old passer J.J. McCarthy, a theory that later came to fruition.
Jones later won the competition over Richardson, and heading into Week 4, it’s easy to see why. The former New York Giant has led the Colts to an unforeseen 3-0 record, while delivering 816 passing yards, 6 total touchdowns, and no interceptions or fumbles.
In short, especially in recent Colts’ quarterback lore, Jones has performed flawlessly, and that’s not an exaggeration. He’s Josh Allen right now without Josh Allen’s steady long-term resume.
The MVP Odds Are There
Jones as the MVP isn’t just a scratch-the-surface take. The math is there from oddsmakers.
Here’s the lay of the land after Week 3 in the NFL per MVP probability:
- Josh Allen: +220
- Lamar Jackson: +320
- Justin Herbert: +500
- Jordan Love: +1400
- Baker Mayfield: +1600
- Jayden Daniels: +1600
- Matthew Stafford: +2000
- Jalen Hurts: +2200
- Patrick Mahomes: +2500
- Jared Goff: +3000
- Daniel Jones: +4000
- Caleb Williams: +6000
- Brock Purdy: +6000
- Aaron Rodgers: +6500
- Sam Darnold: +8000
A player with Jones’ statistics in three games would normally rank in the Top 5, but Jones, for better or worse, is fighting the “well, it’s Daniel Jones” stigma.
Can Jones Maintain the Pace?
The kicker for Jones is continuity. Even in their heart of hearts, Colts fans may be waiting for the bottom to fall out. Why? Well, Jones has created patches of success at times in his seven-season career — Vikings fans will remember December 2022 and January 2023, which enabled Jones to get paid megabucks — but he’s never followed through for longer than a month or two.
He will throw interceptions, and he will fumble the ball. It will happen. But Jones will be tasked with maintaining winning ways even when adversity hits, from his own performance or his team’s. That’s what an MVP does.
One thing is sure, though. The numbers in September suggest Jones as a bona fide MVP candidate. The man hasn’t made mistakes — usually his undoing in the past with the Giants.
Don’t Forget the Vikings’ Compensatory Pick
From a Vikings standpoint, Jones’ breakout in Indianapolis is a compensatory gravy train.
When general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah signed Jones to his practice squad in 2024 as insurance for Sam Darnold, most folks smelled a comp pick chess game from the young executive. That theory feels vindicated months later.
If Jones keeps it up — doesn’t relinquish the QB1 job to Anthony Richardson or anyone else — Minnesota will fetch a 4th-Round draft pick next April. Should Jones fail to take 60.6% of the Colts’ offensive snaps, the comp pick would transform into a 5th-Rounder, or so the compensatory math claims.
The path is vividly clear for the Vikings to grab a 4th-Rounder due to Jones’ sizzle in Indianapolis.
NFL.com on Jones’ MVP Hopes
Jeff Chadiha analyzed Jones’ MVP hopes this week: “The Colts are easily the biggest surprise in the NFL, driven by the spectacular play of reborn quarterback Daniel Jones. He’s now the first player in the Super Bowl era to have at least three touchdown passes, three rushing touchdowns and no turnovers in the first three games of a season.”
“What’s scary is that he just seems to be getting started. Jones is utilizing all the benefits that came with joining the Colts and beating out former first-round pick Anthony Richardson for the starting job. Running back Jonathan Taylor has been excellent. Jones has a variety of playmakers in the passing game, including rookie tight end Tyler Warren and wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce.”
Sportsbooks believe the Colts have a 77% chance of reaching the postseason after their 3-0 start.
“The Colts’ defense also has been vastly improved, as that unit has forced five turnovers this season. You can quibble with the opponents Indianapolis has beaten — nobody in that group has a winning a record and the most recent victory, a 41-20 bashing on Tennessee, came against the team that picked first overall in last year’s draft — but the Colts don’t care,” Chadiah continued.
“The AFC South is one of the softest divisions in football, and the team that won it last year, the Texans, is currently sitting at 0-3. The Colts haven’t started this fast since 2009. They don’t look like a team that is about to melt down any time soon. DECISION: BUY”
A Colts player hasn’t won the MVP award in 16 years: Peyton Manning in 2009.
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