Every Metric Points to the Same Vikings Season Outcome
The Minnesota Vikings have an impressive depth chart when it’s not utterly sullied by injuries, so much so that oddsmakers believed the franchise would finish 10-7 or 9-8 in 2025. Now, however, that projection has been dialed back.
Even though the Minnesota Vikings have a winning record at the moment, the powers that be believe the team will end up in the same spot or thereabouts.
The club has put five games on tape, and coming out of a bye week, the numbers seem to say the same thing about Minnesota: they’re likely no better than a mediocre team.
Projections for the Vikings’ Season after 5 Weeks
Most predictive metrics don’t foresee Minnesota reaching the postseason.
PFF Win-Loss Prediction: 9-8
Pro Football Focus believes Minnesota will finish with 8.9 wins, along with a 37% chance of reaching the postseason. The sports-grading outlet also mentions that the Vikings have the NFL’s toughest remaining schedule.
PFF’s Thomas Valentine on the purple team: “It wasn’t easy, but the Vikings found a way to end their two-week stint in London with a win over the Cleveland Browns.”
“The Vikings were missing a plethora of starters along the offensive line and on defense, but still managed to get the job done courtesy of a late Jordan Addison touchdown grab and now move to 3-2 on the season. As up-and-down as the offense may be, the defense still ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed.”
ELO Win-Loss Prediction: 9-8
Here’s the skinny on NFLELO: “NFLELO is a predictive model for NFL games that combines 538’s Elo rating system with research-driven modifications to create a model tailored specifically to the NFL—hence the name nfelo (NFL + Elo).”
“Mechanically, the nfelo model enhances the traditional Elo approach by incorporating: Advanced statistical adjustments for home field advantage, rest days, and weather conditions. Quarterback-specific models that account for individual player performance and injuries. Real-time market analysis to identify value in betting lines and spreads. Historical performance data spanning multiple seasons for robust predictions.”
ELO calls Minnesota the NFL’s 12th-best team, accompanied by a 9-8 record prediction.
ESPN FPI Win-Loss Prediction: 8-9
ESPN’s FPI metric claims that Minnesota is the NFL’s 19th-best team and projects an 8-9 record when it’s all said and done.
What’s FPI? A ‘Football Power Index’ that ESPN describes in this manner: “At its core, NFL FPI is a prediction system for the NFL. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections. In the preseason, FPI uses a number of predictive factors to project future team strength.”
“The main component of preseason FPI is Vegas expectations; the expected win totals and money lines for each team are an accurate representation of predicted team strength and provide a strong baseline for teams entering the season. But relying solely on Vegas has its flaws, and more information is needed to determine what percentage of a team’s projected win total can be attributed to its offense, defense and special teams units — the components that make up FPI.”
Sportsbooks Win-Loss Prediction: 8-9 or 7-10
When the regular season kicked off one month ago, sportsbooks had bumped the Vikings’ win-loss over-under to 9.5 games. The roster deserved it: Minnesota doesn’t really have weak spots on the depth chart.
However, injuries have crushed the purple team, so much so that it won a game in London without seven starters last weekend.
Now, the Vegas moneyline sits at 7.5 games for Kevin O’Connell’s team, suggesting a losing record and a Round 1 draft pick around No. 12 or so next April.
DVOA: 8-9
And perhaps the most trustworthy metric, DVOA claims the purple team will meander into a losing record, the dreaded new version of 8-8.
DVOA claims the Vikings will finish in the NFC North’s basement, slightly below the Chicago Bears due to a tiebreaker.
Overall, the picture that is painted is that of a very mediocre team on an inevitable collision course with a middling record.
You must be logged in to post a comment.